Pharmacogenomics in early-phase clinical development.

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) offers the promise of utilizing genetic fingerprints to predict individual responses to drugs in terms of safety, efficacy and pharmacokinetics. Early-phase clinical trial PGx applications can identify human genome variations that are meaningful to study design, selection of participants, allocation of resources and clinical research ethics. Results can inform later-phase study design and pipeline developmental decisions. Nevertheless, our review of the clinicaltrials.gov database demonstrates that PGx is rarely used by drug developers. Of the total 323 trials that included PGx as an outcome, 80% have been conducted by academic institutions after initial regulatory approval. Barriers for the application of PGx are discussed. We propose a framework for the role of PGx in early-phase drug development and recommend PGx be universally considered in study design, result interpretation and hypothesis generation for later-phase studies, but PGx results from underpowered studies should not be used by themselves to terminate drug-development programs.

Microbial Community Responses to Environmental Perturbation

Microorganisms mediate many biogeochemical processes critical to the functioning of ecosystems, which places them as an intermediate between environmental change and the resulting ecosystem response. Yet, we have an incomplete understanding of these relationships, how to predict them, and when they are influential. Understanding these dynamics will inform ecological principles developed for macroorganisms and aid expectations for microbial responses to new gradients. To address this research goal, I used two studies of environmental gradients and a literature synthesis.

With the gradient studies, I assessed microbial community composition in stream biofilms across a gradient of alkaline mine drainage. I used multivariate approaches to examine changes in the non-eukaryote microbial community composition of taxa (chapter 2) and functional genes (chapter 3). I found that stream biofilms at sites receiving alkaline mine drainage had distinct community composition and also differed in the composition of functional gene groups compared with unmined reference sites. Compositional shifts were not dominated by groups that could benefit from mining associated increases of terminal electron acceptors; two-thirds of responsive taxa and functional gene groups were negatively associated with mining. The majority of subsidies and stressors (nitrate, sulfate, conductivity) had no consistent relationships with taxa or gene abundances. However, methane metabolism genes were less abundant at mined sites and there was a strong, positive correlation between selenate reductase gene abundance and mining-associated selenium. These results highlighted the potential for indirect factors to also play an important role in explaining compositional shifts.

In the fourth chapter, I synthesized studies that use environmental perturbations to explore microbial community structure and microbial process connections. I examined nine journals (2009–13) and found that many qualifying papers (112 of 148) documented structure and process responses, but few (38 of 112 papers) reported statistically testing for a link. Of these tested links, 75% were significant. No particular approach for characterizing structure or processes was more likely to produce significant links. Process responses were detected earlier on average than responses in structure. Together, the findings suggested that few publications report statistically testing structure-process links; but when tested, links often occurred yet shared few commonalities in linked processes or structures and the techniques used for measuring them.

Although the research community has made progress, much work remains to ensure that the vast and growing wealth of microbial informatics data is translated into useful ecological information. In part, this challenge can be approached through using hypotheses to guide analyses, but also by being open to opportunities for hypothesis generation. The results from my dissertation work advise that it is important to carefully interpret shifts in community composition in relation to abiotic characteristics and recommend considering ecological, thermodynamic, and kinetic principles to understand the properties governing community responses to environmental perturbation.

Agglomeration effects in foreign direct investment and the pollution haven hypothesis

Does environmental regulation impair international competitiveness of pollution-intensive industries to the extent that they relocate to countries with less stringent regulation, turning those countries into "pollution havens"? We test this hypothesis using panel data on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows of various industries in the German manufacturing sector and account for several econometric issues that have been ignored in previous studies. Most importantly, we demonstrate that externalities associated with FDI agglomeration can bias estimates away from finding a pollution haven effect if omitted from the analysis. We include the stock of inward FDI as a proxy for agglomeration and employ a GMM estimator to control for endogenous time-varying determinants of FDI flows. Furthermore, we propose a difference estimator based on the least polluting industry to break the possible correlation between environmental regulatory stringency and unobservable attributes of FDI recipients in the cross-section. When accounting for these issues we find robust evidence of a pollution haven effect for the chemical industry. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Improving the generation of decision objectives

Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to the generation of decision objectives: not thinking broadly enough about the range of relevant objectives, and not thinking deeply enough to articulate every objective within the range that is considered. To test these explanations and explore ways of stimulating a more comprehensive set of objectives, we present three experiments involving a variety of interventions: the provision of sample objectives, organization of objectives by category, and direct challenges to do better, with or without a warning that important objectives are missing. The use of category names and direct challenges with a warning both led to improvements in the quantity of objectives generated without impacting their quality; other interventions yielded less improvement. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings to decision analysis and offering prescriptive implications for the elicitation of decision objectives. © 2010 INFORMS.

The induced innovation hypothesis and energy-saving technological change

We develop a methodology for testing Hicks's induced innovation hypothesis by estimating a product-characteristics model of energy-using consumer durables, augmenting the hypothesis to allow for the influence of government regulations. For the products we explored, the evidence suggests that (i) the rate of overall innovation was independent of energy prices and regulations; (ii) the direction of innovation was responsive to energy price changes for some products but not for others; (iii) energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that were offered for sale; (iv) this responsiveness increased substantially during the period after energy-efficiency product labeling was required; and (v) nonetheless, a sizable portion of efficiency improvements were autonomous.

