Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Reason, risk, and reward: Models for libraries and other stakeholders in an evolving scholarly publishing ecosystem

Scholarly publishing, and scholarly communication more generally, are based on patterns established over many decades and even centuries. Some of these patterns are clearly valuable and intimately related to core values of the academy, but others were based on the exigencies of the past, and new opportunities have brought into question whether it makes sense to persist in supporting old models. New technologies and new publishing models raise the question of how we should fund and operate scholarly publishing and scholarly communication in the future, moving away from a scarcity model based on the exchange of physical goods that restricts access to scholarly literature unless a market-based exchange takes place. This essay describes emerging models that attempt to shift scholarly communication to a more open-access and mission-based approach and that try to retain control of scholarship by academics and the institutions and scholarly societies that support them. It explores changing practices for funding scholarly journals and changing services provided by academic libraries, changes instituted with the end goal of providing more access to more readers, stimulating new scholarship, and removing inefficiencies from a system ready for change. © 2014 by the American Anthropological Association.

Behavioral Perspectives on Organizational Change: Practice Adoption, Product Culling, and Technological Search

This dissertation explores the complex process of organizational change, applying a behavioral lens to understand change in processes, products, and search behaviors. Chapter 1 examines new practice adoption, exploring factors that predict the extent to which routines are adopted “as designed” within the organization. Using medical record data obtained from the hospital’s Electronic Health Record (EHR) system I develop a novel measure of the “gap” between routine “as designed” and routine “as realized.” I link this to a survey administered to the hospital’s professional staff following the adoption of a new EHR system and find that beliefs about the expected impact of the change shape fidelity of the adopted practice to its design. This relationship is more pronounced in care units with experienced professionals and less pronounced when the care unit includes departmental leadership. This research offers new insights into the determinants of routine change in organizations, in particular suggesting the beliefs held by rank-and-file members of an organization are critical in new routine adoption. Chapter 2 explores changes to products, specifically examining culling behaviors in the mobile device industry. Using a panel of quarterly mobile device sales in Germany from 2004-2009, this chapter suggests that the organization’s response to performance feedback is conditional upon the degree to which decisions are centralized. While much of the research on product exit has pointed to economic drivers or prior experience, these central finding of this chapter—that performance below aspirations decreases the rate of phase-out—suggests that firms seek local solutions when doing poorly, which is consistent with behavioral explanations of organizational action. Chapter 3 uses a novel text analysis approach to examine how the allocation of attention within organizational subunits shapes adaptation in the form of search behaviors in Motorola from 1974-1997. It develops a theory that links organizational attention to search, and the results suggest a trade-off between both attentional specialization and coupling on search scope and depth. Specifically, specialized unit attention to a more narrow set of problems increases search scope but reduces search depth; increased attentional coupling also increases search scope at the cost of depth. This novel approach and these findings help clarify extant research on the behavioral outcomes of attention allocation, which have offered mixed results.

Prevalence, Incidence and Progression of Myopia in Singaporean Adolescents

The Singapore Cohort Study of the Risk Factors for myopia (SCORM) is a longitudinal school-based study that recruited 1979 children, aged 7 to 9 years old between 1999 and 2001, who were re-examined as adolescents in 2006 and 2007. This current study is to determine the prevalence, incidence and progression of myopia among Singapore teenagers and describe any trend in the SCORM study.

At each visit, participants underwent comprehensive eye examinations that included cycloplegic autorefraction and ocular biometry measurements. The prevalence of myopia (SE<-0.5D) and high myopia (SE<-6.0D) among Singapore teenagers aged 11-18 years old was 69.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 66.5-71.7] and 7.1% (95% CI 5.8-8.7), respectively, with the highest prevalence in people of Chinese ethnicity (p<0.001). The annual incidence was 13.7% (95% CI 9.8-17.6). Males had twice the incidence of females (p=0.043), and adolescents with longer axial lengths (p<0.001) and deeper vitreous chamber (p<0.001) had higher myopia incidence. Annual myopia progression was -0.32 Diopters (D) (SD=0.40), with no difference by age, race or gender. However, adolescents with higher myopia levels at 2006 had significantly faster myopia progression rates (p<0.001).

Myopia prevalence in Singapore teenagers, especially Singapore Chinese teenagers, is one of the highest in the world. In adolescents, there is still a high rate of new onset and rapid progression of myopia. These findings indicate that adolescence may still represent a viable period for intervention programs to mitigate myopia onset and progression.

The impact of late career job loss on myocardial infarction and stroke: a 10 year follow up using the health and retirement survey.

BACKGROUND: Involuntary job loss is a major life event associated with social, economic, behavioural, and health outcomes, for which older workers are at elevated risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the 10 year risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke associated with involuntary job loss among workers over 50 years of age. METHODS: Analysing data from the nationally representative US Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate whether workers who suffered involuntary job loss were at higher risk for subsequent MI and stroke than individuals who continued to work. The sample included 4301 individuals who were employed at the 1992 study baseline. RESULTS: Over the 10 year study frame, 582 individuals (13.5% of the sample) experienced involuntary job loss. After controlling for established predictors of the outcomes, displaced workers had a more than twofold increase in the risk of subsequent MI (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.49 to 4.14) and stroke (HR = 2.43; 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.98) relative to working persons. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the true costs of late career unemployment exceed financial deprivation, and include substantial health consequences. Physicians who treat individuals who lose jobs as they near retirement should consider the loss of employment a potential risk factor for adverse vascular health changes. Policy makers and programme planners should also be aware of the risks of job loss, so that programmatic interventions can be designed and implemented to ease the multiple burdens of joblessness.

Neutralizing BAFF/APRIL with atacicept prevents early DSA formation and AMR development in T cell depletion induced nonhuman primate AMR model.

Depletional strategies directed toward achieving tolerance induction in organ transplantation have been associated with an increased incidence and risk of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) and graft injury. Our clinical data suggest correlation of increased serum B cell activating factor/survival factor (BAFF) with increased risk of antibody-mediated rejection in alemtuzumab treated patients. In the present study, we tested the ability of BAFF blockade (TACI-Ig) in a nonhuman primate AMR model to prevent alloantibody production and prolong allograft survival. Three animals received the AMR inducing regimen (CD3-IT/alefacept/tacrolimus) with TACI-Ig (atacicept), compared to five control animals treated with the AMR inducing regimen only. TACI-Ig treatment lead to decreased levels of DSA in treated animals at 2 and 4 weeks posttransplantation (p < 0.05). In addition, peripheral B cell numbers were significantly lower at 6 weeks posttransplantation. However, it provided only a marginal increase in graft survival (59 ± 22 vs. 102 ± 47 days; p = 0.11). Histological analysis revealed a substantial reduction in findings typically associated with humoral rejection with atacicept treatment. More T cell rejection findings were observed with increased graft T cell infiltration in atacicept treatment, likely secondary to the graft prolongation. We show that BAFF/APRIL blockade using concomitant TACI-Ig treatment reduced the humoral portion of rejection in our depletion-induced preclinical AMR model.