An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the next day, on the same day, or neither. Discharge predictions were recorded at 3 time points: mornings (7-9 am), midday (12-2 pm), or afternoons (5-7 pm), for a total of 2641 predictions. For predictions of next-day discharge, the sensitivity (SN) and positive predictive value (PPV) were lowest in the morning (27% and 33%, respectively), but increased by the afternoon (SN 67%, PPV 69%). Similarly, for same-day discharge predictions, SN and PPV were highest at midday (88% and 79%, respectively). We found that although physicians have difficulty predicting next-day discharges in the morning prior to the day of expected discharge, their ability to correctly predict discharges continually improved as the time to actual discharge decreased. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;10:808-810. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in Neurosurgical Patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital

Background:

Knowing the scope of neurosurgical disease at Mbarara Hospital is critical for infrastructure planning, education and training. In this study, we aim to evaluate the neurosurgical outcomes and identify predictors of mortality in order to potentiate platforms for more effective interventions and inform future research efforts at Mbarara Hospital.

Methods:

This is retrospective chart review including patients of all ages with a neurosurgical disease or injury presenting to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) between January 2012 to September 2015. Descriptive statistics were presented. A univariate analysis was used to obtain the odds ratios of mortality and 95% confidence intervals. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate logistic regression model.

Results:

A total of 1876 charts were reviewed. Of these, 1854 (had complete data and were?) were included in the analysis. The overall mortality rate was 12.75%; the mortality rates among all persons who underwent a neurosurgical procedure was 9.72%, and was 13.68% among those who did not undergo a neurosurgical procedure. Over 50% of patients were between 19 and 40 years old and the majority of were males (76.10%). The overall median length of stay was 5 days. Of all neurosurgical admissions, 87% were trauma patients. In comparison to mild head injury, closed head injury and intracranial hematoma patients were 5 (95% CI: 3.77, 8.26) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.64,3.98) more likely to die respectively. Procedure and diagnostic imaging were independent negative predictors of mortality (P <0.05). While age, ICU admission, admission GCS were positive predictors of mortality (P <0.05).

Conclusions:

The majority of hospital admissions were TBI patients, with RTIs being the most common mechanism of injury. Age, ICU admission, admission GCS, diagnostic imaging and undergoing surgery were independent predictors of mortality. Going forward, further exploration of patient characteristics is necessary to fully describe mortality outcomes and implement resource appropriate interventions that ultimately improve morbidity and mortality.

Role of patient factors, preferences, and distrust in health care and access to liver transplantation and organ donation.

Despite major improvements in access to liver transplantation (LT), disparities remain. Little is known about how distrust in medical care, patient preferences, and the origins shaping those preferences contribute to differences surrounding access. We performed a single-center, cross-sectional survey of adults with end-stage liver disease and compared responses between LT listed and nonlisted patients as well as by race. Questionnaires were administered to 109 patients (72 nonlisted; 37 listed) to assess demographics, health care system distrust (HCSD), religiosity, and factors influencing LT and organ donation (OD). We found that neither HCSD nor religiosity explained differences in access to LT in our population. Listed patients attained higher education levels and were more likely to be insured privately. This was also the case for white versus black patients. All patients reported wanting LT if recommended. However, nonlisted patients were significantly less likely to have discussed LT with their physician or to be referred to a transplant center. They were also much less likely to understand the process of LT. Fewer blacks were referred (44.4% versus 69.7%; P = 0.03) or went to the transplant center if referred (44.4% versus 71.1%; P = 0.02). Fewer black patients felt that minorities had as equal access to LT as whites (29.6% versus 57.3%; P < 0.001). For OD, there were more significant differences in preferences by race than listing status. More whites indicated OD status on their driver's license, and more blacks were likely to become an organ donor if approached by someone of the same cultural or ethnic background (P < 0.01). In conclusion, our analysis demonstrates persistent barriers to LT and OD. With improved patient and provider education and communication, many of these disparities could be successfully overcome. Liver Transplantation 22 895-905 2016 AASLD.