Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment Modeling Approaches for Transboundary Energy Feedstocks

The rise of the twenty-first century has seen the further increase in the industrialization of Earth’s resources, as society aims to meet the needs of a growing population while still protecting our environmental and natural resources. The advent of the industrial bioeconomy – which encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, and bio-based products – is seen as an important step in transition towards sustainable development and away from fossil fuels. One sector of the industrial bioeconomy which is rapidly being expanded is the use of biobased feedstocks in electricity production as an alternative to coal, especially in the European Union.

As bioeconomy policies and objectives increasingly appear on political agendas, there is a growing need to quantify the impacts of transitioning from fossil fuel-based feedstocks to renewable biological feedstocks. Specifically, there is a growing need to conduct a systems analysis and potential risks of increasing the industrial bioeconomy, given that the flows within it are inextricably linked. Furthermore, greater analysis is needed into the consequences of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable feedstocks, in part through the use of life cycle assessment modeling to analyze impacts along the entire value chain.

To assess the emerging nature of the industrial bioeconomy, three objectives are addressed: (1) quantify the global industrial bioeconomy, linking the use of primary resources with the ultimate end product; (2) quantify the impacts of the expaning wood pellet energy export market of the Southeastern United States; (3) conduct a comparative life cycle assessment, incorporating the use of dynamic life cycle assessment, of replacing coal-fired electricity generation in the United Kingdom with wood pellets that are produced in the Southeastern United States.

To quantify the emergent industrial bioeconomy, an empirical analysis was undertaken. Existing databases from multiple domestic and international agencies was aggregated and analyzed in Microsoft Excel to produce a harmonized dataset of the bioeconomy. First-person interviews, existing academic literature, and industry reports were then utilized to delineate the various intermediate and end use flows within the bioeconomy. The results indicate that within a decade, the industrial use of agriculture has risen ten percent, given increases in the production of bioenergy and bioproducts. The underlying resources supporting the emergent bioeconomy (i.e., land, water, and fertilizer use) were also quantified and included in the database.

Following the quantification of the existing bioeconomy, an in-depth analysis of the bioenergy sector was conducted. Specifically, the focus was on quantifying the impacts of the emergent wood pellet export sector that has rapidly developed in recent years in the Southeastern United States. A cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment was conducted in order to quantify supply chain impacts from two wood pellet production scenarios: roundwood and sawmill residues. For reach of the nine impact categories assessed, wood pellet production from sawmill residues resulted in higher values, ranging from 10-31% higher.

The analysis of the wood pellet sector was then expanded to include the full life cycle (i.e., cradle-to-grave). In doing to, the combustion of biogenic carbon and the subsequent timing of emissions were assessed by incorporating dynamic life cycle assessment modeling. Assuming immediate carbon neutrality of the biomass, the results indicated an 86% reduction in global warming potential when utilizing wood pellets as compared to coal for electricity production in the United Kingdom. When incorporating the timing of emissions, wood pellets equated to a 75% or 96% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, depending upon whether the forestry feedstock was considered to be harvested or planted in year one, respectively.

Finally, a policy analysis of renewable energy in the United States was conducted. Existing coal-fired power plants in the Southeastern United States were assessed in terms of incorporating the co-firing of wood pellets. Co-firing wood pellets with coal in existing Southeastern United States power stations would result in a nine percent reduction in global warming potential.

Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Decision-Making in the Primate Brain

Making decisions is fundamental to everything we do, yet it can be impaired in various disorders and conditions. While research into the neural basis of decision-making has flourished in recent years, many questions remain about how decisions are instantiated in the brain. Here we explored how primates make abstract decisions and decisions in social contexts, as well as one way to non-invasively modulate the brain circuits underlying decision-making. We used rhesus macaques as our model organism. First we probed numerical decision-making, a form of abstract decision-making. We demonstrated that monkeys are able to compare discrete ratios, choosing an array with a greater ratio of positive to negative stimuli, even when this array does not have a greater absolute number of positive stimuli. Monkeys’ performance in this task adhered to Weber’s law, indicating that monkeys—like humans—treat proportions as analog magnitudes. Next we showed that monkeys’ ordinal decisions are influenced by spatial associations; when trained to select the fourth stimulus from the bottom in a vertical array, they subsequently selected the fourth stimulus from the left—and not from the right—in a horizontal array. In other words, they begin enumerating from one side of space and not the other, mirroring the human tendency to associate numbers with space. These and other studies confirmed that monkeys’ numerical decision-making follows similar patterns to that of humans, making them a good model for investigations of the neurobiological basis of numerical decision-making.

