Detecting separate time scales in genetic expression data.

BACKGROUND: Biological processes occur on a vast range of time scales, and many of them occur concurrently. As a result, system-wide measurements of gene expression have the potential to capture many of these processes simultaneously. The challenge however, is to separate these processes and time scales in the data. In many cases the number of processes and their time scales is unknown. This issue is particularly relevant to developmental biologists, who are interested in processes such as growth, segmentation and differentiation, which can all take place simultaneously, but on different time scales. RESULTS: We introduce a flexible and statistically rigorous method for detecting different time scales in time-series gene expression data, by identifying expression patterns that are temporally shifted between replicate datasets. We apply our approach to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell-cycle dataset and an Arabidopsis thaliana root developmental dataset. In both datasets our method successfully detects processes operating on several different time scales. Furthermore we show that many of these time scales can be associated with particular biological functions. CONCLUSIONS: The spatiotemporal modules identified by our method suggest the presence of multiple biological processes, acting at distinct time scales in both the Arabidopsis root and yeast. Using similar large-scale expression datasets, the identification of biological processes acting at multiple time scales in many organisms is now possible.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics: intertwining ecological and evolutionary processes in contemporary time.

Evolution occurring over contemporary time scales can have important effects on populations, communities, and ecosystems. Recent studies show that the magnitude of these effects can be large and can generate feedbacks that further shape evolution.

Spatial and temporal scales of neuronal correlation in visual area V4.

The spiking activity of nearby cortical neurons is correlated on both short and long time scales. Understanding this shared variability in firing patterns is critical for appreciating the representation of sensory stimuli in ensembles of neurons, the coincident influences of neurons on common targets, and the functional implications of microcircuitry. Our knowledge about neuronal correlations, however, derives largely from experiments that used different recording methods, analysis techniques, and cortical regions. Here we studied the structure of neuronal correlation in area V4 of alert macaques using recording and analysis procedures designed to match those used previously in primary visual cortex (V1), the major input to V4. We found that the spatial and temporal properties of correlations in V4 were remarkably similar to those of V1, with two notable differences: correlated variability in V4 was approximately one-third the magnitude of that in V1 and synchrony in V4 was less temporally precise than in V1. In both areas, spontaneous activity (measured during fixation while viewing a blank screen) was approximately twice as correlated as visual-evoked activity. The results provide a foundation for understanding how the structure of neuronal correlation differs among brain regions and stages in cortical processing and suggest that it is likely governed by features of neuronal circuits that are shared across the visual cortex.

Elucidating the Space-Time Structure of Low Level Warm Season Precipitation Processes in the Southern Appalachian Mountains Using Models and Observations

Light rainfall is the baseline input to the annual water budget in mountainous landscapes through the tropics and at mid-latitudes. In the Southern Appalachians, the contribution from light rainfall ranges from 50-60% during wet years to 80-90% during dry years, with convective activity and tropical cyclone input providing most of the interannual variability. The Southern Appalachians is a region characterized by rich biodiversity that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to a rapidly growing population. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region has been well documented since the colonization of the area in terms of species health, fire frequency, and overall biodiversity. The overarching objective of this research is to elucidate the microphysics of light rainfall and the dynamics of low level moisture in the inner region of the Southern Appalachians during the warm season, with a focus on orographically mediated processes. The overarching research hypothesis is that physical processes leading to and governing the life cycle of orographic fog, low level clouds, and precipitation, and their interactions, are strongly tied to landform, land cover, and the diurnal cycles of flow patterns, radiative forcing, and surface fluxes at the ridge-valley scale. The following science questions will be addressed specifically: 1) How do orographic clouds and fog affect the hydrometeorological regime from event to annual scale and as a function of terrain characteristics and land cover?; 2) What are the source areas, governing processes, and relevant time-scales of near surface moisture convergence patterns in the region?; and 3) What are the four dimensional microphysical and dynamical characteristics, including variability and controlling factors and processes, of fog and light rainfall? The research was conducted with two major components: 1) ground-based high-quality observations using multi-sensor platforms and 2) interpretive numerical modeling guided by the analysis of the in situ data collection. Findings illuminate a high level of spatial – down to the ridge scale - and temporal – from event to annual scale - heterogeneity in observations, and a significant impact on the hydrological regime as a result of seeder-feeder interactions among fog, low level clouds, and stratiform rainfall that enhance coalescence efficiency and lead to significantly higher rainfall rates at the land surface. Specifically, results show that enhancement of an event up to one order of magnitude in short-term accumulation can occur as a result of concurrent fog presence. Results also show that events are modulated strongly by terrain characteristics including elevation, slope, geometry, and land cover. These factors produce interactions between highly localized flows and gradients of temperature and moisture with larger scale circulations. Resulting observations of DSD and rainfall patterns are stratified by region and altitude and exhibit clear diurnal and seasonal cycles.

