Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Rain dances in the dry season: overcoming the religious congruence fallacy

Religious congruence refers to consistency among an individual’s religious beliefs and attitudes, consistency between religious ideas and behavior, and religious ideas, identities, or schemas that are chronically salient and accessible to individuals across contexts and situations. Decades of anthropological, sociological, and psychological research establish that religious congruence is rare, but much thinking about religion presumes that it is common. The religious congruence fallacy occurs when interpretations or explanations unjustifiably presume religious congruence. I illustrate the ubiquity of religious incongruence, show how the religious congruence fallacy distorts thinking about religion, and outline an approach to help overcome the fallacy.

Computational Methods for RNA Structure Validation and Improvement.

With increasing recognition of the roles RNA molecules and RNA/protein complexes play in an unexpected variety of biological processes, understanding of RNA structure-function relationships is of high current importance. To make clean biological interpretations from three-dimensional structures, it is imperative to have high-quality, accurate RNA crystal structures available, and the community has thoroughly embraced that goal. However, due to the many degrees of freedom inherent in RNA structure (especially for the backbone), it is a significant challenge to succeed in building accurate experimental models for RNA structures. This chapter describes the tools and techniques our research group and our collaborators have developed over the years to help RNA structural biologists both evaluate and achieve better accuracy. Expert analysis of large, high-resolution, quality-conscious RNA datasets provides the fundamental information that enables automated methods for robust and efficient error diagnosis in validating RNA structures at all resolutions. The even more crucial goal of correcting the diagnosed outliers has steadily developed toward highly effective, computationally based techniques. Automation enables solving complex issues in large RNA structures, but cannot circumvent the need for thoughtful examination of local details, and so we also provide some guidance for interpreting and acting on the results of current structure validation for RNA.

Response to Comment on "Whole-genome analyses resolve early branches in the tree of life of modern birds".

Mitchell et al. argue that divergence-time estimates for our avian phylogeny were too young because of an "inappropriate" maximum age constraint for the most recent common ancestor of modern birds and that, as a result, most modern bird orders diverged before the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago instead of after. However, their interpretations of the fossil record and timetrees are incorrect.