Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

The Effects of Organic Matter Amendments and Migratory Waterfowl on Greenhouse Gas and Nutrient Dynamics in Managed Coastal Plain Wetlands

Wetland ecosystems provide many valuable ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage and improvement of water quality. Yet, restored and managed wetlands are not frequently evaluated for their capacity to function in order to deliver on these values. Specific restoration or management practices designed to meet one set of criteria may yield unrecognized biogeochemical costs or co-benefits. The goal of this dissertation is to improve scientific understanding of how wetland restoration practices and waterfowl habitat management affect critical wetland biogeochemical processes related to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient cycling. I met this goal through field and laboratory research experiments in which I tested for relationships between management factors and the biogeochemical responses of wetland soil, water, plants and trace gas emissions. Specifically, I quantified: (1) the effect of organic matter amendments on the carbon balance of a restored wetland; (2) the effectiveness of two static chamber designs in measuring methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands; (3) the impact of waterfowl herbivory on the oxygen-sensitive processes of methane emission and coupled nitrification-denitrification; and (4) nitrogen (N) exports caused by prescribed draw down of a waterfowl impoundment.

The potency of CH4 emissions from wetlands raises the concern that widespread restoration and/or creation of freshwater wetlands may present a radiative forcing hazard. Yet data on greenhouse gas emissions from restored wetlands are sparse and there has been little investigation into the greenhouse gas effects of amending wetland soils with organic matter, a recent practice used to improve function of mitigation wetlands in the Eastern United States. I measured trace gas emissions across an organic matter gradient at a restored wetland in the coastal plain of Virginia to test the hypothesis that added C substrate would increase the emission of CH4. I found soils heavily loaded with organic matter emitted significantly more carbon dioxide than those that have received little or no organic matter. CH4 emissions from the wetland were low compared to reference wetlands and contrary to my hypothesis, showed no relationship with the loading rate of added organic matter or total soil C. The addition of moderate amounts of organic matter (< 11.2 kg m-2) to the wetland did not greatly increase greenhouse gas emissions, while the addition of high amounts produced additional carbon dioxide, but not CH4.

I found that the static chambers I used for sampling CH4 in wetlands were highly sensitive to soil disturbance. Temporary compression around chambers during sampling inflated the initial chamber CH4 headspace concentration and/or lead to generation of nonlinear, unreliable flux estimates that had to be discarded. I tested an often-used rubber-gasket sealed static chamber against a water-filled-gutter seal chamber I designed that could be set up and sampled from a distance of 2 m with a remote rod sampling system to reduce soil disturbance. Compared to the conventional design, the remotely-sampled static chambers reduced the chance of detecting inflated initial CH4 concentrations from 66 to 6%, and nearly doubled the proportion of robust linear regressions from 45 to 86%. The new system I developed allows for more accurate and reliable CH4 sampling without costly boardwalk construction.

I explored the relationship between CH4 emissions and aquatic herbivores, which are recognized for imposing top-down control on the structure of wetland ecosystems. The biogeochemical consequences of herbivore-driven disruption of plant growth, and in turn, mediated oxygen transport into wetland sediments, were not previously known. Two growing seasons of herbivore exclusion experiments in a major waterfowl overwintering wetland in the Southeastern U.S. demonstrate that waterfowl herbivory had a strong impact on the oxygen-sensitive processes of CH4 emission and nitrification. Denudation by herbivorous birds increased cumulative CH4 flux by 233% (a mean of 63 g CH4 m-2 y-1) and inhibited coupled nitrification-denitrification, as indicated by nitrate availability and emissions of nitrous oxide. The recognition that large populations of aquatic herbivores may influence the capacity for wetlands to emit greenhouse gases and cycle nitrogen is particularly salient in the context of climate change and nutrient pollution mitigation goals. For example, our results suggest that annual emissions of 23 Gg of CH4 y-1 from ~55,000 ha of publicly owned waterfowl impoundments in the Southeastern U.S. could be tripled by overgrazing.

