Intake, digestibility, and passage of a commercially designed diet by two Propithecus species.

The digestibility and passage of an experimental diet was used to compare the digestive physiology of two Propithecus species: P. verreauxi and P. tattersalli. Though both animals have a similar feeding ecology, the captive status of P. verreauxi is considered more stable than that of P. tattersalli. The test diet included a local tree species, Rhus copallina, at 15% of dry matter intake (DMI) and Mazuri Leafeater Primate Diet at 85% of DMI. The chemical composition of the diet (dry matter basis) was 25% crude protein, 34% neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and 22% acid detergent fiber (ADF) with a gross energy of 4.52 kcal/g. After a 6 week acclimation to the experimental diet, animals were placed in research caging. After a 7 day adjustment period, animals were dosed with chromium mordant and Co-EDTA as markers for digesta passage and all feed refusals and feces were collected at timed intervals for 7 days. Digestibility values, similar for both species, were approximately 65% for dry matter, crude protein, and energy, and 40% and 35% respectively, for NDF and ADF. Transit times (17-18.5 hr) and mean retention times (31-34 hr) were not significantly different between species, and there was no difference between the chromium mordant and Co-EDTA. Serum values for glucose, urea, and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) were obtained during four different time periods to monitor nutritional status. While there was no change in serum glucose, serum urea increased over time. The NEFAs increased across all four time periods for P. verreauxi and increased for the first three periods then decreased in the last period for P. tattersalli. Results obtained indicate no difference in digestibility nor digesta passage between species, and that both Propithecus species were similar to other post-gastric folivores.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Typical delay determines waiting time on periodic-food schedules: Static and dynamic tests.

Pigeons and other animals soon learn to wait (pause) after food delivery on periodic-food schedules before resuming the food-rewarded response. Under most conditions the steady-state duration of the average waiting time, t, is a linear function of the typical interfood interval. We describe three experiments designed to explore the limits of this process. In all experiments, t was associated with one key color and the subsequent food delay, T, with another. In the first experiment, we compared the relation between t (waiting time) and T (food delay) under two conditions: when T was held constant, and when T was an inverse function of t. The pigeons could maximize the rate of food delivery under the first condition by setting t to a consistently short value; optimal behavior under the second condition required a linear relation with unit slope between t and T. Despite this difference in optimal policy, the pigeons in both cases showed the same linear relation, with slope less than one, between t and T. This result was confirmed in a second parametric experiment that added a third condition, in which T + t was held constant. Linear waiting appears to be an obligatory rule for pigeons. In a third experiment we arranged for a multiplicative relation between t and T (positive feedback), and produced either very short or very long waiting times as predicted by a quasi-dynamic model in which waiting time is strongly determined by the just-preceding food delay.

Bound on quantum computation time: Quantum error correction in a critical environment

We obtain an upper bound on the time available for quantum computation for a given quantum computer and decohering environment with quantum error correction implemented. First, we derive an explicit quantum evolution operator for the logical qubits and show that it has the same form as that for the physical qubits but with a reduced coupling strength to the environment. Using this evolution operator, we find the trace distance between the real and ideal states of the logical qubits in two cases. For a super-Ohmic bath, the trace distance saturates, while for Ohmic or sub-Ohmic baths, there is a finite time before the trace distance exceeds a value set by the user. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Jamming for a 2D granular material

