Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment Modeling Approaches for Transboundary Energy Feedstocks

The rise of the twenty-first century has seen the further increase in the industrialization of Earth’s resources, as society aims to meet the needs of a growing population while still protecting our environmental and natural resources. The advent of the industrial bioeconomy – which encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, and bio-based products – is seen as an important step in transition towards sustainable development and away from fossil fuels. One sector of the industrial bioeconomy which is rapidly being expanded is the use of biobased feedstocks in electricity production as an alternative to coal, especially in the European Union.

As bioeconomy policies and objectives increasingly appear on political agendas, there is a growing need to quantify the impacts of transitioning from fossil fuel-based feedstocks to renewable biological feedstocks. Specifically, there is a growing need to conduct a systems analysis and potential risks of increasing the industrial bioeconomy, given that the flows within it are inextricably linked. Furthermore, greater analysis is needed into the consequences of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable feedstocks, in part through the use of life cycle assessment modeling to analyze impacts along the entire value chain.

To assess the emerging nature of the industrial bioeconomy, three objectives are addressed: (1) quantify the global industrial bioeconomy, linking the use of primary resources with the ultimate end product; (2) quantify the impacts of the expaning wood pellet energy export market of the Southeastern United States; (3) conduct a comparative life cycle assessment, incorporating the use of dynamic life cycle assessment, of replacing coal-fired electricity generation in the United Kingdom with wood pellets that are produced in the Southeastern United States.

To quantify the emergent industrial bioeconomy, an empirical analysis was undertaken. Existing databases from multiple domestic and international agencies was aggregated and analyzed in Microsoft Excel to produce a harmonized dataset of the bioeconomy. First-person interviews, existing academic literature, and industry reports were then utilized to delineate the various intermediate and end use flows within the bioeconomy. The results indicate that within a decade, the industrial use of agriculture has risen ten percent, given increases in the production of bioenergy and bioproducts. The underlying resources supporting the emergent bioeconomy (i.e., land, water, and fertilizer use) were also quantified and included in the database.

Following the quantification of the existing bioeconomy, an in-depth analysis of the bioenergy sector was conducted. Specifically, the focus was on quantifying the impacts of the emergent wood pellet export sector that has rapidly developed in recent years in the Southeastern United States. A cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment was conducted in order to quantify supply chain impacts from two wood pellet production scenarios: roundwood and sawmill residues. For reach of the nine impact categories assessed, wood pellet production from sawmill residues resulted in higher values, ranging from 10-31% higher.

The analysis of the wood pellet sector was then expanded to include the full life cycle (i.e., cradle-to-grave). In doing to, the combustion of biogenic carbon and the subsequent timing of emissions were assessed by incorporating dynamic life cycle assessment modeling. Assuming immediate carbon neutrality of the biomass, the results indicated an 86% reduction in global warming potential when utilizing wood pellets as compared to coal for electricity production in the United Kingdom. When incorporating the timing of emissions, wood pellets equated to a 75% or 96% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, depending upon whether the forestry feedstock was considered to be harvested or planted in year one, respectively.

Finally, a policy analysis of renewable energy in the United States was conducted. Existing coal-fired power plants in the Southeastern United States were assessed in terms of incorporating the co-firing of wood pellets. Co-firing wood pellets with coal in existing Southeastern United States power stations would result in a nine percent reduction in global warming potential.

Assessment of LD matrix measures for the analysis of biological pathway association.

Complex diseases will have multiple functional sites, and it will be invaluable to understand the cross-locus interaction in terms of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between those sites (epistasis) in addition to the haplotype-LD effects. We investigated the statistical properties of a class of matrix-based statistics to assess this epistasis. These statistical methods include two LD contrast tests (Zaykin et al., 2006) and partial least squares regression (Wang et al., 2008). To estimate Type 1 error rates and power, we simulated multiple two-variant disease models using the SIMLA software package. SIMLA allows for the joint action of up to two disease genes in the simulated data with all possible multiplicative interaction effects between them. Our goal was to detect an interaction between multiple disease-causing variants by means of their linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns with other markers. We measured the effects of marginal disease effect size, haplotype LD, disease prevalence and minor allele frequency have on cross-locus interaction (epistasis). In the setting of strong allele effects and strong interaction, the correlation between the two disease genes was weak (r=0.2). In a complex system with multiple correlations (both marginal and interaction), it was difficult to determine the source of a significant result. Despite these complications, the partial least squares and modified LD contrast methods maintained adequate power to detect the epistatic effects; however, for many of the analyses we often could not separate interaction from a strong marginal effect. While we did not exhaust the entire parameter space of possible models, we do provide guidance on the effects that population parameters have on cross-locus interaction.

