A COMPARISON OF MARKET CLEARING TOOLS IN ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS

To maintain a strict balance between demand and supply in the US power systems, the Independent System Operators (ISOs) schedule power plants and determine electricity prices using a market clearing model. This model determines for each time period and power plant, the times of startup, shutdown, the amount of power production, and the provisioning of spinning and non-spinning power generation reserves, etc. Such a deterministic optimization model takes as input the characteristics of all the generating units such as their power generation installed capacity, ramp rates, minimum up and down time requirements, and marginal costs for production, as well as the forecast of intermittent energy such as wind and solar, along with the minimum reserve requirement of the whole system. This reserve requirement is determined based on the likelihood of outages on the supply side and on the levels of error forecasts in demand and intermittent generation. With increased installed capacity of intermittent renewable energy, determining the appropriate level of reserve requirements has become harder. Stochastic market clearing models have been proposed as an alternative to deterministic market clearing models. Rather than using a fixed reserve targets as an input, stochastic market clearing models take different scenarios of wind power into consideration and determine reserves schedule as output. Using a scaled version of the power generation system of PJM, a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, and wind scenarios generated from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) data, this paper explores a comparison of the performance between a stochastic and deterministic model in market clearing. The two models are compared in their ability to contribute to the affordability, reliability and sustainability of the electricity system, measured in terms of total operational costs, load shedding and air emissions. The process of building the models and running for tests indicate that a fair comparison is difficult to obtain due to the multi-dimensional performance metrics considered here, and the difficulty in setting up the parameters of the models in a way that does not advantage or disadvantage one modeling framework. Along these lines, this study explores the effect that model assumptions such as reserve requirements, value of lost load (VOLL) and wind spillage costs have on the comparison of the performance of stochastic vs deterministic market clearing models.

The Influence of Household Economic Status and Food Consumption Patterns on Obesity Rates in Peru – Evidence from a Field Study in 11 Communities of Madre de Dios

The globalization contributes to rapid economic developments and great changes of lifestyle in Madre de Dios of Peru, both of which have influenced the health status of local people in direct and indirect ways. The high overweight and obesity rate has become one of the biggest health challenges in this region. This study quantitatively analyzed the impact of household economic status and food consumption patterns on overweight and obesity, and tried to establish their relationship with local economic activities. People living in mining communities are more likely to be overweight or obese. Increased family incomes and lacks of health knowledge are two important reasons. The large consumption of soda and alcohol are positively associated with overweight and obesity. In addition, lack of physical activities is also one of the risk factors of overweight and obesity.

Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

SplicerAV: a tool for mining microarray expression data for changes in RNA processing.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades more than fifty thousand unique clinical and biological samples have been assayed using the Affymetrix HG-U133 and HG-U95 GeneChip microarray platforms. This substantial repository has been used extensively to characterize changes in gene expression between biological samples, but has not been previously mined en masse for changes in mRNA processing. We explored the possibility of using HG-U133 microarray data to identify changes in alternative mRNA processing in several available archival datasets. RESULTS: Data from these and other gene expression microarrays can now be mined for changes in transcript isoform abundance using a program described here, SplicerAV. Using in vivo and in vitro breast cancer microarray datasets, SplicerAV was able to perform both gene and isoform specific expression profiling within the same microarray dataset. Our reanalysis of Affymetrix U133 plus 2.0 data generated by in vitro over-expression of HRAS, E2F3, beta-catenin (CTNNB1), SRC, and MYC identified several hundred oncogene-induced mRNA isoform changes, one of which recognized a previously unknown mechanism of EGFR family activation. Using clinical data, SplicerAV predicted 241 isoform changes between low and high grade breast tumors; with changes enriched among genes coding for guanyl-nucleotide exchange factors, metalloprotease inhibitors, and mRNA processing factors. Isoform changes in 15 genes were associated with aggressive cancer across the three breast cancer datasets. CONCLUSIONS: Using SplicerAV, we identified several hundred previously uncharacterized isoform changes induced by in vitro oncogene over-expression and revealed a previously unknown mechanism of EGFR activation in human mammary epithelial cells. We analyzed Affymetrix GeneChip data from over 400 human breast tumors in three independent studies, making this the largest clinical dataset analyzed for en masse changes in alternative mRNA processing. The capacity to detect RNA isoform changes in archival microarray data using SplicerAV allowed us to carry out the first analysis of isoform specific mRNA changes directly associated with cancer survival.