Optimized, unequal pulse spacing in multiple echo sequences improves refocusing in magnetic resonance.

A recent quantum computing paper (G. S. Uhrig, Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 100504 (2007)) analytically derived optimal pulse spacings for a multiple spin echo sequence designed to remove decoherence in a two-level system coupled to a bath. The spacings in what has been called a "Uhrig dynamic decoupling (UDD) sequence" differ dramatically from the conventional, equal pulse spacing of a Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) multiple spin echo sequence. The UDD sequence was derived for a model that is unrelated to magnetic resonance, but was recently shown theoretically to be more general. Here we show that the UDD sequence has theoretical advantages for magnetic resonance imaging of structured materials such as tissue, where diffusion in compartmentalized and microstructured environments leads to fluctuating fields on a range of different time scales. We also show experimentally, both in excised tissue and in a live mouse tumor model, that optimal UDD sequences produce different T(2)-weighted contrast than do CPMG sequences with the same number of pulses and total delay, with substantial enhancements in most regions. This permits improved characterization of low-frequency spectral density functions in a wide range of applications.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks in community and ecosystem ecology: interactions between the ecological theatre and the evolutionary play.

Interactions between natural selection and environmental change are well recognized and sit at the core of ecology and evolutionary biology. Reciprocal interactions between ecology and evolution, eco-evolutionary feedbacks, are less well studied, even though they may be critical for understanding the evolution of biological diversity, the structure of communities and the function of ecosystems. Eco-evolutionary feedbacks require that populations alter their environment (niche construction) and that those changes in the environment feed back to influence the subsequent evolution of the population. There is strong evidence that organisms influence their environment through predation, nutrient excretion and habitat modification, and that populations evolve in response to changes in their environment at time-scales congruent with ecological change (contemporary evolution). Here, we outline how the niche construction and contemporary evolution interact to alter the direction of evolution and the structure and function of communities and ecosystems. We then present five empirical systems that highlight important characteristics of eco-evolutionary feedbacks: rotifer-algae chemostats; alewife-zooplankton interactions in lakes; guppy life-history evolution and nutrient cycling in streams; avian seed predators and plants; and tree leaf chemistry and soil processes. The alewife-zooplankton system provides the most complete evidence for eco-evolutionary feedbacks, but other systems highlight the potential for eco-evolutionary feedbacks in a wide variety of natural systems.

Four-decade responses of soil trace elements to an aggrading old-field forest: B, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Fe.

