Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Leaf Traits, Neighbors, and Abiotic Factors: Ways That Context Can Mediate the Impact of Invasive Species on Nitrogen Cycling

Species invasions are more prevalent than ever before. While the addition of a species can dramatically change critical ecosystem processes, factors that mediate the direction and magnitude of those impacts have received less attention. A better understanding of the factors that mediate invasion impacts on ecosystem functioning is needed in order to target which exotic species will be most harmful and which systems are most vulnerable. The role of invasion on nitrogen (N) cycling is particularly important since N cycling controls ecosystem services that provision human health, e.g. nutrient retention and water quality.

We conducted a meta-analysis and in-depth studies focused on the invasive grass species, Microstegium vimineum, to better understand how (i) plant characteristics, (ii) invader abundance and neighbor identity, and (iii) environmental conditions mediate the impacts of invasion on N pools and fluxes. The results of our global meta-analysis support the concept that invasive species and reference community traits such as leaf %N and leaf C:N are useful for understanding invasion impacts on soil N cycling, but that trait dissimilarities between invaded and reference communities are most informative. Regarding the in-depth studies of Microstegium, we did not find evidence to suggest that invasion increases net nitrification as other studies have shown. Instead, we found that an interaction between its abundance and the neighboring plant identify were important for determining soil nitrate concentrations and net nitrification rates in the greenhouse. In field, we found that variability in environmental conditions mediated the impact of Microstegium invasion on soil N pools and fluxes, primarily net ammonification, between sites through direct, indirect, and interactive pathways. Notably, we detected a scenario in which forest openness has a negative direct effect and indirect positive effect on ammonification in sites with high soil moisture and organic matter. Collectively, our findings suggest that dissimilarity in plant community traits, neighbor identity, and environmental conditions can be important drivers of invasion impacts on ecosystem N cycling and should be considered when evaluating the ecosystem impacts of invasive species across heterogeneous landscapes.

The Relationship Between Support Systems and Disease Burden for Families Coping with Sickle Cell Disease in South Africa and Cameroon

Background: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a debilitating genetic blood disorder that seriously impacts the quality of life of affected individuals and their families. With 85% of cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, it is essential to identify the barriers and facilitators of optimal outcomes for people with SCD in this setting. This study focuses on understanding the relationship between support systems and disease outcomes for SCD patients and their families in Cameroon and South Africa.

Methods: This mixed-methods study utilizes surveys and semi-structured interviews to assess the experiences of 29 SCD patients and 28 caregivers of people with SCD across three cities in two African countries: Cape Town, South Africa; Yaoundé, Cameroon; and Limbe, Cameroon.

Results: Patients in Cameroon had less treatment options, a higher frequency of pain crises, and a higher incidence of malaria than patients in South Africa. Social support networks in Cameroon consisted of both family and friends and provided emotional, financial, and physical assistance during pain crises and hospital admissions. In South Africa, patients relied on a strong medical support system and social support primarily from close family members; they were also diagnosed later in life than those in Cameroon.

Conclusions: The strength of medical support systems influences the reliance of SCD patients and their caregivers on social support systems. In Cameroon the health care system does not adequately address all factors of SCD treatment and social networks of family and friends are used to complement the care received. In South Africa, strong medical and social support systems positively affect SCD disease burden for patients and their caregivers. SCD awareness campaigns are necessary to reduce the incidence of SCD and create stronger social support networks through increased community understanding and decreased stigma.

They’re There, Now What?: The Identities, Behaviors, and Perceptions of Black Judges

Prior to the Civil Rights Movement, fewer than 50 Black judges had been elected or appointed to the judiciary. As of August 2015, there are over 1,000 Black state and federal judges. As the number of black judges has increased, one question arises: have American courts been altered purely by this substantial increase? One expectation—and, at times, a prediction—behind the increased descriptive representation of Black judges is that their mere presence would alter the judiciary. It was supposed that these judges would substantively represent Black interests in the decisions they made. In other words, it was suspected, and predicted, that Blacks in the judiciary would enhance equality and justice by being aware of, responsive to, and advocating for African Americans. This theory about the likely role of Black judges derives from theoretical work on political representation and racial group consciousness, and empirical studies of Black elite behavior in other political institutions.

Despite such predictions, there is no corresponding scholarly consensus regarding whether Black judges possess a racial group consciousness and have racially distinctive judicial behavior. Therefore, the theory undergirding the demand for increased diversification, as a means to transform the judiciary, remains unsubstantiated. This is precisely where this project, “They’re There, Now What?: The Identities, Behavior, and Perceptions of Black Judges,” seeks to intervene in and explore, if not settle, the matter of whether black judges possess a racial group consciousness and exhibit racially-distinctive judicial behavior. It addresses a set of interrelated questions relevant to understanding whether we can view Black judges as representatives in ways that are similar to how we view other Black political officials. I examine these questions using a multi-method approach. For my analyses, I draw on diverse materials: the published biographies of every Black judge appointed to the federal bench, a survey experiment with a nationally-representative adult sample, and semi-structured interviews with 30 Black judges.

This research, which engages with scholarship on representation, group consciousness, judicial behavior, and candidate perceptions, offers new insights into the lives, perceptions, and behavior of Black judges, as well as the manifestations of Black substantive representation in the judiciary. My dissertation argues that, despite the general reluctance to use the term “representation” when referring to judges, we can consider Black judges as representatives. Black judges behave as substantive representatives by (1) sharing and understanding the experience, history, and perspectives of Black Americans, (2) challenging language, persons, policies, and laws they feel negatively affect, or violate the rights and liberties of, African Americans, (3) respecting African American litigants, and (4) ensuring the rights of African Americans are protected and the needs of black Americans are being met.

Only through research that considers the perspectives, identities, perceptions, and behavior of Black judges will we arrive at a more comprehensive understanding of the importance of racial diversity in the courts. As this project finds, a link between descriptive representation and substantive representation can, and frequently does exist within the judicial context. Such a link is significant given that Blacks’ liberty and justice through the American legal system continues to be subject to those who exercise judicial power. This dissertation has implications for the discourse surrounding the need for increased descriptive and substantive representation of Blacks in the judiciary, and the factors that affect representation in the justice system.