2 resultados para Kenneth Schlesinger
em Duke University
Resumo:
Nations around the world are considering strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change predicted to occur in the twenty-first century. Many countries, however, lack the wealth, technology, and government institutions to effectively cope with climate change. This study investigates the varying degrees to which developing and developed nations will be exposed to changes in three key variables: temperature, precipitation, and runoff. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis to compare current and future climate model predictions on a country level. We then compare our calculations of climate change exposure for each nation to several metrics of political and economic well-being. Our results indicate that the impacts of changes in precipitation and runoff are distributed relatively equally between developed and developing nations. In contrast, we confirm research suggesting that developing nations will be affected far more severely by changes in temperature than developed nations. Our results also suggest that this unequal impact will persist throughout the twenty-first century. Our analysis further indicates that the most significant temperature changes will occur in politically unstable countries, creating an additional motivation for developed countries to actively engage with developing nations on climate mitigation strategies. © 2011, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
Resumo:
We examined the association between geographic distribution, ecological traits, life history, genetic diversity, and risk of extinction in nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica. All of the current nonhuman primate species from Costa Rica are included in the study; spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi), howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata), capuchins (Cebus capucinus), and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri oerstedii). Geographic distribution was characterized accessing existing databases. Data on ecology and life history traits were obtained through a literature review. Genetic diversity was characterized using isozyme electrophoresis. Risk of extinction was assessed from the literature. We found that species differed in all these traits. Using these data, we conducted a Pearson correlation between risk of extinction and ecological and life history traits, and genetic variation, for widely distributed species. We found a negative association between risk of extinction and population birth and growth rates; indicating that slower reproducing species had a greater risk of extinction. We found a positive association between genetic variation and risk of extinction; i.e., species showing higher genetic variation had a greater risk of extinction. The relevance of these traits for conservation efforts is discussed.