In the ancient and acidic Ultisol soils of the Southern Piedmont, USA, we studied changes in trace element biogeochemistry over four decades, a period during which formerly cultivated cotton fields were planted with pine seedlings that grew into mature forest stands. In 16 permanent plots, we estimated 40-year accumulations of trace elements in forest biomass and O horizons (between 1957 and 1997), and changes in bioavailable soil fractions indexed by extractions of 0.05 mol/L HCl and 0.2 mol/L acid ammonium oxalate (AAO). Element accumulations in 40-year tree biomass plus O horizons totaled 0.9, 2.9, 4.8, 49.6, and 501.3 kg/ha for Cu, B, Zn, Mn, and Fe, respectively. In response to this forest development, samples of the upper 0.6-m of mineral soil archived in 1962 and 1997 followed one of three patterns. (1) Extractable B and Mn were significantly depleted, by -4.1 and -57.7 kg/ha with AAO, depletions comparable to accumulations in biomass plus O horizons, 2.9 and 49.6 kg/ha, respectively. Tree uptake of B and Mn from mineral soil greatly outpaced resupplies from atmospheric deposition, mineral weathering, and deep-root uptake. (2) Extractable Zn and Cu changed little during forest growth, indicating that nutrient resupplies kept pace with accumulations by the aggrading forest. (3) Oxalate-extractable Fe increased substantially during forest growth, by 275.8 kg/ha, about 10-fold more than accumulations in tree biomass (28.7 kg/ha). The large increases in AAO-extractable Fe in surficial 0.35-m mineral soils were accompanied by substantial accretions of Fe in the forest's O horizon, by 473 kg/ha, amounts that dwarfed inputs via litterfall and canopy throughfall, indicating that forest Fe cycling is qualitatively different from that of other macro- and micronutrients. Bioturbation of surficial forest soil layers cannot account for these fractions and transformations of Fe, and we hypothesize that the secondary forest's large inputs of organic additions over four decades has fundamentally altered soil Fe oxides, potentially altering the bioavailability and retention of macro- and micronutrients, contaminants, and organic matter itself. The wide range of responses among the ecosystem's trace elements illustrates the great dynamics of the soil system over time scales of decades.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.

Steady flow dynamics during granular impact.

We study experimentally and computationally the dynamics of granular flow during impacts where intruders strike a collection of disks from above. In the regime where granular force dynamics are much more rapid than the intruder motion, we find that the particle flow near the intruder is proportional to the instantaneous intruder speed; it is essentially constant when normalized by that speed. The granular flow is nearly divergence free and remains in balance with the intruder, despite the latter's rapid deceleration. Simulations indicate that this observation is insensitive to grain properties, which can be explained by the separation of time scales between intergrain force dynamics and intruder dynamics. Assuming there is a comparable separation of time scales, we expect that our results are applicable to a broad class of dynamic or transient granular flows. Our results suggest that descriptions of static-in-time granular flows might be extended or modified to describe these dynamic flows. Additionally, we find that accurate grain-grain interactions are not necessary to correctly capture the granular flow in this regime.

Effects of Natural Organic Matter on the Dissolution Kinetics and Bioavailability of Metal Oxide Nanoparticles

The rapid development of nanotechnology and wider applications of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in the last few decades have generated concerns regarding their environmental and health risks. After release into the environment, ENMs undergo aggregation, transformation, and, for metal-based nanomaterials, dissolution processes, which together determine their fate, bioavailability and toxicity to living organisms in the ecosystems. The rates of these processes are dependent on nanomaterial characteristics as well as complex environmental factors, including natural organic matter (NOM). As a ubiquitous component of aquatic systems, NOM plays a key role in the aggregation, dissolution and transformation of metal-based nanomaterials and colloids in aquatic environments.

The goal of this dissertation work is to investigate how NOM fractions with different chemical and molecular properties affect the dissolution kinetics of metal oxide ENMs, such as zinc oxide (ZnO) and copper oxide (CuO) nanoparticles (NPs), and consequently their bioavailability to aquatic vertebrate, with Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) embryos as model organisms.

ZnO NPs are known to dissolve at relatively fast rates, and the rate of dissolution is influenced by water chemistry, including the presence of Zn-chelating ligands. A challenge, however, remains in quantifying the dissolution of ZnO NPs, particularly for time scales that are short enough to determine rates. This dissertation assessed the application of anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) with a hanging mercury drop electrode to directly measure the concentration of dissolved Zn in ZnO NP suspensions, without separation of the ZnO NPs from the aqueous phase. Dissolved zinc concentration measured by ASV ([Zn]ASV) was compared with that measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) after ultracentrifugation ([Zn]ICP-MS), for four types of ZnO NPs with different coatings and primary particle diameters. For small ZnO NPs (4-5 nm), [Zn]ASV was 20% higher than [Zn]ICP-MS, suggesting that these small NPs contributed to the voltammetric measurement. For larger ZnO NPs (approximately 20 nm), [Zn]ASV was (79±19)% of [Zn]ICP-MS, despite the high concentrations of ZnO NPs in suspension, suggesting that ASV can be used to accurately measure the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs of this primary particle size.