The reappearance hypothesis revisited: recurrent involuntary memories after traumatic events and in everyday life.

Recurrent involuntary memories are autobiographical memories that come to mind with no preceding retrieval attempt and that are subjectively experienced as being repetitive. Clinically, they are classified as a symptom of posttraumatic stress disorder. The present work is the first to systematically examine recurrent involuntary memories outside clinical settings. Study 1 examines recurrent involuntary memories among survivors of the tsunami catastrophe in Southeast Asia in 2004. Study 2 examines recurrent involuntary memories in a large general population. Study 3 examines whether the contents of recurrent involuntary memories recorded in a diary study are duplicates of, or differ from, one another. We show that recurrent involuntary memories are not limited to clinical populations or to emotionally negative experiences; that they typically do not come to mind in a fixed and unchangeable form; and that they show the same pattern regarding accessibility as do autobiographical memories in general. We argue that recurrent involuntary memories after traumas and in everyday life can be explained in terms of general and well-established mechanisms of autobiographical memory.

Revisiting the monoamine hypothesis of depression: a new perspective.

As the incidence of depression increases, depression continues to inflict additional suffering to individuals and societies and better therapies are needed. Based on magnetic resonance spectroscopy and laboratory findings, gamma aminobutyric acid (GABA) may be intimately involved in the pathophysiology of depression. The isoelectric point of GABA (pI = 7.3) closely approximates the pH of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF). This may not be a trivial observation as it may explain preliminary spectrophotometric, enzymatic, and HPLC data that monoamine oxidase (MAO) deaminates GABA. Although MAO is known to deaminate substrates such as catecholamines, indoleamines, and long chain aliphatic amines all of which contain a lipophilic moiety, there is very good evidence to predict that a low concentration of a very lipophilic microspecies of GABA is present when GABA pI = pH as in the CSF. Inhibiting deamination of this microspecies of GABA could explain the well-established successful treatment of refractory depression with MAO inhibitors (MAOI) when other antidepressants that target exclusively levels of monoamines fail. If further experimental work can confirm these preliminary findings, physicians may consider revisiting the use of MAOI for the treatment of non-intractable depression because the potential benefits of increasing GABA as well as the monoamines may outweigh the risks associated with MAOI therapy.

Chronic opioid therapy and opioid tolerance: a new hypothesis.

Opioids are efficacious and cost-effective analgesics, but tolerance limits their effectiveness. This paper does not present any new clinical or experimental data but demonstrates that there exist ascending sensory pathways that contain few opioid receptors. These pathways are located by brain PET scans and spinal cord autoradiography. These nonopioid ascending pathways include portions of the ventral spinal thalamic tract originating in Rexed layers VI-VIII, thalamocortical fibers that project to the primary somatosensory cortex (S1), and possibly a midline dorsal column visceral pathway. One hypothesis is that opioid tolerance and opioid-induced hyperalgesia may be caused by homeostatic upregulation during opioid exposure of nonopioid-dependent ascending pain pathways. Upregulation of sensory pathways is not a new concept and has been demonstrated in individuals impaired with deafness or blindness. A second hypothesis is that adjuvant nonopioid therapies may inhibit ascending nonopioid-dependent pathways and support the clinical observations that monotherapy with opioids usually fails. The uniqueness of opioid tolerance compared to tolerance associated with other central nervous system medications and lack of tolerance from excess hormone production is discussed. Experimental work that could prove or disprove the concepts as well as flaws in the concepts is discussed.

What the brain stem tells the frontal cortex. II. Role of the SC-MD-FEF pathway in corollary discharge.

One way we keep track of our movements is by monitoring corollary discharges or internal copies of movement commands. This study tested a hypothesis that the pathway from superior colliculus (SC) to mediodorsal thalamus (MD) to frontal eye field (FEF) carries a corollary discharge about saccades made into the contralateral visual field. We inactivated the MD relay node with muscimol in monkeys and measured corollary discharge deficits using a double-step task: two sequential saccades were made to the locations of briefly flashed targets. To make second saccades correctly, monkeys had to internally monitor their first saccades; therefore deficits in the corollary discharge representation of first saccades should disrupt second saccades. We found, first, that monkeys seemed to misjudge the amplitudes of their first saccades; this was revealed by systematic shifts in second saccade end points. Thus corollary discharge accuracy was impaired. Second, monkeys were less able to detect trial-by-trial variations in their first saccades; this was revealed by reduced compensatory changes in second saccade angles. Thus corollary discharge precision also was impaired. Both deficits occurred only when first saccades went into the contralateral visual field. Single-saccade generation was unaffected. Additional deficits occurred in reaction time and overall performance, but these were bilateral. We conclude that the SC-MD-FEF pathway conveys a corollary discharge used for coordinating sequential saccades and possibly for stabilizing vision across saccades. This pathway is the first elucidated in what may be a multilevel chain of corollary discharge circuits extending from the extraocular motoneurons up into cerebral cortex.