Equity trading volume and volatility: Latent information arrivals and common long-run dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate "news"-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.

Are State legislatures responding to public opinion when allocating funds for tobacco control programs?

This study explored the factors associated with state-level allocations to tobacco-control programs. The primary research question was whether public sentiment regarding tobacco control was a significant factor in the states' 2001 budget decisions. In addition to public opinion, several additional political and economic measures were considered. Significant associations were found between our outcome, state-level tobacco-control funding per capita, and key variables of interest including public opinion, amount of tobacco settlement received, the party affiliation of the governor, the state's smoking rate, excise tax revenue received, and whether the state was a major producer of tobacco. The findings from this study supported our hypothesis that states with citizens who favor more restrictive indoor air policies allocate more to tobacco control. Effective public education to change public opinion and the cultural norms surrounding smoking may affect political decisions and, in turn, increase funding for crucial public health programs.

Latent Stick-Breaking Processes.

We develop a model for stochastic processes with random marginal distributions. Our model relies on a stick-breaking construction for the marginal distribution of the process, and introduces dependence across locations by using a latent Gaussian copula model as the mechanism for selecting the atoms. The resulting latent stick-breaking process (LaSBP) induces a random partition of the index space, with points closer in space having a higher probability of being in the same cluster. We develop an efficient and straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for computation and discuss applications in financial econometrics and ecology. This article has supplementary material online.

Latent factor analysis to discover pathway-associated putative segmental aneuploidies in human cancers.

Tumor microenvironmental stresses, such as hypoxia and lactic acidosis, play important roles in tumor progression. Although gene signatures reflecting the influence of these stresses are powerful approaches to link expression with phenotypes, they do not fully reflect the complexity of human cancers. Here, we describe the use of latent factor models to further dissect the stress gene signatures in a breast cancer expression dataset. The genes in these latent factors are coordinately expressed in tumors and depict distinct, interacting components of the biological processes. The genes in several latent factors are highly enriched in chromosomal locations. When these factors are analyzed in independent datasets with gene expression and array CGH data, the expression values of these factors are highly correlated with copy number alterations (CNAs) of the corresponding BAC clones in both the cell lines and tumors. Therefore, variation in the expression of these pathway-associated factors is at least partially caused by variation in gene dosage and CNAs among breast cancers. We have also found the expression of two latent factors without any chromosomal enrichment is highly associated with 12q CNA, likely an instance of "trans"-variations in which CNA leads to the variations in gene expression outside of the CNA region. In addition, we have found that factor 26 (1q CNA) is negatively correlated with HIF-1alpha protein and hypoxia pathways in breast tumors and cell lines. This agrees with, and for the first time links, known good prognosis associated with both a low hypoxia signature and the presence of CNA in this region. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility that tumor segmental aneuploidy makes significant contributions to variation in the lactic acidosis/hypoxia gene signatures in human cancers and demonstrate that latent factor analysis is a powerful means to uncover such a linkage.

Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Cross-Domain Multitask Learning with Latent Probit Models

Learning multiple tasks across heterogeneous domains is a challenging problem since the feature space may not be the same for different tasks. We assume the data in multiple tasks are generated from a latent common domain via sparse domain transforms and propose a latent probit model (LPM) to jointly learn the domain transforms, and the shared probit classifier in the common domain. To learn meaningful task relatedness and avoid over-fitting in classification, we introduce sparsity in the domain transforms matrices, as well as in the common classifier. We derive theoretical bounds for the estimation error of the classifier in terms of the sparsity of domain transforms. An expectation-maximization algorithm is derived for learning the LPM. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on several real datasets.

New Advancements of Scalable Statistical Methods for Learning Latent Structures in Big Data

Constant technology advances have caused data explosion in recent years. Accord- ingly modern statistical and machine learning methods must be adapted to deal with complex and heterogeneous data types. This phenomenon is particularly true for an- alyzing biological data. For example DNA sequence data can be viewed as categorical variables with each nucleotide taking four different categories. The gene expression data, depending on the quantitative technology, could be continuous numbers or counts. With the advancement of high-throughput technology, the abundance of such data becomes unprecedentedly rich. Therefore efficient statistical approaches are crucial in this big data era.

