Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

Health events and the smoking cessation of middle aged Americans.

This study investigates the effect of serious health events including new diagnoses of heart attacks, strokes, cancers, chronic lung disease, chronic heart failure, diabetes, and heart disease on future smoking status up to 6 years postevent. Data come from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Americans aged 51-61 in 1991, followed every 2 years from 1992 to 1998. Smoking status is evaluated at each of three follow-ups, (1994, 1996, and 1998) as a function of health events between each of the four waves. Acute and chronic health events are associated with much lower likelihood of smoking both in the wave immediately following the event and up to 6 years later. However, future events do not retrospectively predict past cessation. In sum, serious health events have substantial impacts on cessation rates of older smokers. Notably, these effects persist for as much as 6 years after a health event.

Outpatient Mental Health Services in Mozambique: Use and Treatments.

To describe current outpatient mental health service use and treatments in Mozambique, the authors reviewed registry entries for 2,071 outpatient psychiatric visits at the Beira Central Hospital in Sofala Province from January 2012 to September 2014. Service use was most common for schizophrenia, followed by epilepsy, delirium, and organic behavioral disorders. Only 3% of consultations for schizophrenia were first-visit patients. Treatment seeking among women was more likely for mood and neurotic disorders and less likely for substance use disorders and epilepsy. First-generation antipsychotics, most often paired with promethazine, dominated treatment regimens. Evidence-based reforms are needed to improve identification of mood disorders and broaden care beyond severe mental disorders.

The Barriers to the Integration of the Uterine Balloon Tamponade into South Africa and Ghana's Health Systems for the Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

Background

Postpartum hemorrhage is the most significant contributor to maternal mortality globally, claiming 140,000 lives annually. Postpartum hemorrhage is a leading cause of maternal death in South Africa, with the literature indicating that 80 percent of the postpartum hemorrhage deaths in South Africa are avoidable. Ghana, as of 2010, witnesses 2700 maternal deaths annually, primarily because of poor quality of care in health facilities and services being difficult to access. As per WHO recommendations, uterotonics are integral to treating postpartum hemorrhage as soon as it is diagnosed. In case of persistent bleeding or limited availability of uterotonics, the uterine balloon tamponade (UBT) can be used as a second line of defense. If both these measures are unable to counter the bleeding, providers must perform surgical interventions. Literature on the UBT, as one tool in the protocol to address postpartum hemorrhage, has shown it to have success rates ranging from 60 to 100 percent. Despite the potential to lower the number of postpartum hemorrhage deaths in South Africa and Ghana, the UBT has not been incorporated widely in South Africa and Ghana. The aim of this study is to describe the barriers involved with integrating the UBT into South Africa and Ghana’s health systems to address postpartum hemorrhage.

Methods

The study took place in multiple sites in South Africa (Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban and Mpumalanga) and in Accra, Ghana. South Africa and Ghana were selected because postpartum hemorrhage contributes greatly to their maternal mortality numbers and there is potential in both countries to lower those rates through greater use of the UBT. A total of 25 participants were interviewed through purposive sampling, snowball sampling and participant referrals, and included various categories of stakeholders integral to the integration process of a medical device. Individual in-depth interviews were used for data collection, with interview questions being tailored to each stakeholder category. The focus of the interviews was on the protocol used to counter postpartum hemorrhage, the frequency with which the UBT is used as part of the protocol, and the process of integrating it into the South Africa and Ghana’s health systems. The data collected were coded using NVivo and analyzed using content analysis.

Results

The barriers to integration of the uterine balloon tamponade to address postpartum hemorrhage in South Africa and Ghana were evident on the political, economic and health delivery levels. The results indicated that the barriers to integration in South Africa included the low recognition of postpartum hemorrhage as a problem, the lack of clarity surrounding the role of the Medicines Control Council as a regulatory body for medical devices, and low awareness of the UBT as an intervention to control postpartum hemorrhage. The barriers in Ghana were the cash constraints experienced by the Ghana Health Services to fund medical devices, a heavy reliance on donors for funding, and the lack of consistent knowledge on processes involving clinical trials for new medical devices in Ghana.

Conclusion

Existing literature on methods to counter postpartum hemorrhage to reduce maternal mortality has focused on and emphasized the efficacy of the UBT. Despite overwhelming evidence supporting the use of the UBT, many health systems across the world, particularly low-income countries, do not have access to the device owing to numerous barriers in integrating the device into obstetric care. This study illustrates the need to focus on incorporating the UBT into health systems for greater availability to health workers and its use as standard of care. Ultimately, this study can be used as a stepping-stone for more research on this subject, providing evidence to influence policymakers to integrate the UBT into their protocols for postpartum hemorrhage response.

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee.

An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. First the surface release of coal ash with high levels of toxic elements (As = 75 mg/kg; Hg = 150 microg/kg) and radioactivity (226Ra + 228Ra = 8 pCi/g) to the environment has the potential to generate resuspended ambient fine particles (< 10 microm) containing these toxics into the atmosphere that may pose a health risk to local communities. Second, leaching of contaminants from the coal ash caused contamination of surface waters in areas of restricted water exchange, but only trace levels were found in the downstream Emory and Clinch Rivers due to river dilution. Third, the accumulation of Hg- and As-rich coal ash in river sediments has the potential to have an impact on the ecological system in the downstream rivers by fish poisoning and methylmercury formation in anaerobic river sediments.