This paper focuses on the nature of jamming, as seen in two-dimensional frictional granular systems consisting of photoelastic particles. The photoelastic technique is unique at this time, in its capability to provide detailed particle-scale information on forces and kinematic quantities such as particle displacements and rotations. These experiments first explore isotropic stress states near point J through measurements of the mean contact number per particle, Z, and the pressure, P as functions of the packing fraction, . In this case, the experiments show some but not all aspects of jamming, as expected on the basis of simulations and models that typically assume conservative, hence frictionless, forces between particles. Specifically, there is a rapid growth in Z, at a reasonable which we identify with as c. It is possible to fit Z and P, to power law expressions in - c above c, and to obtain exponents that are in agreement with simulations and models. However, the experiments differ from theory on several points, as typified by the rounding that is observed in Z and P near c. The application of shear to these same 2D granular systems leads to phenomena that are qualitatively different from the standard picture of jamming. In particular, there is a range of packing fractions below c, where the application of shear strain at constant leads to jammed stress-anisotropic states, i.e. they have a non-zero shear stress, τ. The application of shear strain to an initially isotropically compressed (hence jammed) state, does not lead to an unjammed state per se. Rather, shear strain at constant first leads to an increase of both τ and P. Additional strain leads to a succession of jammed states interspersed with relatively localized failures of the force network leading to other stress-anisotropic states that are jammed at typically somewhat lower stress. The locus of jammed states requires a state space that involves not only and τ, but also P. P, τ, and Z are all hysteretic functions of shear strain for fixed . However, we find that both P and τ are roughly linear functions of Z for strains large enough to jam the system. This implies that these shear-jammed states satisfy a Coulomb like-relation, τ = μP. © 2010 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Improving supply chain performance: Real-time demand information and flexible deliveries

In some supply chains, materials are ordered periodically according to local information. This paper investigates how to improve the performance of such a supply chain. Specifically, we consider a serial inventory system in which each stage implements a local reorder interval policy; i.e., each stage orders up to a local basestock level according to a fixed-interval schedule. A fixed cost is incurred for placing an order. Two improvement strategies are considered: (1) expanding the information flow by acquiring real-time demand information and (2) accelerating the material flow via flexible deliveries. The first strategy leads to a reorder interval policy with full information; the second strategy leads to a reorder point policy with local information. Both policies have been studied in the literature. Thus, to assess the benefit of these strategies, we analyze the local reorder interval policy. We develop a bottom-up recursion to evaluate the system cost and provide a method to obtain the optimal policy. A numerical study shows the following: Increasing the flexibility of deliveries lowers costs more than does expanding information flow; the fixed order costs and the system lead times are key drivers that determine the effectiveness of these improvement strategies. In addition, we find that using optimal batch sizes in the reorder point policy and demand rate to infer reorder intervals may lead to significant cost inefficiency. © 2010 INFORMS.

No-Holdback allocation rules for continuous-time assemble-to-order systems

This paper analyzes a class of common-component allocation rules, termed no-holdback (NHB) rules, in continuous-review assemble-to-order (ATO) systems with positive lead times. The inventory of each component is replenished following an independent base-stock policy. In contrast to the usually assumed first-come-first-served (FCFS) component allocation rule in the literature, an NHB rule allocates a component to a product demand only if it will yield immediate fulfillment of that demand. We identify metrics as well as cost and product structures under which NHB rules outperform all other component allocation rules. For systems with certain product structures, we obtain key performance expressions and compare them to those under FCFS. For general product structures, we present performance bounds and approximations. Finally, we discuss the applicability of these results to more general ATO systems. © 2010 INFORMS.

The impact of structured support groups for pregnant South African women recently diagnosed HIV positive.

The authors of this study evaluated a structured 10-session psychosocial support group intervention for newly HIV-diagnosed pregnant South African women. Participants were expected to display increases in HIV disclosure, self-esteem, active coping and positive social support, and decreases in depression, avoidant coping, and negative social support. Three hundred sixty-one pregnant HIV-infected women were recruited from four antenatal clinics in Tshwane townships from April 2005 to September 2006. Using a quasi-experimental design, assessments were conducted at baseline and two and eight months post-intervention. A series of random effects regression analyses were conducted, with the three assessment points treated as a random effect of time. At both follow-ups, the rate of disclosure in the intervention group was significantly higher than that of the comparison group (p<0.001). Compared to the comparison group at the first follow-up, the intervention group displayed higher levels of active coping (t=2.68, p<0.05) and lower levels of avoidant coping (t=-2.02, p<0.05), and those who attended at least half of the intervention sessions exhibited improved self-esteem (t=2.11, p<0.05). Group interventions tailored for newly HIV positive pregnant women, implemented in resource-limited settings, may accelerate the process of adjusting to one's HIV status, but may not have sustainable benefits over time.

Effects of priming duration on retention over the first 1 1/2 years of life.

