Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Early-life soy exposure and age at menarche.

This study examines the timing of menarche in relation to infant-feeding methods, specifically addressing the potential effects of soy isoflavone exposure through soy-based infant feeding. Subjects were participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Mothers were enrolled during pregnancy and their children have been followed prospectively. Early-life feeding regimes, categorised as primarily breast, early formula, early soy and late soy, were defined using infant-feeding questionnaires administered during infancy. For this analysis, age at menarche was assessed using questionnaires administered approximately annually between ages 8 and 14.5. Eligible subjects were limited to term, singleton, White females. We used Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models to assess age at menarche and risk of menarche over the study period. The present analysis included 2920 girls. Approximately 2% of mothers reported that soy products were introduced into the infant diet at or before 4 months of age (early soy). The median age at menarche [interquartile range (IQR)] in the study sample was 153 months [144-163], approximately 12.8 years. The median age at menarche among early soy-fed girls was 149 months (12.4 years) [IQR, 140-159]. Compared with girls fed non-soy-based infant formula or milk (early formula), early soy-fed girls were at 25% higher risk of menarche throughout the course of follow-up (hazard ratio 1.25 [95% confidence interval 0.92, 1.71]). Our results also suggest that girls fed soy products in early infancy may have an increased risk of menarche specifically in early adolescence. These findings may be the observable manifestation of mild endocrine-disrupting effects of soy isoflavone exposure. However, our study is limited by few soy-exposed subjects and is not designed to assess biological mechanisms. Because soy formula use is common in some populations, this subtle association with menarche warrants more in-depth evaluation in future studies.

Genetic evaluation of a proposed introduction: the case of the greater prairie chicken and the extinct heath hen.

Population introduction is an important tool for ecosystem restoration. However, before introductions should be conducted, it is important to evaluate the genetic, phenotypic and ecological suitability of possible replacement populations. Careful genetic analysis is particularly important if it is suspected that the extirpated population was unique or genetically divergent. On the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, the introduction of greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) to replace the extinct heath hen (T. cupido cupido) is being considered as part of an ecosystem restoration project. Martha's Vineyard was home to the last remaining heath hen population until its extinction in 1932. We conducted this study to aid in determining the suitability of greater prairie chickens as a possible replacement for the heath hen. We examined mitochondrial control region sequences from extant populations of all prairie grouse species (Tympanuchus) and from museum skin heath hen specimens. Our data suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen population represents a divergent mitochondrial lineage. This result is attributable either to a long period of geographical isolation from other prairie grouse populations or to a population bottleneck resulting from human disturbance. The mtDNA diagnosability of the heath hen contrasts with the network of mtDNA haplotypes of other prairie grouse (T. cupido attwateri, T. pallidicinctus and T. phasianellus), which do not form distinguishable mtDNA groupings. Our findings suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen was more genetically isolated than are current populations of prairie grouse and place the emphasis for future research on examining prairie grouse adaptations to different habitat types to assess ecological exchangeability between heath hens and greater prairie chickens.

Evaluation of an epithelial plasticity biomarker panel in men with localized prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Given the potential importance of epithelial plasticity (EP) to cancer metastasis, we sought to investigate biomarkers related to EP in men with localized prostate cancer (PC) for the association with time to PSA recurrence and other clinical outcomes after surgery. METHODS: Men with localized PC treated with radical prostatectomy at the Durham VA Medical Center and whose prostatectomy tissues were included in a tissue microarray (TMA) linked to long-term outcomes. We performed immunohistochemical studies using validated antibodies against E-cadherin and Ki-67 and mesenchymal biomarkers including N-cadherin, vimentin, SNAIL, ZEB1 and TWIST. Association studies were conducted for each biomarker with baseline clinical/pathologic characteristics an risk of PSA recurrence over time. RESULTS: Two hundred and five men contributed TMA tissue and had long-term follow-up (median 11 years). Forty-three percent had PSA recurrence; three died of PC. The majority had high E-cadherin expression (86%); 14% had low/absent E-cadherin expression. N-cadherin was rarely expressed (<4%) and we were unable to identify an E-to-N-cadherin switch as independently prognostic. No associations with clinical risk group, PSA recurrence or Gleason sum were noted for SNAIL, ZEB1, vimentin or TWIST, despite heterogeneous expression between patients. We observed an association of higher Ki-67 expression with Gleason sum (P=0.043), National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk (P=0.013) and PSA recurrence (hazard ratio 1.07, P=0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The expression of EP biomarkers in this cohort of men with a low risk of PC-specific mortality was not associated with aggressive features or PSA relapse after surgery.