Hydrologically controlled moist-soil impoundment wetlands provide critical habitat for high densities of migratory bird populations, thus their potential to export nitrogen (N) to downstream waters may contribute to the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems. To investigate the relative importance of N export from these built and managed habitats, I conducted a field study at an impoundment wetland that drains into hypereutrophic Lake Mattamuskeet. I found that prescribed hydrologic drawdowns of the impoundment exported roughly the same amount of N (14 to 22 kg ha-1) as adjacent fertilized agricultural fields (16 to 31 kg ha-1), and contributed approximately one-fifth of total N load (~45 Mg N y-1) to Lake Mattamuskeet. Ironically, the prescribed drawdown regime, designed to maximize waterfowl production in impoundments, may be exacerbating the degradation of habitat quality in the downstream lake. Few studies of wetland N dynamics have targeted impoundments managed to provide wildlife habitat, but a similar phenomenon may occur in some of the 36,000 ha of similarly-managed moist-soil impoundments on National Wildlife Refuges in the southeastern U.S. I suggest early drawdown as a potential method to mitigate impoundment N pollution and estimate it could reduce N export from our study impoundment by more than 70%.

In this dissertation research I found direct relationships between wetland restoration and impoundment management practices, and biogeochemical responses of greenhouse gas emission and nutrient cycling. Elevated soil C at a restored wetland increased CO2 losses even ten years after the organic matter was originally added and intensive herbivory impact on emergent aquatic vegetation resulted in a ~230% increase in CH4 emissions and impaired N cycling and removal. These findings have important implications for the basic understanding of the biogeochemical functioning of wetlands and practical importance for wetland restoration and impoundment management in the face of pressure to mitigate the environmental challenges of global warming and aquatic eutrophication.

Exploring Mechanisms of Bacterial Adaptation to Seasonal Temperature Change

This research examines three potential mechanisms by which bacteria can adapt to different temperatures: changes in strain-level population structure, gene regulation and particle colonization. For the first two mechanisms, I utilize bacterial strains from the Vibrionaceae family due to their ease of culturability, ubiquity in coastal environments and status as a model system for marine bacteria. I first examine vibrio seasonal dynamics in temperate, coastal water and compare the thermal performance of strains that occupy different thermal environments. Our results suggest that there are tradeoffs in adaptation to specific temperatures and that thermal specialization can occur at a very fine phylogenetic scale. The observed thermal specialization over relatively short evolutionary time-scales indicates that few genes or cellular processes may limit expansion to a different thermal niche. I then compare the genomic and transcriptional changes associated with thermal adaptation in closely-related vibrio strains under heat and cold stress. The two vibrio strains have very similar genomes and overall exhibit similar transcriptional profiles in response to temperature stress but their temperature preferences are determined by differential transcriptional responses in shared genes as well as temperature-dependent regulation of unique genes. Finally, I investigate the temporal dynamics of particle-attached and free-living bacterial community in coastal seawater and find that microhabitats exert a stronger forcing on microbial communities than environmental variability, suggesting that particle-attachment could buffer the impacts of environmental changes and particle-associated communities likely respond to the presence of distinct eukaryotes rather than commonly-measured environmental parameters. Integrating these results will offer new perspectives on the mechanisms by which bacteria respond to seasonal temperature changes as well as potential adaptations to climate change-driven warming of the surface oceans.

