Guideline-based decision support has a small, non-sustained effect on transthoracic echocardiography ordering frequency.

BACKGROUND: Guidance for appropriate utilisation of transthoracic echocardiograms (TTEs) can be incorporated into ordering prompts, potentially affecting the number of requests. METHODS: We incorporated data from the 2011 Appropriate Use Criteria for Echocardiography, the 2010 National Institute for Clinical Excellence Guideline on Chronic Heart Failure, and American College of Cardiology Choosing Wisely list on TTE use for dyspnoea, oedema and valvular disease into electronic ordering systems at Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Our primary outcome was TTE orders per month. Secondary outcomes included rates of outpatient TTE ordering per 100 visits and frequency of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) ordering prior to TTE. Outcomes were measured for 20 months before and 12 months after the intervention. RESULTS: The number of TTEs ordered did not decrease (338±32 TTEs/month prior vs 320±33 afterwards, p=0.12). Rates of outpatient TTE ordering decreased minimally post intervention (2.28 per 100 primary care/cardiology visits prior vs 1.99 afterwards, p<0.01). Effects on TTE ordering and ordering rate significantly interacted with time from intervention (p<0.02 for both), as the small initial effects waned after 6 months. The percentage of TTE orders with preceding BNP increased (36.5% prior vs 42.2% after for inpatients, p=0.01; 10.8% prior vs 14.5% after for outpatients, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Ordering prompts for TTEs initially minimally reduced the number of TTEs ordered and increased BNP measurement at a single institution, but the effect on TTEs ordered was likely insignificant from a utilisation standpoint and decayed over time.

Physical Insights, Steady Aerodynamic Effects, and a Design Tool for Low-Pressure Turbine Flutter

The successful, efficient, and safe turbine design requires a thorough understanding of the underlying physical phenomena. This research investigates the physical understanding and parameters highly correlated to flutter, an aeroelastic instability prevalent among low pressure turbine (LPT) blades in both aircraft engines and power turbines. The modern way of determining whether a certain cascade of LPT blades is susceptible to flutter is through time-expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes. These codes converge to solution satisfying the Eulerian conservation equations subject to the boundary conditions of a nodal domain consisting fluid and solid wall particles. Most detailed CFD codes are accompanied by cryptic turbulence models, meticulous grid constructions, and elegant boundary condition enforcements all with one goal in mind: determine the sign (and therefore stability) of the aerodynamic damping. The main question being asked by the aeroelastician, ``is it positive or negative?'' This type of thought-process eventually gives rise to a black-box effect, leaving physical understanding behind. Therefore, the first part of this research aims to understand and reveal the physics behind LPT flutter in addition to several related topics including acoustic resonance effects. A percentage of this initial numerical investigation is completed using an influence coefficient approach to study the variation the work-per-cycle contributions of neighboring cascade blades to a reference airfoil. The second part of this research introduces new discoveries regarding the relationship between steady aerodynamic loading and negative aerodynamic damping. Using validated CFD codes as computational wind tunnels, a multitude of low-pressure turbine flutter parameters, such as reduced frequency, mode shape, and interblade phase angle, will be scrutinized across various airfoil geometries and steady operating conditions to reach new design guidelines regarding the influence of steady aerodynamic loading and LPT flutter. Many pressing topics influencing LPT flutter including shocks, their nonlinearity, and three-dimensionality are also addressed along the way. The work is concluded by introducing a useful preliminary design tool that can estimate within seconds the entire aerodynamic damping versus nodal diameter curve for a given three-dimensional cascade.

Three Essays on the Effects of Donor Supplied Contraceptives on Fertility, Usage, and Attitudes

After the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, there have been major strides in advancing the family planning agenda for low and middle-income countries worldwide. Much of the existing infrastructure and funding for family planning access is in the form of supplying free contraceptives to countries. While the average yearly value of donations since 2000 was over 170 million dollars for contraceptives procured for developing countries, an ongoing debate in the empirical literature is whether increases in contraceptive access and supply drive declines in fertility (UNFPA 2014).

This dissertation explores the fertility and behavioral effects of an increase in contraceptive supply donated to Zambia. Zambia, a high-fertility developing country, receives over 80 percent of its contraceptives from multilateral donors and aid agencies. Most contraceptives are donated and provided to women for free at government clinics (DELIVER 2015). I chose Zambia as a case study to measure the relationship between contraceptive supply and fertility because of two donor-driven events that led to an increase in both the quantity and frequency of contraceptives starting in 2008 (UNFPA 2014). Donations increased because donors and the Zambian government started a systematic method of forecasting contraceptive need on December 2007, and the Mexico City Policy was lifted in January 2009.

In Chapter 1, I investigate whether a large change in quantity and frequency of donated contraceptives affected fertility, using available data on contraceptive donations to Zambia, and birth records from the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys. I use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate the fertility effects of a supply chain improvement program that started in 2011, and was designed to ensure more regularity of contraceptive supply. The increase in total contraceptive supply after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded is associated with a 12 percent reduction in fertility relative to the before period, after controlling for demographic characteristics and time controls. There is evidence that a supply chain improvement program led to significant fertility declines for regions that received the program after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded.