We sought to develop a system for exploring the neuronal basis of the cognitive and behavioral effects observed following transcranial magnetic stimulation, a relatively new, non-invasive method of brain stimulation that may be used to treat clinical disorders. We completed a set of pilot studies applying offline low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation to the macaque posterior parietal cortex, which has been implicated in numerical processing, while subjects performed a numerical comparison and control color comparison task, and while electrophysiological activity was recorded from the stimulated region of cortex. We found tentative evidence in one paradigm that stimulation did selectively impair performance in the number task, causally implicating the posterior parietal cortex in numerical decisions. In another paradigm, however, we manipulated the subject’s reaching behavior but not her number or color comparison performance. We also found that stimulation produced variable changes in neuronal firing and local field potentials. Together these findings lay the groundwork for detailed investigations into how different parameters of transcranial magnetic stimulation can interact with cortical architecture to produce various cognitive and behavioral changes.

Finally, we explored how monkeys decide how to behave in competitive social interactions. In a zero-sum computer game in which two monkeys played as a shooter or a goalie during a hockey-like “penalty shot” scenario, we found that shooters developed complex movement trajectories so as to conceal their intentions from the goalies. Additionally, we found that neurons in the dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex played a role in generating this “deceptive” behavior. We conclude that these regions of prefrontal cortex form part of a circuit that guides decisions to make an individual less predictable to an opponent.

Quantitative Analysis of Kilohertz-Frequency Neurostimulation

Mainstream electrical stimulation therapies, e.g., spinal cord stimulation (SCS) and deep brain stimulation, use pulse trains that are delivered at rates no higher than 200 Hz. In recent years, stimulation of nerve fibers using kilohertz-frequency (KHF) signals has received increased attention due to the potential to penetrate deeper in the tissue and to the ability to block conduction of action potentials. As well, there are a growing number of clinical applications that use KHF waveforms, including transcutaneous electrical stimulation (TES) for overactive bladder and SCS for chronic pain. However, there is a lack of fundamental understanding of the mechanisms of action of KHF stimulation. The goal of this research was to analyze quantitatively KHF neurostimulation.

We implemented a multilayer volume conductor model of TES including dispersion and capacitive effects, and we validated the model with in vitro measurements in a phantom constructed from dispersive materials. We quantified the effects of frequency on the distribution of potentials and fiber excitation. We also quantified the effects of a novel transdermal amplitude modulated signal (TAMS) consisting of a non-zero offset sinusoidal carrier modulated by a square-pulse train. The model revealed that high-frequency signals generated larger potentials at depth than did low frequencies, but this did not translate into lower stimulation thresholds. Both TAMS and conventional rectangular pulses activated more superficial fibers in addition to the deeper, target fibers, and at no frequency did we observe an inversion of the strength-distance relationship. In addition, we performed in vivo experiments and applied direct stimulation to the sciatic nerve of cats and rats. We measured electromyogram and compound action potential activity evoked by pulses, TAMS and modified versions of TAMS in which we varied the amplitude of the carrier. Nerve fiber activation using TAMS showed no difference with respect to activation with conventional pulse for carrier frequencies of 20 kHz and higher, regardless the size of the carrier. Therefore, TAMS with carrier frequencies >20 kHz does not offer any advantage over conventional pulses, even with larger amplitudes of the carrier, and this has implications for design of waveforms for efficient and effective TES.

We developed a double cable model of a dorsal column (DC) fiber to quantify the responses of DC fibers to a novel KHF-SCS signal. We validated the model using in vivo recordings of the strength-duration relationship and the recovery cycle of single DC fibers. We coupled the fiber model to a model of SCS in human and applied the KHF-SCS signal to quantify thresholds for activation and conduction block for different fiber diameters at different locations in the DCs. Activation and block thresholds increased sharply as the fibers were placed deeper in the DCs, and decreased for larger diameter fibers. Activation thresholds were > 5 mA in all cases and up to five times higher than for conventional (~ 50 Hz) SCS. For fibers exhibiting persistent activation, the degree of synchronization of the firing activity to the KHF-SCS signal, as quantified using the vector strength, was low for a broad amplitude range, and the dissimilarity between the activities in pairs of fibers, as quantified using the spike time distance, was high and decreased for more closely positioned fibers. Conduction block thresholds were higher than 30 mA for all fiber diameters at any depth and well above the amplitudes used clinically (0.5 – 5 mA). KHF-SCS appears to activate few, large, superficial fibers, and the activated fibers fire asynchronously to the stimulation signal and to other activated fibers.

The outcomes of this work contribute to the understanding of KHF neurostimulation by establishing the importance of the tissue filtering properties on the distribution of potentials, assessing quantitatively the impact of KHF stimulation on nerve fiber excitation, and developing and validating a detailed model of a DC fiber to characterize the effects of KHF stimulation on DC axons. The results have implications for design of waveforms for efficient and effective nerve fiber stimulation in the peripheral and central nervous system.