Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

Olfactory conditioning facilitates diet transition in human infants.

We evaluated whether Pavlovian conditioning methods could be used to increase the ingestion of non-preferred solutions by formula-fed human infants. In baseline measures, 5-7 month old infants sucked less frequently and consumed less water than regular formula. During a 3-day olfactory conditioning period, parents placed a small scented disk, the conditioned stimulus, on the rim of their infants' formula bottle at every feeding. Following this training, infants' responses to water were tested when their water bottles had a disk scented with the training odor, a novel odor, or no odor. Infants tested with the training odor sucked more frequently and consumed significantly more water than they had at baseline. Infants tested with no odor or a novel odor consumed water at or below baseline levels. These data demonstrate that olfactory conditioning can be used to enhance ingestion in infants and suggest that such methods may be useful for infants experiencing difficulty when making transitions from one diet to another.

MRP3: a molecular target for human glioblastoma multiforme immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is refractory to conventional therapies. To overcome the problem of heterogeneity, more brain tumor markers are required for prognosis and targeted therapy. We have identified and validated a promising molecular therapeutic target that is expressed by GBM: human multidrug-resistance protein 3 (MRP3). METHODS: We investigated MRP3 by genetic and immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of human gliomas to determine the incidence, distribution, and localization of MRP3 antigens in GBM and their potential correlation with survival. To determine MRP3 mRNA transcript and protein expression levels, we performed quantitative RT-PCR, raising MRP3-specific antibodies, and IHC analysis with biopsies of newly diagnosed GBM patients. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to assess the correlation of RNA expression and IHC of MRP3 with patient survival, with and without adjustment for age, extent of resection, and KPS. RESULTS: Real-time PCR results from 67 GBM biopsies indicated that 59/67 (88%) samples highly expressed MRP3 mRNA transcripts, in contrast with minimal expression in normal brain samples. Rabbit polyvalent and murine monoclonal antibodies generated against an extracellular span of MRP3 protein demonstrated reactivity with defined MRP3-expressing cell lines and GBM patient biopsies by Western blotting and FACS analyses, the latter establishing cell surface MRP3 protein expression. IHC evaluation of 46 GBM biopsy samples with anti-MRP3 IgG revealed MRP3 in a primarily membranous and cytoplasmic pattern in 42 (91%) of the 46 samples. Relative RNA expression was a strong predictor of survival for newly diagnosed GBM patients. Hazard of death for GBM patients with high levels of MRP3 RNA expression was 2.71 (95% CI: 1.54-4.80) times that of patients with low/moderate levels (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Human GBMs overexpress MRP3 at both mRNA and protein levels, and elevated MRP3 mRNA levels in GBM biopsy samples correlated with a higher risk of death. These data suggest that the tumor-associated antigen MRP3 has potential use for prognosis and as a target for malignant glioma immunotherapy.

The characterization of twenty sequenced human genomes.

We present the analysis of twenty human genomes to evaluate the prospects for identifying rare functional variants that contribute to a phenotype of interest. We sequenced at high coverage ten "case" genomes from individuals with severe hemophilia A and ten "control" genomes. We summarize the number of genetic variants emerging from a study of this magnitude, and provide a proof of concept for the identification of rare and highly-penetrant functional variants by confirming that the cause of hemophilia A is easily recognizable in this data set. We also show that the number of novel single nucleotide variants (SNVs) discovered per genome seems to stabilize at about 144,000 new variants per genome, after the first 15 individuals have been sequenced. Finally, we find that, on average, each genome carries 165 homozygous protein-truncating or stop loss variants in genes representing a diverse set of pathways.

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.