In Chapter 2, I explore the effects of the large increase in donated contraceptives on modern contraceptive uptake. According to the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys, there was a dramatic increase in current use of injectables, implants, and IUDs. Simultaneously, declines occurred in usage of condoms, lactational amenorrhea method (LAM), and traditional methods. In this chapter, I estimate the effect of the increase in donations on uptake, composition of contraceptive usage, and usage of methods based on distance to contraceptive access points. The results show the post-2007 period is associated with an increase in usage of injectables and the pill among women living further away from access points.

In Chapter 3, I explore attitudes towards the contraceptive supply system, and identify areas for improvement, based on qualitative interviews with 14 experts and 61 Zambian users and non-users of contraceptives. The interviews uncover systemic barriers that prevent women from consistently accessing methods, and individual barriers that exacerbate the deficiencies in supply chain procedures. I find that 39 out of 61 women interviewed, both users and non-users, had personal experiences with stock out. The qualitative results suggest that the increase in contraceptives brought to the country after 2007 may have not contributed to as large of a decline in fertility because of bottlenecks in the supply chain, and problems in maintaining stock levels at clinics. I end the chapter with a series of four recommendations for improvements in the supply chain going forward, in light of recent commitments by the Zambian government during the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning.

Quantitative Analysis of Kilohertz-Frequency Neurostimulation

Mainstream electrical stimulation therapies, e.g., spinal cord stimulation (SCS) and deep brain stimulation, use pulse trains that are delivered at rates no higher than 200 Hz. In recent years, stimulation of nerve fibers using kilohertz-frequency (KHF) signals has received increased attention due to the potential to penetrate deeper in the tissue and to the ability to block conduction of action potentials. As well, there are a growing number of clinical applications that use KHF waveforms, including transcutaneous electrical stimulation (TES) for overactive bladder and SCS for chronic pain. However, there is a lack of fundamental understanding of the mechanisms of action of KHF stimulation. The goal of this research was to analyze quantitatively KHF neurostimulation.

We implemented a multilayer volume conductor model of TES including dispersion and capacitive effects, and we validated the model with in vitro measurements in a phantom constructed from dispersive materials. We quantified the effects of frequency on the distribution of potentials and fiber excitation. We also quantified the effects of a novel transdermal amplitude modulated signal (TAMS) consisting of a non-zero offset sinusoidal carrier modulated by a square-pulse train. The model revealed that high-frequency signals generated larger potentials at depth than did low frequencies, but this did not translate into lower stimulation thresholds. Both TAMS and conventional rectangular pulses activated more superficial fibers in addition to the deeper, target fibers, and at no frequency did we observe an inversion of the strength-distance relationship. In addition, we performed in vivo experiments and applied direct stimulation to the sciatic nerve of cats and rats. We measured electromyogram and compound action potential activity evoked by pulses, TAMS and modified versions of TAMS in which we varied the amplitude of the carrier. Nerve fiber activation using TAMS showed no difference with respect to activation with conventional pulse for carrier frequencies of 20 kHz and higher, regardless the size of the carrier. Therefore, TAMS with carrier frequencies >20 kHz does not offer any advantage over conventional pulses, even with larger amplitudes of the carrier, and this has implications for design of waveforms for efficient and effective TES.

We developed a double cable model of a dorsal column (DC) fiber to quantify the responses of DC fibers to a novel KHF-SCS signal. We validated the model using in vivo recordings of the strength-duration relationship and the recovery cycle of single DC fibers. We coupled the fiber model to a model of SCS in human and applied the KHF-SCS signal to quantify thresholds for activation and conduction block for different fiber diameters at different locations in the DCs. Activation and block thresholds increased sharply as the fibers were placed deeper in the DCs, and decreased for larger diameter fibers. Activation thresholds were > 5 mA in all cases and up to five times higher than for conventional (~ 50 Hz) SCS. For fibers exhibiting persistent activation, the degree of synchronization of the firing activity to the KHF-SCS signal, as quantified using the vector strength, was low for a broad amplitude range, and the dissimilarity between the activities in pairs of fibers, as quantified using the spike time distance, was high and decreased for more closely positioned fibers. Conduction block thresholds were higher than 30 mA for all fiber diameters at any depth and well above the amplitudes used clinically (0.5 – 5 mA). KHF-SCS appears to activate few, large, superficial fibers, and the activated fibers fire asynchronously to the stimulation signal and to other activated fibers.

The outcomes of this work contribute to the understanding of KHF neurostimulation by establishing the importance of the tissue filtering properties on the distribution of potentials, assessing quantitatively the impact of KHF stimulation on nerve fiber excitation, and developing and validating a detailed model of a DC fiber to characterize the effects of KHF stimulation on DC axons. The results have implications for design of waveforms for efficient and effective nerve fiber stimulation in the peripheral and central nervous system.