Computer vision tools for the non-invasive assessment of autism-related behavioral markers

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated that promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests behavioral markers can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involved extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although non-intrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are impractical for clinical and large population research purposes. Diagnostic measures for ASD are available for infants but are only accurate when used by specialists experienced in early diagnosis. This work is a first milestone in a long-term multidisciplinary project that aims at helping clinicians and general practitioners accomplish this early detection/measurement task automatically. We focus on providing computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral markers based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure three critical AOSI activities that assess visual attention. We augment these AOSI activities with an additional test that analyzes asymmetrical patterns in unsupported gait. The first set of algorithms involves assessing head motion by tracking facial features, while the gait analysis relies on joint foreground segmentation and 2D body pose estimation in video. We show results that provide insightful knowledge to augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.

Phylotastic! Making tree-of-life knowledge accessible, reusable and convenient.

BACKGROUND: Scientists rarely reuse expert knowledge of phylogeny, in spite of years of effort to assemble a great "Tree of Life" (ToL). A notable exception involves the use of Phylomatic, which provides tools to generate custom phylogenies from a large, pre-computed, expert phylogeny of plant taxa. This suggests great potential for a more generalized system that, starting with a query consisting of a list of any known species, would rectify non-standard names, identify expert phylogenies containing the implicated taxa, prune away unneeded parts, and supply branch lengths and annotations, resulting in a custom phylogeny suited to the user's needs. Such a system could become a sustainable community resource if implemented as a distributed system of loosely coupled parts that interact through clearly defined interfaces. RESULTS: With the aim of building such a "phylotastic" system, the NESCent Hackathons, Interoperability, Phylogenies (HIP) working group recruited 2 dozen scientist-programmers to a weeklong programming hackathon in June 2012. During the hackathon (and a three-month follow-up period), 5 teams produced designs, implementations, documentation, presentations, and tests including: (1) a generalized scheme for integrating components; (2) proof-of-concept pruners and controllers; (3) a meta-API for taxonomic name resolution services; (4) a system for storing, finding, and retrieving phylogenies using semantic web technologies for data exchange, storage, and querying; (5) an innovative new service, DateLife.org, which synthesizes pre-computed, time-calibrated phylogenies to assign ages to nodes; and (6) demonstration projects. These outcomes are accessible via a public code repository (GitHub.com), a website (http://www.phylotastic.org), and a server image. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 9 person-months of effort (centered on a software development hackathon) resulted in the design and implementation of proof-of-concept software for 4 core phylotastic components, 3 controllers, and 3 end-user demonstration tools. While these products have substantial limitations, they suggest considerable potential for a distributed system that makes phylogenetic knowledge readily accessible in computable form. Widespread use of phylotastic systems will create an electronic marketplace for sharing phylogenetic knowledge that will spur innovation in other areas of the ToL enterprise, such as annotation of sources and methods and third-party methods of quality assessment.

Later Life Consequences of Subteratogenic Exposure to a Complex PAH Mixture in the Atlantic Killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus)

Subteratogenic and other low-level chronic exposures to toxicant mixtures are an understudied threat to environmental and human health. It is especially important to understand the effects of these exposures for contaminants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) a large group of more than 100 individual compounds, which are important environmental (including aquatic) contaminants. Aquatic sediments constitute a major sink for hydrophobic pollutants, and studies show PAHs can persist in sediments over time. Furthermore, estuarine systems (namely breeding grounds) are of particular concern, as they are highly impacted by a wide variety of pollutants, and estuarine fishes are often exposed to some of the highest levels of contaminants of any vertebrate taxon. Acute embryonic exposure to PAHs results in cardiac teratogenesis in fish, and early life exposure to certain individual PAHs and PAH mixtures cause heart alterations with decreased swimming capacity in adult fish. Consequently, the heart and cardiorespiratory system are thought to be targets of PAH mixture exposure. While many studies have investigated acute, teratogenic PAH exposures, few studies have longitudinally examined the impacts of subtle, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposures, which are arguably more broadly applicable to environmental contamination scenarios. The goal of this dissertation was to highlight the later-life consequences of early-life exposure to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex, environmentally relevant PAH mixture.

A unique population of Fundulus heteroclitus (the Atlantic killifish or mummichog, hereafter referred to as killifish), has adapted to creosote-based polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) found at the Atlantic Wood Industries (AW) Superfund site in the southern branch of the Elizabeth River, VA, USA. This killifish population survives in a site heavily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs from former creosote operations. They have developed resistance to the acute toxicity and teratogenic effects caused by the mixture of PAHs in sediment from the site. The primary goal of this dissertation was to compare and contrast later-life outcomes of early-life, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposure in both the Atlantic Wood killifish (AW) and a naïve reference population of killifish from King’s Creek (KC; a relatively uncontaminated tributary of the Severn River, VA). Killifish from both populations were exposed to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex PAH-sediment extract, Elizabeth River Sediment Extract (ERSE), made by collecting sediment from the AW site. Fish were reared over a 5-month period in the laboratory, during which they were examined for a variety of molecular, physiological and behavioral responses.

