Evaluating marker-guided treatment selection strategies

© 2014, The International Biometric Society.A potential venue to improve healthcare efficiency is to effectively tailor individualized treatment strategies by incorporating patient level predictor information such as environmental exposure, biological, and genetic marker measurements. Many useful statistical methods for deriving individualized treatment rules (ITR) have become available in recent years. Prior to adopting any ITR in clinical practice, it is crucial to evaluate its value in improving patient outcomes. Existing methods for quantifying such values mainly consider either a single marker or semi-parametric methods that are subject to bias under model misspecification. In this article, we consider a general setting with multiple markers and propose a two-step robust method to derive ITRs and evaluate their values. We also propose procedures for comparing different ITRs, which can be used to quantify the incremental value of new markers in improving treatment selection. While working models are used in step I to approximate optimal ITRs, we add a layer of calibration to guard against model misspecification and further assess the value of the ITR non-parametrically, which ensures the validity of the inference. To account for the sampling variability of the estimated rules and their corresponding values, we propose a resampling procedure to provide valid confidence intervals for the value functions as well as for the incremental value of new markers for treatment selection. Our proposals are examined through extensive simulation studies and illustrated with the data from a clinical trial that studies the effects of two drug combinations on HIV-1 infected patients.

Intracoronary adenovirus-mediated delivery and overexpression of the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor in the heart : prospects for molecular ventricular assistance.

BACKGROUND: Genetic modulation of ventricular function may offer a novel therapeutic strategy for patients with congestive heart failure. Myocardial overexpression of beta(2)-adrenergic receptors (beta(2)ARs) has been shown to enhance contractility in transgenic mice and reverse signaling abnormalities found in failing cardiomyocytes in culture. In this study, we sought to determine the feasibility and in vivo consequences of delivering an adenovirus containing the human beta(2)AR cDNA to ventricular myocardium via catheter-mediated subselective intracoronary delivery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Rabbits underwent percutaneous subselective catheterization of either the left or right coronary artery and infusion of adenoviral vectors containing either a marker transgene (Adeno-betaGal) or the beta(2)AR (Adeno-beta(2)AR). Ventricular function was assessed before catheterization and 3 to 6 days after gene delivery. Both left circumflex- and right coronary artery-mediated delivery of Adeno-beta(2)AR resulted in approximately 10-fold overexpression in a chamber-specific manner. Delivery of Adeno-betaGal did not alter in vivo left ventricular (LV) systolic function, whereas overexpression of beta(2)ARs in the LV improved global LV contractility, as measured by dP/dt(max), at baseline and in response to isoproterenol at both 3 and 6 days after gene delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Percutaneous adenovirus-mediated intracoronary delivery of a potentially therapeutic transgene is feasible, and acute global LV function can be enhanced by LV-specific overexpression of the beta(2)AR. Thus, genetic modulation to enhance the function of the heart may represent a novel therapeutic strategy for congestive heart failure and can be viewed as molecular ventricular assistance.