Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

Physics of Hexagonal Limit-Periodic Phases: Thermodynamics, Formation and Vibrational Modes

Limit-periodic (LP) structures exhibit a type of nonperiodic order yet to be found in a natural material. A recent result in tiling theory, however, has shown that LP order can spontaneously emerge in a two-dimensional (2D) lattice model with nearest-and next-nearest-neighbor interactions. In this dissertation, we explore the question of what types of interactions can lead to a LP state and address the issue of whether the formation of a LP structure in experiments is possible. We study emergence of LP order in three-dimensional (3D) tiling models and bring the subject into the physical realm by investigating systems with realistic Hamiltonians and low energy LP states. Finally, we present studies of the vibrational modes of a simple LP ball and spring model whose results indicate that LP materials would exhibit novel physical properties.

A 2D lattice model defined on a triangular lattice with nearest- and next-nearest-neighbor interactions based on the Taylor-Socolar (TS) monotile is known to have a LP ground state. The system reaches that state during a slow quench through an infinite sequence of phase transitions. Surprisingly, even when the strength of the next-nearest-neighbor interactions is zero, in which case there is a large degenerate class of both crystalline and LP ground states, a slow quench yields the LP state. The first study in this dissertation introduces 3D models closely related to the 2D models that exhibit LP phases. The particular 3D models were designed such that next-nearest-neighbor interactions of the TS type are implemented using only nearest-neighbor interactions. For one of the 3D models, we show that the phase transitions are first order, with equilibrium structures that can be more complex than in the 2D case.

In the second study, we investigate systems with physical Hamiltonians based on one of the 2D tiling models with the goal of stimulating attempts to create a LP structure in experiments. We explore physically realizable particle designs while being mindful of particular features that may make the assembly of a LP structure in an experimental system difficult. Through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we have found that one particle design in particular is a promising template for a physical particle; a 2D system of identical disks with embedded dipoles is observed to undergo the series of phase transitions which leads to the LP state.

LP structures are well ordered but nonperiodic, and hence have nontrivial vibrational modes. In the third section of this dissertation, we study a ball and spring model with a LP pattern of spring stiffnesses and identify a set of extended modes with arbitrarily low participation ratios, a situation that appears to be unique to LP systems. The balls that oscillate with large amplitude in these modes live on periodic nets with arbitrarily large lattice constants. By studying periodic approximants to the LP structure, we present numerical evidence for the existence of such modes, and we give a heuristic explanation of their structure.