Using the ASV technique to directly measure dissolved zinc concentration, we examined the effects of 16 different NOM isolates on the dissolution kinetics of ZnO NPs in buffered potassium chloride solution. The observed dissolution rate constants (kobs) and dissolved zinc concentrations at equilibrium increased linearly with NOM concentration (from 0 to 40 mg-C L-1) for Suwannee River humic acid (SRHA), Suwannee River fulvic acid and Pony Lake fulvic acid. When dissolution rates were compared for the 16 NOM isolates, kobs was positively correlated with certain properties of NOM, including specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), aromatic and carbonyl carbon contents, and molecular weight. Dissolution rate constants were negatively correlated to hydrogen/carbon ratio and aliphatic carbon content. The observed correlations indicate that aromatic carbon content is a key factor in determining the rate of NOM-promoted dissolution of ZnO NPs. NOM isolates with higher SUVA were also more effective at enhancing the colloidal stability of the NPs; however, the NOM-promoted dissolution was likely due to enhanced interactions between surface metal ions and NOM rather than smaller aggregate size.

Based on the above results, we designed experiments to quantitatively link the dissolution kinetics and bioavailability of CuO NPs to Gulf killifish embryos under the influence of NOM. The CuO NPs dissolved to varying degrees and at different rates in diluted 5‰ artificial seawater buffered to different pH (6.3-7.5), with or without selected NOM isolates at various concentrations (0.1-10 mg-C L-1). NOM isolates with higher SUVA and aromatic carbon content (such as SRHA) were more effective at promoting the dissolution of CuO NPs, as with ZnO NPs, especially at higher NOM concentrations. On the other hand, the presence of NOM decreased the bioavailability of dissolved Cu ions, with the uptake rate constant negatively correlated to dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) multiplied by SUVA, a combined parameter indicative of aromatic carbon concentration in the media. When the embryos were exposed to CuO NP suspension, changes in their Cu content were due to the uptake of both dissolved Cu ions and nanoparticulate CuO. The uptake rate constant of nanoparticulate CuO was also negatively correlated to [DOC]×SUVA, in a fashion roughly proportional to changes in dissolved Cu uptake rate constant. Thus, the ratio of uptake rate constants from dissolved Cu and nanoparticulate CuO (ranging from 12 to 22, on average 17±4) were insensitive to NOM type or concentration. Instead, the relative contributions of these two Cu forms were largely determined by the percentage of CuO NP that was dissolved.

Overall, this dissertation elucidated the important role that dissolved NOM plays in affecting the environmental fate and bioavailability of soluble metal-based nanomaterials. This dissertation work identified aromatic carbon content and its indicator SUVA as key NOM properties that influence the dissolution, aggregation and biouptake kinetics of metal oxide NPs and highlighted dissolution rate as a useful functional assay for assessing the relative contributions of dissolved and nanoparticulate forms to metal bioavailability. Findings of this dissertation work will be helpful for predicting the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials.

Exploring Mechanisms of Bacterial Adaptation to Seasonal Temperature Change

This research examines three potential mechanisms by which bacteria can adapt to different temperatures: changes in strain-level population structure, gene regulation and particle colonization. For the first two mechanisms, I utilize bacterial strains from the Vibrionaceae family due to their ease of culturability, ubiquity in coastal environments and status as a model system for marine bacteria. I first examine vibrio seasonal dynamics in temperate, coastal water and compare the thermal performance of strains that occupy different thermal environments. Our results suggest that there are tradeoffs in adaptation to specific temperatures and that thermal specialization can occur at a very fine phylogenetic scale. The observed thermal specialization over relatively short evolutionary time-scales indicates that few genes or cellular processes may limit expansion to a different thermal niche. I then compare the genomic and transcriptional changes associated with thermal adaptation in closely-related vibrio strains under heat and cold stress. The two vibrio strains have very similar genomes and overall exhibit similar transcriptional profiles in response to temperature stress but their temperature preferences are determined by differential transcriptional responses in shared genes as well as temperature-dependent regulation of unique genes. Finally, I investigate the temporal dynamics of particle-attached and free-living bacterial community in coastal seawater and find that microhabitats exert a stronger forcing on microbial communities than environmental variability, suggesting that particle-attachment could buffer the impacts of environmental changes and particle-associated communities likely respond to the presence of distinct eukaryotes rather than commonly-measured environmental parameters. Integrating these results will offer new perspectives on the mechanisms by which bacteria respond to seasonal temperature changes as well as potential adaptations to climate change-driven warming of the surface oceans.