Identifying the Structure and Fate of Wastewater Derived Organic Micropollutants by High-resolution Mass Spectrometry

Human activities represent a significant burden on the global water cycle, with large and increasing demands placed on limited water resources by manufacturing, energy production and domestic water use. In addition to changing the quantity of available water resources, human activities lead to changes in water quality by introducing a large and often poorly-characterized array of chemical pollutants, which may negatively impact biodiversity in aquatic ecosystems, leading to impairment of valuable ecosystem functions and services. Domestic and industrial wastewaters represent a significant source of pollution to the aquatic environment due to inadequate or incomplete removal of chemicals introduced into waters by human activities. Currently, incomplete chemical characterization of treated wastewaters limits comprehensive risk assessment of this ubiquitous impact to water. In particular, a significant fraction of the organic chemical composition of treated industrial and domestic wastewaters remains uncharacterized at the molecular level. Efforts aimed at reducing the impacts of water pollution on aquatic ecosystems critically require knowledge of the composition of wastewaters to develop interventions capable of protecting our precious natural water resources.

The goal of this dissertation was to develop a robust, extensible and high-throughput framework for the comprehensive characterization of organic micropollutants in wastewaters by high-resolution accurate-mass mass spectrometry. High-resolution mass spectrometry provides the most powerful analytical technique available for assessing the occurrence and fate of organic pollutants in the water cycle. However, significant limitations in data processing, analysis and interpretation have limited this technique in achieving comprehensive characterization of organic pollutants occurring in natural and built environments. My work aimed to address these challenges by development of automated workflows for the structural characterization of organic pollutants in wastewater and wastewater impacted environments by high-resolution mass spectrometry, and to apply these methods in combination with novel data handling routines to conduct detailed fate studies of wastewater-derived organic micropollutants in the aquatic environment.

In Chapter 2, chemoinformatic tools were implemented along with novel non-targeted mass spectrometric analytical methods to characterize, map, and explore an environmentally-relevant “chemical space” in municipal wastewater. This was accomplished by characterizing the molecular composition of known wastewater-derived organic pollutants and substances that are prioritized as potential wastewater contaminants, using these databases to evaluate the pollutant-likeness of structures postulated for unknown organic compounds that I detected in wastewater extracts using high-resolution mass spectrometry approaches. Results showed that application of multiple computational mass spectrometric tools to structural elucidation of unknown organic pollutants arising in wastewaters improved the efficiency and veracity of screening approaches based on high-resolution mass spectrometry. Furthermore, structural similarity searching was essential for prioritizing substances sharing structural features with known organic pollutants or industrial and consumer chemicals that could enter the environment through use or disposal.

I then applied this comprehensive methodological and computational non-targeted analysis workflow to micropollutant fate analysis in domestic wastewaters (Chapter 3), surface waters impacted by water reuse activities (Chapter 4) and effluents of wastewater treatment facilities receiving wastewater from oil and gas extraction activities (Chapter 5). In Chapter 3, I showed that application of chemometric tools aided in the prioritization of non-targeted compounds arising at various stages of conventional wastewater treatment by partitioning high dimensional data into rational chemical categories based on knowledge of organic chemical fate processes, resulting in the classification of organic micropollutants based on their occurrence and/or removal during treatment. Similarly, in Chapter 4, high-resolution sampling and broad-spectrum targeted and non-targeted chemical analysis were applied to assess the occurrence and fate of organic micropollutants in a water reuse application, wherein reclaimed wastewater was applied for irrigation of turf grass. Results showed that organic micropollutant composition of surface waters receiving runoff from wastewater irrigated areas appeared to be minimally impacted by wastewater-derived organic micropollutants. Finally, Chapter 5 presents results of the comprehensive organic chemical composition of oil and gas wastewaters treated for surface water discharge. Concurrent analysis of effluent samples by complementary, broad-spectrum analytical techniques, revealed that low-levels of hydrophobic organic contaminants, but elevated concentrations of polymeric surfactants, which may effect the fate and analysis of contaminants of concern in oil and gas wastewaters.

Taken together, my work represents significant progress in the characterization of polar organic chemical pollutants associated with wastewater-impacted environments by high-resolution mass spectrometry. Application of these comprehensive methods to examine micropollutant fate processes in wastewater treatment systems, water reuse environments, and water applications in oil/gas exploration yielded new insights into the factors that influence transport, transformation, and persistence of organic micropollutants in these systems across an unprecedented breadth of chemical space.