The central aims of my dissertation were to determine alterations to embryonic gene expression, larval swimming activity, adult behavior, heart structure, enzyme activity, and swimming/cardiorespiratory performance following subteratogenic exposure to ERSE. I hypothesized that subteratogenic exposure to ERSE would impair cardiac ontogenic processes in a way that would be detectable via gene expression in embryos, and that the misregulation of cardiac genes would help to explain activity changes, behavioral deficits, and later-life swimming deficiencies. I also hypothesized that fish heart structure would be altered. In addition, I hypothesized that the AW killifish population would be resistant to developmental exposures and perform normally in later life challenges. To investigate these hypotheses, a series of experiments were carried out in PAH-adapted killifish from Elizabeth River and in reference killifish. As an ancillary project to the primary aims of the dissertation, I examined the toxicity of weaker aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) agonists in combination with fluoranthene (FL), an inhibitor of cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1). This side project was conducted in both Danio rerio (zebrafish) and the KC and AW killifish.

Embryonic gene expression was measured in both killifish populations over an ERSE dose response with multiple time points (12, 24, 48, and 144 hours post exposure). Genes known to play critical roles in cardiac structure/development, cardiac function, and angiogenesis were elevated, indicating cardiac damage and activation of cardiovascular repair mechanisms. These data helped to inform later-life swimming performance and cardiac histology studies. Behavior was assessed during light and dark cycles in larvae of both populations following developmental exposure to ERSE. While KC killifish showed activity differences following exposure, AW killifish showed no significant changes even at concentrations that would cause overt cardiac toxicity in KC killifish. Juvenile behavior experiments demonstrated hyperactivity following ERSE exposure in KC killifish, but no significant behavioral changes in AW killifish. Adult swimming performance via prolonged critical swimming capacity (Ucrit) demonstrated performance costs in the AW killifish. Furthermore, swimming performance decline was observed in KC killifish following exposure to increasing dilutions of ERSE. Lastly, cardiac histology suggested that early-life exposure to ERSE could result in cardiac structural alteration and extravasation of blood into the pericardial cavity.

Responses to AHR agonists resulted in a ranking of relative potency for agonists, and determined which agonists, when combined with FL, caused cardiac teratogenesis. These experiments showed interesting species differences for zebrafish and killifish. To probe mechanisms responsible for cardiotoxicity, a CYP1A-morpholino and a AHR2-morpholino were used to mimic FL effects or attempt to rescue cardiac deformities respectively. Findings suggested that the cardiac toxicity elicited by weak agonist + FL exposure was likely driven by AHR-independent mechanisms. These studies stand in contrast to previous research from our lab showing that moderate AHR agonist + FL caused cardiac toxicity that can be partially rescued by AHR-morpholino knockdown.

My findings will form better characterization of mechanisms of PAH toxicity, and advance our understanding of how subteratogenic mixtures of PAHs exert their toxic action in naïve killifish. Furthermore, these studies will provide a framework for investigating how subteratogenic exposures to PAH mixtures can impact aquatic organismal health and performance. Most importantly, these experiments have the potential to help inform risk assessment in fish, mammals, and potentially humans. Ultimately, this research will help protect populations exposed to subtle PAH-contamination.

A new instrument for measuring anticoagulation-related quality of life: development and preliminary validation.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation can reduce quality of life, and different models of anticoagulation management might have different impacts on satisfaction with this component of medical care. Yet, to our knowledge, there are no scales measuring quality of life and satisfaction with anticoagulation that can be generalized across different models of anticoagulation management. We describe the development and preliminary validation of such an instrument - the Duke Anticoagulation Satisfaction Scale (DASS). METHODS: The DASS is a 25-item scale addressing the (a) negative impacts of anticoagulation (limitations, hassles and burdens); and (b) positive impacts of anticoagulation (confidence, reassurance, satisfaction). Each item has 7 possible responses. The DASS was administered to 262 patients currently receiving oral anticoagulation. Scales measuring generic quality of life, satisfaction with medical care, and tendency to provide socially desirable responses were also administered. Statistical analysis included assessment of item variability, internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha), scale structure (factor analysis), and correlations between the DASS and demographic variables, clinical characteristics, and scores on the above scales. A follow-up study of 105 additional patients assessed test-retest reliability. RESULTS: 220 subjects answered all items. Ceiling and floor effects were modest, and 25 of the 27 proposed items grouped into 2 factors (positive impacts, negative impacts, this latter factor being potentially subdivided into limitations versus hassles and burdens). Each factor had a high degree of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.78-0.91). The limitations and hassles factors consistently correlated with the SF-36 scales measuring generic quality of life, while the positive psychological impact scale correlated with age and time on anticoagulation. The intra-class correlation coefficient for test-retest reliability was 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: The DASS has demonstrated reasonable psychometric properties to date. Further validation is ongoing. To the degree that dissatisfaction with anticoagulation leads to decreased adherence, poorer INR control, and poor clinical outcomes, the DASS has the potential to help identify reasons for dissatisfaction (and positive satisfaction), and thus help to develop interventions to break this cycle. As an instrument designed to be applicable across multiple models of anticoagulation management, the DASS could be crucial in the scientific comparison between those models of care.