Previous statistical methods for big data often aim to find low dimensional struc- tures in the observed data. For example in a factor analysis model a latent Gaussian distributed multivariate vector is assumed. With this assumption a factor model produces a low rank estimation of the covariance of the observed variables. Another example is the latent Dirichlet allocation model for documents. The mixture pro- portions of topics, represented by a Dirichlet distributed variable, is assumed. This dissertation proposes several novel extensions to the previous statistical methods that are developed to address challenges in big data. Those novel methods are applied in multiple real world applications including construction of condition specific gene co-expression networks, estimating shared topics among newsgroups, analysis of pro- moter sequences, analysis of political-economics risk data and estimating population structure from genotype data.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Design of Latent Thermal Energy Storage Systems

This dissertation documents the results of a theoretical and numerical study of time dependent storage of energy by melting a phase change material. The heating is provided along invading lines, which change from single-line invasion to tree-shaped invasion. Chapter 2 identifies the special design feature of distributing energy storage in time-dependent fashion on a territory, when the energy flows by fluid flow from a concentrated source to points (users) distributed equidistantly on the area. The challenge in this chapter is to determine the architecture of distributed energy storage. The chief conclusion is that the finite amount of storage material should be distributed proportionally with the distribution of the flow rate of heating agent arriving on the area. The total time needed by the source stream to ‘invade’ the area is cumulative (the sum of the storage times required at each storage site), and depends on the energy distribution paths and the sequence in which the users are served by the source stream. Chapter 3 shows theoretically that the melting process consists of two phases: “invasion” thermal diffusion along the invading line, which is followed by “consolidation” as heat diffuses perpendicularly to the invading line. This chapter also reports the duration of both phases and the evolution of the melt layer around the invading line during the two-dimensional and three-dimensional invasion. It also shows that the amount of melted material increases in time according to a curve shaped as an S. These theoretical predictions are validated by means of numerical simulations in chapter 4. This chapter also shows that the heat transfer rate density increases (i.e., the S curve becomes steeper) as the complexity and number of degrees of freedom of the structure are increased, in accord with the constructal law. The optimal geometric features of the tree structure are detailed in this chapter. Chapter 5 documents a numerical study of time-dependent melting where the heat transfer is convection dominated, unlike in chapter 3 and 4 where the melting is ruled by pure conduction. In accord with constructal design, the search is for effective heat-flow architectures. The volume-constrained improvement of the designs for heat flow begins with assuming the simplest structure, where a single line serves as heat source. Next, the heat source is endowed with freedom to change its shape as it grows. The objective of the numerical simulations is to discover the geometric features that lead to the fastest melting process. The results show that the heat transfer rate density increases as the complexity and number of degrees of freedom of the structure are increased. Furthermore, the angles between heat invasion lines have a minor effect on the global performance compared to other degrees of freedom: number of branching levels, stem length, and branch lengths. The effect of natural convection in the melt zone is documented.

Bayesian Learning with Dependency Structures via Latent Factors, Mixtures, and Copulas

Bayesian methods offer a flexible and convenient probabilistic learning framework to extract interpretable knowledge from complex and structured data. Such methods can characterize dependencies among multiple levels of hidden variables and share statistical strength across heterogeneous sources. In the first part of this dissertation, we develop two dependent variational inference methods for full posterior approximation in non-conjugate Bayesian models through hierarchical mixture- and copula-based variational proposals, respectively. The proposed methods move beyond the widely used factorized approximation to the posterior and provide generic applicability to a broad class of probabilistic models with minimal model-specific derivations. In the second part of this dissertation, we design probabilistic graphical models to accommodate multimodal data, describe dynamical behaviors and account for task heterogeneity. In particular, the sparse latent factor model is able to reveal common low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed statistical learning methods on both synthetic and real-world data.