A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets

Assuming that daily spot exchange rates follow a martingale process, we derive the implied time series process for the vector of 30-day forward rate forecast errors from using weekly data. The conditional second moment matrix of this vector is modelled as a multivariate generalized ARCH process. The estimated model is used to test the hypothesis that the risk premium is a linear function of the conditional variances and covariances as suggested by the standard asset pricing theory literature. Little supportt is found for this theory; instead lagged changes in the forward rate appear to be correlated with the 'risk premium.'. © 1990.

Generalized sampling using a compound-eye imaging system for multi-dimensional object acquisition.

In this paper, we propose generalized sampling approaches for measuring a multi-dimensional object using a compact compound-eye imaging system called thin observation module by bound optics (TOMBO). This paper shows the proposed system model, physical examples, and simulations to verify TOMBO imaging using generalized sampling. In the system, an object is modulated and multiplied by a weight distribution with physical coding, and the coded optical signal is integrated on to a detector array. A numerical estimation algorithm employing a sparsity constraint is used for object reconstruction.

[N]pT ensemble and finite-size-scaling study of the critical isostructural transition in the generalized exponential model of index 4.

First-order transitions of system where both lattice site occupancy and lattice spacing fluctuate, such as cluster crystals, cannot be efficiently studied by traditional simulation methods, which necessarily fix one of these two degrees of freedom. The difficulty, however, can be surmounted by the generalized [N]pT ensemble [J. Chem. Phys. 136, 214106 (2012)]. Here we show that histogram reweighting and the [N]pT ensemble can be used to study an isostructural transition between cluster crystals of different occupancy in the generalized exponential model of index 4 (GEM-4). Extending this scheme to finite-size scaling studies also allows us to accurately determine the critical point parameters and to verify that it belongs to the Ising universality class.

Mixtures of g-priors in Generalized Linear Models

Mixtures of Zellner's g-priors have been studied extensively in linear models and have been shown to have numerous desirable properties for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging. Several extensions of g-priors to Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) have been proposed in the literature; however, the choice of prior distribution of g and resulting properties for inference have received considerably less attention. In this paper, we extend mixtures of g-priors to GLMs by assigning the truncated Compound Confluent Hypergeometric (tCCH) distribution to 1/(1+g) and illustrate how this prior distribution encompasses several special cases of mixtures of g-priors in the literature, such as the Hyper-g, truncated Gamma, Beta-prime, and the Robust prior. Under an integrated Laplace approximation to the likelihood, the posterior distribution of 1/(1+g) is in turn a tCCH distribution, and approximate marginal likelihoods are thus available analytically. We discuss the local geometric properties of the g-prior in GLMs and show that specific choices of the hyper-parameters satisfy the various desiderata for model selection proposed by Bayarri et al, such as asymptotic model selection consistency, information consistency, intrinsic consistency, and measurement invariance. We also illustrate inference using these priors and contrast them to others in the literature via simulation and real examples.