Exposing individuals to an isolated component (a prime) of a prior event alleviates its forgetting. Two experiments with 120 human infants between 3 and 18 months of age determined the minimum duration of a prime that can reactivate a forgotten memory and how long the reactivated memory persists. Infants learned an operant task, forgot it, were exposed to the prime, and later were tested for renewed retention. In Experiment 1, the minimum duration of an effective prime decreased logarithmically with age, but was always longer than the duration of a mere glance. In Experiment 2, the reactivated memory was forgotten twice as fast after a minimum-duration prime as after a full-length one, irrespective of priming delay and infant age. These data reveal that the minimum effective prime duration psychophysically equates the accessibility of forgotten memories. We conclude that priming is perceptually based with effects that are organized on a ratio (log) scale.

The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.

Patterns in blood pressure medication use in US incident dialysis patients over the first 6 months.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies have evaluated the effect of a single exposure window with blood pressure (BP) medications on outcomes in incident dialysis patients, but whether BP medication prescription patterns remain stable or a single exposure window design is adequate to evaluate effect on outcomes is unclear. METHODS: We described patterns of BP medication prescription over 6 months after dialysis initiation in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients, stratified by cardiovascular comorbidity, diabetes, and other patient characteristics. The cohort included 13,072 adult patients (12,159 hemodialysis, 913 peritoneal dialysis) who initiated dialysis in Dialysis Clinic, Inc., facilities January 1, 2003-June 30, 2008, and remained on the original modality for at least 6 months. We evaluated monthly patterns in BP medication prescription over 6 months and at 12 and 24 months after initiation. RESULTS: Prescription patterns varied by dialysis modality over the first 6 months; substantial proportions of patients with prescriptions for beta-blockers, renin angiotensin system agents, and dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers in month 6 no longer had prescriptions for these medications by month 24. Prescription of specific medication classes varied by comorbidity, race/ethnicity, and age, but little by sex. The mean number of medications was 2.5 at month 6 in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study evaluates BP medication patterns in both hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients over the first 6 months of dialysis. Our findings highlight the challenges of assessing comparative effectiveness of a single BP medication class in dialysis patients. Longitudinal designs should be used to account for changes in BP medication management over time, and designs that incorporate common combinations should be considered.

Probabilistic Fréchet means for time varying persistence diagrams

© 2015, Institute of Mathematical Statistics. All rights reserved.In order to use persistence diagrams as a true statistical tool, it would be very useful to have a good notion of mean and variance for a set of diagrams. In [23], Mileyko and his collaborators made the first study of the properties of the Fréchet mean in (Dp, Wp), the space of persistence diagrams equipped with the p-th Wasserstein metric. In particular, they showed that the Fréchet mean of a finite set of diagrams always exists, but is not necessarily unique. The means of a continuously-varying set of diagrams do not themselves (necessarily) vary continuously, which presents obvious problems when trying to extend the Fréchet mean definition to the realm of time-varying persistence diagrams, better known as vineyards. We fix this problem by altering the original definition of Fréchet mean so that it now becomes a probability measure on the set of persistence diagrams; in a nutshell, the mean of a set of diagrams will be a weighted sum of atomic measures, where each atom is itself a persistence diagram determined using a perturbation of the input diagrams. This definition gives for each N a map (Dp)^N→ℙ(Dp). We show that this map is Hölder continuous on finite diagrams and thus can be used to build a useful statistic on vineyards.

Autobiographical Memories for Very Negative Events: The Effects of Thinking about and Rating Memories.

In three related experiments, 250 participants rated properties of their autobiographical memory of a very negative event before and after writing about either their deepest thoughts and emotions of the event or a control topic. Levels of emotional intensity of the event, distress associated with the event, intrusive symptoms, and other phenomenological memory properties decreased over the course of the experiment, but did not differ by writing condition. We argue that the act of answering our extensive questions about a very negative event led to the decrease, thereby masking the effects of expressive writing. To show that the changes could not be explained by the mere passage of time, we replicated our findings in a fourth experiment in which all 208 participants nominated a very negative event, but only half the participants rated properties of their memory in the first session. Implications for reducing the effects of negative autobiographical memories are discussed.