On Provable Algorithms for Determination of Continuous Protein Interdomain Motions from Residual Dipolar Couplings

Dynamics of biomolecules over various spatial and time scales are essential for biological functions such as molecular recognition, catalysis and signaling. However, reconstruction of biomolecular dynamics from experimental observables requires the determination of a conformational probability distribution. Unfortunately, these distributions cannot be fully constrained by the limited information from experiments, making the problem an ill-posed one in the terminology of Hadamard. The ill-posed nature of the problem comes from the fact that it has no unique solution. Multiple or even an infinite number of solutions may exist. To avoid the ill-posed nature, the problem needs to be regularized by making assumptions, which inevitably introduce biases into the result.

Here, I present two continuous probability density function approaches to solve an important inverse problem called the RDC trigonometric moment problem. By focusing on interdomain orientations we reduced the problem to determination of a distribution on the 3D rotational space from residual dipolar couplings (RDCs). We derived an analytical equation that relates alignment tensors of adjacent domains, which serves as the foundation of the two methods. In the first approach, the ill-posed nature of the problem was avoided by introducing a continuous distribution model, which enjoys a smoothness assumption. To find the optimal solution for the distribution, we also designed an efficient branch-and-bound algorithm that exploits the mathematical structure of the analytical solutions. The algorithm is guaranteed to find the distribution that best satisfies the analytical relationship. We observed good performance of the method when tested under various levels of experimental noise and when applied to two protein systems. The second approach avoids the use of any model by employing maximum entropy principles. This 'model-free' approach delivers the least biased result which presents our state of knowledge. In this approach, the solution is an exponential function of Lagrange multipliers. To determine the multipliers, a convex objective function is constructed. Consequently, the maximum entropy solution can be found easily by gradient descent methods. Both algorithms can be applied to biomolecular RDC data in general, including data from RNA and DNA molecules.

A New Method for Modeling Free Surface Flows and Fluid-structure Interaction with Ocean Applications

The computational modeling of ocean waves and ocean-faring devices poses numerous challenges. Among these are the need to stably and accurately represent both the fluid-fluid interface between water and air as well as the fluid-structure interfaces arising between solid devices and one or more fluids. As techniques are developed to stably and accurately balance the interactions between fluid and structural solvers at these boundaries, a similarly pressing challenge is the development of algorithms that are massively scalable and capable of performing large-scale three-dimensional simulations on reasonable time scales. This dissertation introduces two separate methods for approaching this problem, with the first focusing on the development of sophisticated fluid-fluid interface representations and the second focusing primarily on scalability and extensibility to higher-order methods.

We begin by introducing the narrow-band gradient-augmented level set method (GALSM) for incompressible multiphase Navier-Stokes flow. This is the first use of the high-order GALSM for a fluid flow application, and its reliability and accuracy in modeling ocean environments is tested extensively. The method demonstrates numerous advantages over the traditional level set method, among these a heightened conservation of fluid volume and the representation of subgrid structures.

Next, we present a finite-volume algorithm for solving the incompressible Euler equations in two and three dimensions in the presence of a flow-driven free surface and a dynamic rigid body. In this development, the chief concerns are efficiency, scalability, and extensibility (to higher-order and truly conservative methods). These priorities informed a number of important choices: The air phase is substituted by a pressure boundary condition in order to greatly reduce the size of the computational domain, a cut-cell finite-volume approach is chosen in order to minimize fluid volume loss and open the door to higher-order methods, and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is employed to focus computational effort and make large-scale 3D simulations possible. This algorithm is shown to produce robust and accurate results that are well-suited for the study of ocean waves and the development of wave energy conversion (WEC) devices.

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.