Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Plate-specific gain map correction for the improvement of detective quantum efficiency in computed radiography.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this work is to improve the noise power spectrum (NPS), and thus the detective quantum efficiency (DQE), of computed radiography (CR) images by correcting for spatial gain variations specific to individual imaging plates. CR devices have not traditionally employed gain-map corrections, unlike the case with flat-panel detectors, because of the multiplicity of plates used with each reader. The lack of gain-map correction has limited the DQE(f) at higher exposures with CR. This current work describes a feasible solution to generating plate-specific gain maps. METHODS: Ten high-exposure open field images were taken with an RQA5 spectrum, using a sixth generation CR plate suspended in air without a cassette. Image values were converted to exposure, the plates registered using fiducial dots on the plate, the ten images averaged, and then high-pass filtered to remove low frequency contributions from field inhomogeneity. A gain-map was then produced by converting all pixel values in the average into fractions with mean of one. The resultant gain-map of the plate was used to normalize subsequent single images to correct for spatial gain fluctuation. To validate performance, the normalized NPS (NNPS) for all images was calculated both with and without the gain-map correction. Variations in the quality of correction due to exposure levels, beam voltage/spectrum, CR reader used, and registration were investigated. RESULTS: The NNPS with plate-specific gain-map correction showed improvement over the noncorrected case over the range of frequencies from 0.15 to 2.5 mm(-1). At high exposure (40 mR), NNPS was 50%-90% better with gain-map correction than without. A small further improvement in NNPS was seen from carefully registering the gain-map with subsequent images using small fiducial dots, because of slight misregistration during scanning. Further improvement was seen in the NNPS from scaling the gain map about the mean to account for different beam spectra. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that a simple gain-map can be used to correct for the fixed-pattern noise in a given plate and thus improve the DQE of CR imaging. Such a method could easily be implemented by manufacturers because each plate has a unique bar code and the gain-map for all plates associated with a reader could be stored for future retrieval. These experiments indicated that an improvement in NPS (and hence, DQE) is possible, depending on exposure level, over a wide range of frequencies with this technique.

Robust test method for time-course microarray experiments.

BACKGROUND: In a time-course microarray experiment, the expression level for each gene is observed across a number of time-points in order to characterize the temporal trajectories of the gene-expression profiles. For many of these experiments, the scientific aim is the identification of genes for which the trajectories depend on an experimental or phenotypic factor. There is an extensive recent body of literature on statistical methodology for addressing this analytical problem. Most of the existing methods are based on estimating the time-course trajectories using parametric or non-parametric mean regression methods. The sensitivity of these regression methods to outliers, an issue that is well documented in the statistical literature, should be of concern when analyzing microarray data. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a robust testing method for identifying genes whose expression time profiles depend on a factor. Furthermore, we propose a multiple testing procedure to adjust for multiplicity. CONCLUSIONS: Through an extensive simulation study, we will illustrate the performance of our method. Finally, we will report the results from applying our method to a case study and discussing potential extensions.

Elucidation of hepatitis C virus transmission and early diversification by single genome sequencing.

A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures.

BAYESIAN MODEL SEARCH AND MULTILEVEL INFERENCE FOR SNP ASSOCIATION STUDIES.

Technological advances in genotyping have given rise to hypothesis-based association studies of increasing scope. As a result, the scientific hypotheses addressed by these studies have become more complex and more difficult to address using existing analytic methodologies. Obstacles to analysis include inference in the face of multiple comparisons, complications arising from correlations among the SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), choice of their genetic parametrization and missing data. In this paper we present an efficient Bayesian model search strategy that searches over the space of genetic markers and their genetic parametrization. The resulting method for Multilevel Inference of SNP Associations, MISA, allows computation of multilevel posterior probabilities and Bayes factors at the global, gene and SNP level, with the prior distribution on SNP inclusion in the model providing an intrinsic multiplicity correction. We use simulated data sets to characterize MISA's statistical power, and show that MISA has higher power to detect association than standard procedures. Using data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), MISA identifies variants that were not identified by standard methods and have been externally "validated" in independent studies. We examine sensitivity of the NCOCS results to prior choice and method for imputing missing data. MISA is available in an R package on CRAN.