Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Child work and labour among orphaned and abandoned children in five low and middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: The care and protection of the estimated 143,000,000 orphaned and abandoned children (OAC) worldwide is of great importance to global policy makers and child service providers in low and middle income countries (LMICs), yet little is known about rates of child labour among OAC, what child and caregiver characteristics predict child engagement in work and labour, or when such work infers with schooling. This study examines rates and correlates of child labour among OAC and associations of child labour with schooling in a cohort of OAC in 5 LMICs. METHODS: The Positive Outcomes for Orphans (POFO) study employed a two-stage random sampling survey methodology to identify 1480 single and double orphans and children abandoned by both parents ages 6-12 living in family settings in five LMICs: Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Tanzania. Regression models examined child and caregiver associations with: any work versus no work; and with working <21, 21-27, and 28+ hours during the past week, and child labour (UNICEF definition). RESULTS: The majority of OAC (60.7%) engaged in work during the past week, and of those who worked, 17.8% (10.5% of the total sample) worked 28 or more hours. More than one-fifth (21.9%; 13% of the total sample) met UNICEF's child labour definition. Female OAC and those in good health had increased odds of working. OAC living in rural areas, lower household wealth and caregivers not earning an income were associated with increased child labour. Child labour, but not working fewer than 28 hours per week, was associated with decreased school attendance. CONCLUSIONS: One in seven OAC in this study were reported to be engaged in child labour. Policy makers and social service providers need to pay close attention to the demands being placed on female OAC, particularly in rural areas and poor households with limited income sources. Programs to promote OAC school attendance may need to focus on the needs of families as well as the OAC.

Effect of ritonavir-induced cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibition on plasma fentanyl concentrations during patient-controlled epidural labor analgesia: a pharmacokinetic simulation.

BACKGROUND: Ritonavir inhibition of cytochrome P450 3A4 decreases the elimination clearance of fentanyl by 67%. We used a pharmacokinetic model developed from published data to simulate the effect of sample patient-controlled epidural labor analgesic regimens on plasma fentanyl concentrations in the absence and presence of ritonavir-induced cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibition. METHODS: Fentanyl absorption from the epidural space was modeled using tanks-in-series delay elements. Systemic fentanyl disposition was described using a three-compartment pharmacokinetic model. Parameters for epidural drug absorption were estimated by fitting the model to reported plasma fentanyl concentrations measured after epidural administration. The validity of the model was assessed by comparing predicted plasma concentrations after epidural administration to published data. The effect of ritonavir was modeled as a 67% decrease in fentanyl elimination clearance. Plasma fentanyl concentrations were simulated for six sample patient-controlled epidural labor analgesic regimens over 24 h using ritonavir and control models. Simulated data were analyzed to determine if plasma fentanyl concentrations producing a 50% decrease in minute ventilation (6.1 ng/mL) were achieved. RESULTS: Simulated plasma fentanyl concentrations in the ritonavir group were higher than those in the control group for all sample labor analgesic regimens. Maximum plasma fentanyl concentrations were 1.8 ng/mL and 3.4 ng/mL for the normal and ritonavir simulations, respectively, and did not reach concentrations associated with 50% decrease in minute ventilation. CONCLUSION: Our model predicts that even with maximal clinical dosing regimens of epidural fentanyl over 24 h, ritonavir-induced cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibition is unlikely to produce plasma fentanyl concentrations associated with a decrease in minute ventilation.

Division of labor in frontal eye field neurons during presaccadic remapping of visual receptive fields.

Our percept of visual stability across saccadic eye movements may be mediated by presaccadic remapping. Just before a saccade, neurons that remap become visually responsive at a future field (FF), which anticipates the saccade vector. Hence, the neurons use corollary discharge of saccades. Many of the neurons also decrease their response at the receptive field (RF). Presaccadic remapping occurs in several brain areas including the frontal eye field (FEF), which receives corollary discharge of saccades in its layer IV from a collicular-thalamic pathway. We studied, at two levels, the microcircuitry of remapping in the FEF. At the laminar level, we compared remapping between layers IV and V. At the cellular level, we compared remapping between different neuron types of layer IV. In the FEF in four monkeys (Macaca mulatta), we identified 27 layer IV neurons with orthodromic stimulation and 57 layer V neurons with antidromic stimulation from the superior colliculus. With the use of established criteria, we classified the layer IV neurons as putative excitatory (n = 11), putative inhibitory (n = 12), or ambiguous (n = 4). We found that just before a saccade, putative excitatory neurons increased their visual response at the RF, putative inhibitory neurons showed no change, and ambiguous neurons increased their visual response at the FF. None of the neurons showed presaccadic visual changes at both RF and FF. In contrast, neurons in layer V showed full remapping (at both the RF and FF). Our data suggest that elemental signals for remapping are distributed across neuron types in early cortical processing and combined in later stages of cortical microcircuitry.

