Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Computer vision tools for the non-invasive assessment of autism-related behavioral markers

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated that promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests behavioral markers can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involved extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although non-intrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are impractical for clinical and large population research purposes. Diagnostic measures for ASD are available for infants but are only accurate when used by specialists experienced in early diagnosis. This work is a first milestone in a long-term multidisciplinary project that aims at helping clinicians and general practitioners accomplish this early detection/measurement task automatically. We focus on providing computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral markers based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure three critical AOSI activities that assess visual attention. We augment these AOSI activities with an additional test that analyzes asymmetrical patterns in unsupported gait. The first set of algorithms involves assessing head motion by tracking facial features, while the gait analysis relies on joint foreground segmentation and 2D body pose estimation in video. We show results that provide insightful knowledge to augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.

Dissecting the Functional Impacts of Non-Coding Genetic Variation

A large proportion of the variation in traits between individuals can be attributed to variation in the nucleotide sequence of the genome. The most commonly studied traits in human genetics are related to disease and disease susceptibility. Although scientists have identified genetic causes for over 4,000 monogenic diseases, the underlying mechanisms of many highly prevalent multifactorial inheritance disorders such as diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease remain largely unknown. Identifying genetic mechanisms for complex traits has been challenging because most of the variants are located outside of protein-coding regions, and determining the effects of such non-coding variants remains difficult. In this dissertation, I evaluate the hypothesis that such non-coding variants contribute to human traits and diseases by altering the regulation of genes rather than the sequence of those genes. I will specifically focus on studies to determine the functional impacts of genetic variation associated with two related complex traits: gestational hyperglycemia and fetal adiposity. At the genomic locus associated with maternal hyperglycemia, we found that genetic variation in regulatory elements altered the expression of the HKDC1 gene. Furthermore, we demonstrated that HKDC1 phosphorylates glucose in vitro and in vivo, thus demonstrating that HKDC1 is a fifth human hexokinase gene. At the fetal-adiposity associated locus, we identified variants that likely alter VEPH1 expression in preadipocytes during differentiation. To make such studies of regulatory variation high-throughput and routine, we developed POP-STARR, a novel high throughput reporter assay that can empirically measure the effects of regulatory variants directly from patient DNA. By combining targeted genome capture technologies with STARR-seq, we assayed thousands of haplotypes from 760 individuals in a single experiment. We subsequently used POP-STARR to identify three key features of regulatory variants: that regulatory variants typically have weak effects on gene expression; that the effects of regulatory variants are often coordinated with respect to disease-risk, suggesting a general mechanism by which the weak effects can together have phenotypic impact; and that nucleotide transversions have larger impacts on enhancer activity than transitions. Together, the findings presented here demonstrate successful strategies for determining the regulatory mechanisms underlying genetic associations with human traits and diseases, and value of doing so for driving novel biological discovery.