3 resultados para Estimation Bayésienne

em Duke University


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Empirical modeling of high-frequency currency market data reveals substantial evidence for nonnormality, stochastic volatility, and other nonlinearities. This paper investigates whether an equilibrium monetary model can account for nonlinearities in weekly data. The model incorporates time-nonseparable preferences and a transaction cost technology. Simulated sample paths are generated using Marcet's parameterized expectations procedure. The paper also develops a new method for estimation of structural economic models. The method forces the model to match (under a GMM criterion) the score function of a nonparametric estimate of the conditional density of observed data. The estimation uses weekly U.S.-German currency market data, 1975-90. © 1995.

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This paper provides a root-n consistent, asymptotically normal weighted least squares estimator of the coefficients in a truncated regression model. The distribution of the errors is unknown and permits general forms of unknown heteroskedasticity. Also provided is an instrumental variables based two-stage least squares estimator for this model, which can be used when some regressors are endogenous, mismeasured, or otherwise correlated with the errors. A simulation study indicates that the new estimators perform well in finite samples. Our limiting distribution theory includes a new asymptotic trimming result addressing the boundary bias in first-stage density estimation without knowledge of the support boundary. © 2007 Cambridge University Press.

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An analytical model was developed to describe in-canopy vertical distribution of ammonia (NH(3)) sources and sinks and vertical fluxes in a fertilized agricultural setting using measured in-canopy mean NH(3) concentration and wind speed profiles. This model was applied to quantify in-canopy air-surface exchange rates and above-canopy NH(3) fluxes in a fertilized corn (Zea mays) field. Modeled air-canopy NH(3) fluxes agreed well with independent above-canopy flux estimates. Based on the model results, the urea fertilized soil surface was a consistent source of NH(3) one month following the fertilizer application, whereas the vegetation canopy was typically a net NH(3) sink with the lower portion of the canopy being a constant sink. The model results suggested that the canopy was a sink for some 70% of the estimated soil NH(3) emissions. A logical conclusion is that parametrization of within-canopy processes in air quality models are necessary to explore the impact of agricultural field level management practices on regional air quality. Moreover, there are agronomic and environmental benefits to timing liquid fertilizer applications as close to canopy closure as possible. Finally, given the large within-canopy mean NH(3) concentration gradients in such agricultural settings, a discussion about the suitability of the proposed model is also presented.