A Decentralized Iron Cage: Do Chinese Local Officials Comply with the Central Government?

This paper contributes to the literature in nancial aid and authoritarian institutions.

For a long time, scholars are debating whether nancial aid is able to facilitate

development and governance. Though abundant evidence is provided, the answer is

still inconclusive. On the other hand, scholars investigating China argue that the

leadership uses various institutions to ensure local ocials' compliance. In this paper,

we nd that the nancial aid does not bring a positive impact and the central

government in China does not have enough monitoring capacity to force local o-

cials to comply. We study a redevelopment program established by Chinese central

government after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. By adopting a geographic regression

discontinuity combining with a dierence-in-dierences design, we show that

the redevelopment program does not signicantly develop the disaster area. On the

contrary, the evidence implies that the economy in the disaster area is worse after

receiving the aid. The results imply that local ocials do not follow the central government's

regulations and misuse the aid money for other purposes. In the future, we

expect to further investigate through which mechanism do local ocials undermine

the existing institutions.

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Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Weighted and two-stage least squares estimation of semiparametric truncated regression models

This paper provides a root-n consistent, asymptotically normal weighted least squares estimator of the coefficients in a truncated regression model. The distribution of the errors is unknown and permits general forms of unknown heteroskedasticity. Also provided is an instrumental variables based two-stage least squares estimator for this model, which can be used when some regressors are endogenous, mismeasured, or otherwise correlated with the errors. A simulation study indicates that the new estimators perform well in finite samples. Our limiting distribution theory includes a new asymptotic trimming result addressing the boundary bias in first-stage density estimation without knowledge of the support boundary. © 2007 Cambridge University Press.

Spatial distribution of bednet coverage under routine distribution through the public health sector in a rural district in Kenya.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most important and cost-effective tools for malaria control. Maximizing individual and community benefit from ITNs requires high population-based coverage. Several mechanisms are used to distribute ITNs, including health facility-based targeted distribution to high-risk groups; community-based mass distribution; social marketing with or without private sector subsidies; and integrating ITN delivery with other public health interventions. The objective of this analysis is to describe bednet coverage in a district in western Kenya where the primary mechanism for distribution is to pregnant women and infants who attend antenatal and immunization clinics. We use data from a population-based census to examine the extent of, and factors correlated with, ownership of bednets. We use both multivariable logistic regression and spatial techniques to explore the relationship between household bednet ownership and sociodemographic and geographic variables. We show that only 21% of households own any bednets, far lower than the national average, and that ownership is not significantly higher amongst pregnant women attending antenatal clinic. We also show that coverage is spatially heterogeneous with less than 2% of the population residing in zones with adequate coverage to experience indirect effects of ITN protection.

Reduction of malaria prevalence by indoor residual spraying: a meta-regression analysis.

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) has become an increasingly popular method of insecticide use for malaria control, and many recent studies have reported on its effectiveness in reducing malaria burden in a single community or region. There is a need for systematic review and integration of the published literature on IRS and the contextual determining factors of its success in controlling malaria. This study reports the findings of a meta-regression analysis based on 13 published studies, which were chosen from more than 400 articles through a systematic search and selection process. The summary relative risk for reducing malaria prevalence was 0.38 (95% confidence interval = 0.31-0.46), which indicated a risk reduction of 62%. However, an excessive degree of heterogeneity was found between the studies. The meta-regression analysis indicates that IRS is more effective with high initial prevalence, multiple rounds of spraying, use of DDT, and in regions with a combination of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria.

Lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial regression

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a log-normal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).

The Effects of Geography, Environment and Phylogeny on Community Assembly and Gene Flow Dynamics

It is increasingly evident that evolutionary processes play a role in how ecological communities are assembled. However the extend to which evolution influences how plants respond to spatial and environmental gradients and interact with each other is less clear. In this dissertation I leverage evolutionary tools and thinking to understand how space and environment affect community composition and patterns of gene flow in a unique system of Atlantic rainforest and restinga (sandy coastal plains) habitats in Southeastern Brazil.

In chapter one I investigate how space and environment affect the population genetic structure and gene flow of Aechmea nudicaulis, a bromeliad species that co-occurs in forest and restinga habitats. I genotyped seven microsatellite loci and sequenced one chloroplast DNA region for individuals collected in 7 pairs of forest / restinga sites. Bayesian genetic clustering analyses show that populations of A. nudicaulis are geographically structured in northern and southern populations, a pattern consistent with broader scale phylogeographic dynamics of the Atlantic rainforest. On the other hand, explicit migration models based on the coalescent estimate that inter-habitat gene flow is less common than gene flow between populations in the same habitat type, despite their geographic discontinuity. I conclude that there is evidence for repeated colonization of the restingas from forest populations even though the steep environmental gradient between habitats is a stronger barrier to gene flow than geographic distance.

In chapter two I use data on 2800 individual plants finely mapped in a restinga plot and on first-year survival of 500 seedlings to understand the roles of phylogeny, functional traits and abiotic conditions in the spatial structuring of that community. I demonstrate that phylogeny is a poor predictor of functional traits in and that convergence in these traits is pervasive. In general, the community is not phylogenetically structured, with at best 14% of the plots deviating significantly from the null model. The functional traits SLA, leaf dry matter content (LDMC), and maximum height also showed no clear pattern of spatial structuring. On the other hand, leaf area is strongly overdispersed across all spatial scales. Although leaf area overdispersion would be generally taken as evidence of competition, I argue that interpretation is probably misleading. Finally, I show that seedling survival is dramatically increased when they grow shaded by an adult individual, suggesting that seedlings are being facilitated. Phylogenetic distance to their adult neighbor has no influence on rates of survival though. Taken together, these results indicate that phylogeny has very limited influence on the fine scale assembly of restinga communities.

Associations between BMI and home, school and route environmental exposures estimated using GPS and GIS: do we see evidence of selective daily mobility bias in children?

BACKGROUND: This study examined whether objective measures of food, physical activity and built environment exposures, in home and non-home settings, contribute to children's body weight. Further, comparing GPS and GIS measures of environmental exposures along routes to and from school, we tested for evidence of selective daily mobility bias when using GPS data. METHODS: This study is a cross-sectional analysis, using objective assessments of body weight in relation to multiple environmental exposures. Data presented are from a sample of 94 school-aged children, aged 5-11 years. Children's heights and weights were measured by trained researchers, and used to calculate BMI z-scores. Participants wore a GPS device for one full week. Environmental exposures were estimated within home and school neighbourhoods, and along GIS (modelled) and GPS (actual) routes from home to school. We directly compared associations between BMI and GIS-modelled versus GPS-derived environmental exposures. The study was conducted in Mebane and Mount Airy, North Carolina, USA, in 2011. RESULTS: In adjusted regression models, greater school walkability was associated with significantly lower mean BMI. Greater home walkability was associated with increased BMI, as was greater school access to green space. Adjusted associations between BMI and route exposure characteristics were null. The use of GPS-actual route exposures did not appear to confound associations between environmental exposures and BMI in this sample. CONCLUSIONS: This study found few associations between environmental exposures in home, school and commuting domains and body weight in children. However, walkability of the school neighbourhood may be important. Of the other significant associations observed, some were in unexpected directions. Importantly, we found no evidence of selective daily mobility bias in this sample, although our study design is in need of replication in a free-living adult sample.