Seeing the forest for the fuel

We demonstrate a new approach to understanding the role of fuelwood in the rural household economy by applying insights from travel cost modeling to author-compiled household survey data and meso-scale environmental statistics from Ruteng Park in Flores, Indonesia. We characterize Manggarai farming households' fuelwood collection trips as inputs into household production of the utility yielding service of cooking and heating. The number of trips taken by households depends on the shadow price of fuelwood collection or the travel cost, which is endogenous. Econometric analyses using truncated negative binomial regression models and correcting for endogeneity show that the Manggarai are 'economically rational' about fuelwood collection and access to the forests for fuelwood makes substantial contributions to household welfare. Increasing cost of forest access, wealth, use of alternative fuels, ownership of kerosene stoves, trees on farm, park staff activity, primary schools and roads, and overall development could all reduce dependence on collecting fuelwood from forests. © 2004 Cambridge University Press.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reminders, Refugees, and Ramadan: Characterizing Missed Immunization Appointments among Palestinian Refugees in Jordan

There are currently over two million Palestinian refugees residing in Jordan, 370,000 of whom reside in refugee camps. Due to conflict-affiliated disease outbreaks among children in the region, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has identified incomplete vaccination as a critical public health issue and has invested in the development and implementation of a text message reminder service for preventing loss-to-follow-up. Childhood immunization rates in UNRWA catchment regions are generally high, yet little is known about risk factors for missed appointments, which impose a substantial administrative burden due to the need to contact patients for rescheduling. Stronger user characterization is necessary for improved targeting and minimized cost as we develop a more robust SMS system capable of scaling across all health facilities.

This mixed-methods study prospectively recorded 6 months of immunization history among a cohort of children born in June 2014 at Taybeh Health Center in Amman. Demographic information was collected at the time of birth, and caregivers of cohort members were invited to participate in interviews that assessed immunization knowledge, preferences, decision-making, and experience with the SMS reminder system. Patients were more likely to significantly delay appointments during the Ramadan holiday and for doses further from the child date of birth. Future policies that might bridge these gaps include targeting pre-appointment SMS reminders to high-risk patients, implementing holiday shifts in clinic hours, and regularly updating patient contact information.