Teaching neuraxial anesthesia techniques for obstetric care in a Ghanaian referral hospital: achievements and obstacles.

Anesthesia providers in low-income countries may infrequently provide regional anesthesia techniques for obstetrics due to insufficient training and supplies, limited manpower, and a lack of perceived need. In 2007, Kybele, Inc. began a 5-year collaboration in Ghana to improve obstetric anesthesia services. A program was designed to teach spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery and spinal labor analgesia at Ridge Regional Hospital, Accra, the second largest obstetric unit in Ghana. The use of spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery increased significantly from 6% in 2006 to 89% in 2009. By 2012, >90% of cesarean deliveries were conducted with spinal anesthesia, despite a doubling of the number performed. A trial of spinal labor analgesia was assessed in a small cohort of parturients with minimal complications; however, protocol deviations were observed. Although subsequent efforts to provide spinal analgesia in the labor ward were hampered by anesthesia provider shortages, spinal anesthesia for cesarean delivery proved to be practical and sustainable.

Improving mental health among people living with HIV: a review of intervention trials in low- and middle-income countries.

People living with HIV (PLWH) experience greater psychological distress than the general population. Evidence from high-incomes countries suggests that psychological interventions for PLWH can improve mental health symptoms, quality of life, and HIV care engagement. However, little is known about the effectiveness of mental health interventions for PLWH in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the large majority of PLWH reside. This systematized review aims to synthesize findings from mental health intervention trials with PLWH in LMICs to inform the delivery of mental health services in these settings. A systematic search strategy was undertaken to identify peer-reviewed published papers of intervention trials addressing negative psychological states or disorders (e.g., depression, anxiety) among PLWH in LMIC settings. Search results were assessed against pre-established inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data from papers meeting criteria were extracted for synthesis. Twenty-six papers, published between 2000 and 2014, describing 22 unique interventions were identified. Trials were implemented in sub-Saharan Africa (n=13), Asia (n=7), and the Middle East (n=2), and addressed mental health using a variety of approaches, including cognitive-behavioral (n=18), family-level (n=2), and pharmacological (n=2) treatments. Four randomized controlled trials reported significant intervention effects in mental health outcomes, and eleven preliminary studies demonstrated promising findings. Among the limited mental health intervention trials with PLWH in LMICs, few demonstrated efficacy. Mental health interventions for PLWH in LMICs must be further developed and adapted for resource-limited settings to improve effectiveness.

Road Traffic Injury Prevention Initiatives: A Systematic Review and Metasummary of Effectiveness in Low and Middle Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a growing but neglected global health crisis, requiring effective prevention to promote sustainable safety. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) share a disproportionately high burden with 90% of the world's road traffic deaths, and where RTIs are escalating due to rapid urbanization and motorization. Although several studies have assessed the effectiveness of a specific intervention, no systematic reviews have been conducted summarizing the effectiveness of RTI prevention initiatives specifically performed in LMIC settings; this study will help fill this gap. METHODS: In accordance with PRISMA guidelines we searched the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, TRID, Lilacs, Scielo and Global Health. Articles were eligible if they considered RTI prevention in LMICs by evaluating a prevention-related intervention with outcome measures of crash, RTI, or death. In addition, a reference and citation analysis was conducted as well as a data quality assessment. A qualitative metasummary approach was used for data analysis and effect sizes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of emerging themes. RESULTS: Of the 8560 articles from the literature search, 18 articles from 11 LMICs fit the eligibility and inclusion criteria. Of these studies, four were from Sub-Saharan Africa, ten from Latin America and the Caribbean, one from the Middle East, and three from Asia. Half of the studies focused specifically on legislation, while the others focused on speed control measures, educational interventions, enforcement, road improvement, community programs, or a multifaceted intervention. CONCLUSION: Legislation was the most common intervention evaluated with the best outcomes when combined with strong enforcement initiatives or as part of a multifaceted approach. Because speed control is crucial to crash and injury prevention, road improvement interventions in LMIC settings should carefully consider how the impact of improvements will affect speed and traffic flow. Further road traffic injury prevention interventions should be performed in LMICs with patient-centered outcomes in order to guide injury prevention in these complex settings.