A systematic review of evidence for silver nanoparticle-induced mitochondrial toxicity

© The Royal Society of Chemistry 2016.Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are extensively used for their antibacterial properties in a diverse set of applications, ranging from the treatment of municipal wastewater to infection control in hospitals. However, the properties of AgNPs that render them conducive to bactericidal use in commerce may influence their potential toxicity to non-bacterial organisms. Based on the physiological and phylogenetic similarities between bacteria and mitochondria within eukaryotic cells, mitochondria are a likely intracellular target of AgNP toxicity. Mitochondria-specific outcomes of AgNP exposures have been identified in multiple cell types, including (but not limited to) loss of membrane potential, inhibition of enzymes involved in oxidative phosphorylation, and changes in calcium sequestration. However, the biological significance of mitochondrial toxicity due to AgNP exposure is currently incompletely understood. This review examines the existing evidence of mitochondrial toxicity induced by AgNP exposure, with discussions of the role of the physicochemical properties of the nanoparticles themselves in mitochondrial toxicity. The impacts of potentially differential cell- and tissue-specific significance of AgNP-induced mitochondrial dysfunction are also discussed.

Passive Acoustics: A Multifaceted Tool for Marine Mammal Conservation

Marine mammals exploit the efficiency of sound propagation in the marine environment for essential activities like communication and navigation. For this reason, passive acoustics has particularly high potential for marine mammal studies, especially those aimed at population management and conservation. Despite the rapid realization of this potential through a growing number of studies, much crucial information remains unknown or poorly understood. This research attempts to address two key knowledge gaps, using the well-studied bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a model species, and underwater acoustic recordings collected on four fixed autonomous sensors deployed at multiple locations in Sarasota Bay, Florida, between September 2012 and August 2013. Underwater noise can hinder dolphin communication. The ability of these animals to overcome this obstacle was examined using recorded noise and dolphin whistles. I found that bottlenose dolphins are able to compensate for increased noise in their environment using a wide range of strategies employed in a singular fashion or in various combinations, depending on the frequency content of the noise, noise source, and time of day. These strategies include modifying whistle frequency characteristics, increasing whistle duration, and increasing whistle redundancy. Recordings were also used to evaluate the performance of six recently developed passive acoustic abundance estimation methods, by comparing their results to the true abundance of animals, obtained via a census conducted within the same area and time period. The methods employed were broadly divided into two categories – those involving direct counts of animals, and those involving counts of cues (signature whistles). The animal-based methods were traditional capture-recapture, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR), and an approach that blends the “snapshot” method and mark-recapture distance sampling, referred to here as (SMRDS). The cue-based methods were conventional distance sampling (CDS), an acoustic modeling approach involving the use of the passive sonar equation, and SECR. In the latter approach, detection probability was modelled as a function of sound transmission loss, rather than the Euclidean distance typically used. Of these methods, while SMRDS produced the most accurate estimate, SECR demonstrated the greatest potential for broad applicability to other species and locations, with minimal to no auxiliary data, such as distance from sound source to detector(s), which is often difficult to obtain. This was especially true when this method was compared to traditional capture-recapture results, which greatly underestimated abundance, despite attempts to account for major unmodelled heterogeneity. Furthermore, the incorporation of non-Euclidean distance significantly improved model accuracy. The acoustic modelling approach performed similarly to CDS, but both methods also strongly underestimated abundance. In particular, CDS proved to be inefficient. This approach requires at least 3 sensors for localization at a single point. It was also difficult to obtain accurate distances, and the sample size was greatly reduced by the failure to detect some whistles on all three recorders. As a result, this approach is not recommended for marine mammal abundance estimation when few recorders are available, or in high sound attenuation environments with relatively low sample sizes. It is hoped that these results lead to more informed management decisions, and therefore, more effective species conservation.

