Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Evaluating intra-articular drug delivery for the treatment of osteoarthritis in a rat model.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative joint disease that can result in joint pain, loss of joint function, and deleterious effects on activity levels and lifestyle habits. Current therapies for OA are largely aimed at symptomatic relief and may have limited effects on the underlying cascade of joint degradation. Local drug delivery strategies may provide for the development of more successful OA treatment outcomes that have potential to reduce local joint inflammation, reduce joint destruction, offer pain relief, and restore patient activity levels and joint function. As increasing interest turns toward intra-articular drug delivery routes, parallel interest has emerged in evaluating drug biodistribution, safety, and efficacy in preclinical models. Rodent models provide major advantages for the development of drug delivery strategies, chiefly because of lower cost, successful replication of human OA-like characteristics, rapid disease development, and small joint volumes that enable use of lower total drug amounts during protocol development. These models, however, also offer the potential to investigate the therapeutic effects of local drug therapy on animal behavior, including pain sensitivity thresholds and locomotion characteristics. Herein, we describe a translational paradigm for the evaluation of an intra-articular drug delivery strategy in a rat OA model. This model, a rat interleukin-1beta overexpression model, offers the ability to evaluate anti-interleukin-1 therapeutics for drug biodistribution, activity, and safety as well as the therapeutic relief of disease symptoms. Once the action against interleukin-1 is confirmed in vivo, the newly developed anti-inflammatory drug can be evaluated for evidence of disease-modifying effects in more complex preclinical models.

Performance metrics of an optical spectral imaging system for intra-operative assessment of breast tumor margins.

As many as 20-70% of patients undergoing breast conserving surgery require repeat surgeries due to a close or positive surgical margin diagnosed post-operatively [1]. Currently there are no widely accepted tools for intra-operative margin assessment which is a significant unmet clinical need. Our group has developed a first-generation optical visible spectral imaging platform to image the molecular composition of breast tumor margins and has tested it clinically in 48 patients in a previously published study [2]. The goal of this paper is to report on the performance metrics of the system and compare it to clinical criteria for intra-operative tumor margin assessment. The system was found to have an average signal to noise ratio (SNR) >100 and <15% error in the extraction of optical properties indicating that there is sufficient SNR to leverage the differences in optical properties between negative and close/positive margins. The probe had a sensing depth of 0.5-2.2 mm over the wavelength range of 450-600 nm which is consistent with the pathologic criterion for clear margins of 0-2 mm. There was <1% cross-talk between adjacent channels of the multi-channel probe which shows that multiple sites can be measured simultaneously with negligible cross-talk between adjacent sites. Lastly, the system and measurement procedure were found to be reproducible when evaluated with repeated measures, with a low coefficient of variation (<0.11). The only aspect of the system not optimized for intra-operative use was the imaging time. The manuscript includes a discussion of how the speed of the system can be improved to work within the time constraints of an intra-operative setting.

An integrated approach to the prediction of chemotherapeutic response in patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A major challenge in oncology is the selection of the most effective chemotherapeutic agents for individual patients, while the administration of ineffective chemotherapy increases mortality and decreases quality of life in cancer patients. This emphasizes the need to evaluate every patient's probability of responding to each chemotherapeutic agent and limiting the agents used to those most likely to be effective. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using gene expression data on the NCI-60 and corresponding drug sensitivity, mRNA and microRNA profiles were developed representing sensitivity to individual chemotherapeutic agents. The mRNA signatures were tested in an independent cohort of 133 breast cancer patients treated with the TFAC (paclitaxel, 5-fluorouracil, adriamycin, and cyclophosphamide) chemotherapy regimen. To further dissect the biology of resistance, we applied signatures of oncogenic pathway activation and performed hierarchical clustering. We then used mRNA signatures of chemotherapy sensitivity to identify alternative therapeutics for patients resistant to TFAC. Profiles from mRNA and microRNA expression data represent distinct biologic mechanisms of resistance to common cytotoxic agents. The individual mRNA signatures were validated in an independent dataset of breast tumors (P = 0.002, NPV = 82%). When the accuracy of the signatures was analyzed based on molecular variables, the predictive ability was found to be greater in basal-like than non basal-like patients (P = 0.03 and P = 0.06). Samples from patients with co-activated Myc and E2F represented the cohort with the lowest percentage (8%) of responders. Using mRNA signatures of sensitivity to other cytotoxic agents, we predict that TFAC non-responders are more likely to be sensitive to docetaxel (P = 0.04), representing a viable alternative therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the optimal strategy for chemotherapy sensitivity prediction integrates molecular variables such as ER and HER2 status with corresponding microRNA and mRNA expression profiles. Importantly, we also present evidence to support the concept that analysis of molecular variables can present a rational strategy to identifying alternative therapeutic opportunities.

Progress in intra-articular therapy.

Diarthrodial joints are well suited to intra-articular injection, and the local delivery of therapeutics in this fashion brings several potential advantages to the treatment of a wide range of arthropathies. Possible benefits over systemic delivery include increased bioavailability, reduced systemic exposure, fewer adverse events, and lower total drug costs. Nevertheless, intra-articular therapy is challenging because of the rapid egress of injected materials from the joint space; this elimination is true of both small molecules, which exit via synovial capillaries, and of macromolecules, which are cleared by the lymphatic system. In general, soluble materials have an intra-articular dwell time measured only in hours. Corticosteroids and hyaluronate preparations constitute the mainstay of FDA-approved intra-articular therapeutics. Recombinant proteins, autologous blood products and analgesics have also found clinical use via intra-articular delivery. Several alternative approaches, such as local delivery of cell and gene therapy, as well as the use of microparticles, liposomes, and modified drugs, are in various stages of preclinical development.