Effect of Termination of Long-term Free Air CO2 Enrichment on Physiology and Carbon Allocation in a Loblolly Pine Dominated Forest

This dissertation examined the response to termination of CO2 enrichment of a forest ecosystem exposed to long-term elevated atmospheric CO2 condition, and aimed at investigating responses and their underlying mechanisms of two important factors of carbon cycle in the ecosystem, stomatal conductance and soil respiration. Because the contribution of understory vegetation to the entire ecosystem grew with time, we first investigated the effect of elevated CO2 on understory vegetation. Potential growth enhancing effect of elevated CO2 were not observed, and light seemed to be a limiting factor. Secondly, we examined the importance of aerodynamic conductance to determine canopy conductance, and found that its effect can be negligible. Responses of stomatal conductance and soil respiration were assessed using Bayesian state space model. In two years after the termination of CO2 enrichment, stomatal conductance in formerly elevated CO2 returned to ambient level, while soil respiration became smaller than ambient level and did not recovered to ambient in two years.

Bridging the Scale Gap from Leaf to Canopy in Biosphere-Atmosphere Gas and Particle Exchanges

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying more than 25% of the Earth's surface, can serve as

`biological valves' in regulating the anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric aerosol

particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as responses to their surrounding environments.

While the signicance of quantifying the exchange rates of GHGs and atmospheric

aerosol particles between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is

hardly questioned in many scientic elds, the progress in improving model predictability,

data interpretation or the combination of the two remains impeded by

the lack of precise framework elucidating their dynamic transport processes over a

wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The diculty in developing prognostic modeling

tools to quantify the source or sink strength of these atmospheric substances

can be further magnied by the fact that the climate system is also sensitive to the

feedback from terrestrial ecosystems forming the so-called `feedback cycle'. Hence,

the emergent need is to reduce uncertainties when assessing this complex and dynamic

feedback cycle that is necessary to support the decisions of mitigation and

adaptation policies associated with human activities (e.g., anthropogenic emission

controls and land use managements) under current and future climate regimes.

With the goal to improve the predictions for the biosphere-atmosphere exchange

of biologically active gases and atmospheric aerosol particles, the main focus of this

dissertation is on revising and up-scaling the biotic and abiotic transport processes

from leaf to canopy scales. The validity of previous modeling studies in determining

iv

the exchange rate of gases and particles is evaluated with detailed descriptions of their

limitations. Mechanistic-based modeling approaches along with empirical studies

across dierent scales are employed to rene the mathematical descriptions of surface

conductance responsible for gas and particle exchanges as commonly adopted by all

operational models. Specically, how variation in horizontal leaf area density within

the vegetated medium, leaf size and leaf microroughness impact the aerodynamic attributes

and thereby the ultrane particle collection eciency at the leaf/branch scale

is explored using wind tunnel experiments with interpretations by a porous media

model and a scaling analysis. A multi-layered and size-resolved second-order closure

model combined with particle

uxes and concentration measurements within and

above a forest is used to explore the particle transport processes within the canopy

sub-layer and the partitioning of particle deposition onto canopy medium and forest

oor. For gases, a modeling framework accounting for the leaf-level boundary layer

eects on the stomatal pathway for gas exchange is proposed and combined with sap

ux measurements in a wind tunnel to assess how leaf-level transpiration varies with

increasing wind speed. How exogenous environmental conditions and endogenous

soil-root-stem-leaf hydraulic and eco-physiological properties impact the above- and

below-ground water dynamics in the soil-plant system and shape plant responses

to droughts is assessed by a porous media model that accommodates the transient

water

ow within the plant vascular system and is coupled with the aforementioned

leaf-level gas exchange model and soil-root interaction model. It should be noted

that tackling all aspects of potential issues causing uncertainties in forecasting the

feedback cycle between terrestrial ecosystem and the climate is unrealistic in a single

dissertation but further research questions and opportunities based on the foundation

derived from this dissertation are also brie

y discussed.