Impacts of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining on the Mud River, West Virginia: Selenium Accumulation, Trophic Transfer, and Toxicity in Fish

Selenium (Se) is a micronutrient necessary for the function of a variety of important enzymes; Se also exhibits a narrow range in concentrations between essentiality and toxicity. Oviparous vertebrates such as birds and fish are especially sensitive to Se toxicity, which causes reproductive impairment and defects in embryo development. Selenium occurs naturally in the Earth's crust, but it can be mobilized by a variety of anthropogenic activities, including agricultural practices, coal burning, and mining.

Mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining is a form of surface mining found throughout central Appalachia in the United States that involves blasting off the tops of mountains to access underlying coal seams. Spoil rock from the mountain is placed into adjacent valleys, forming valley fills, which bury stream headwaters and negatively impact surface water quality. This research focused on the biological impacts of Se leached from MTR/VF coal mining operations located around the Mud River, West Virginia.

In order to assess the status of Se in a lotic (flowing) system such as the Mud River, surface water, insects, and fish samples including creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) were collected from a mining impacted site as well as from a reference site not impacted by mining. Analysis of samples from the mined site showed increased conductivity and Se in the surface waters compared to the reference site in addition to increased concentrations of Se in insects and fish. Histological analysis of mined site fish gills showed a lack of normal parasites, suggesting parasite populations may be disrupted due to poor water quality. X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy techniques were used to determine the speciation of Se in insect and creek chub samples. Insects contained approximately 40-50% inorganic Se (selenate and selenite) and 50-60% organic Se (Se-methionine and Se-cystine) while fish tissues contained lower proportions of inorganic Se than insects, instead having higher proportions of organic Se in the forms of methyl-Se-cysteine, Se-cystine, and Se-methionine.

Otoliths, calcified inner ear structures, were also collected from Mud River creek chubs and green sunfish and analyzed for Se content using laser ablation inductively couple mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Significant differences were found between the two species of fish, based on the concentrations of otolith Se. Green sunfish otoliths from all sites contained background or low concentrations of otolith Se (< 1 µg/g) that were not significantly different between mined and unmined sites. In contrast creek chub otoliths from the historically mined site contained much higher (≥ 5 µg/g, up to approximately 68 µg/g) concentrations of Se than for the same species in the unmined site or for the green sunfish. Otolith Se concentrations were related to muscle Se concentrations for creek chubs (R2 = 0.54, p = 0.0002 for the last 20% of the otolith Se versus muscle Se) while no relationship was observed for green sunfish.

Additional experiments using biofilms grown in the Mud River showed increased Se in mined site biofilms compared to the reference site. When we fed fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) on these biofilms in the laboratory they accumulated higher concentrations of Se in liver and ovary tissues compared to fathead minnows fed on reference site biofilms. No differences in Se accumulation were found in muscle from either treatment group. Biofilms were also centrifuged and separated into filamentous green algae and the remaining diatom fraction. The majority of Se was found in the diatom fraction with only about 1/3rd of total biofilm Se concentration present in the filamentous green algae fraction

Finally, zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos were exposed to aqueous Se in the form of selenate, selenite, and L-selenomethionine in an attempt to determine if oxidative stress plays a role in selenium embryo toxicity. Selenate and selenite exposure did not induce embryo deformities (lordosis and craniofacial malformation). L-selenomethionine, however, induced significantly higher deformity rates at 100 µg/L compared to controls. Antioxidant rescue of L-selenomethionime induced deformities was attempted in embryos using N-acetylcysteine (NAC). Pretreatment with NAC significantly reduced deformities in the zebrafish embryos secondarily treated with L-selenomethionine, suggesting that oxidative stress may play a role in Se toxicity. Selenite exposure also induced a 6.6-fold increase in glutathione-S-transferase pi class 2 gene expression, which is involved in xenobiotic transformation. No changes in gene expression were observed for selenate or L-selenomethionine-exposed embryos.

The findings in this dissertation contribute to the understanding of how Se bioaccumulates in a lotic system and is transferred through a simulated foodweb in addition to further exploring oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for Se-induced embryo toxicity. Future studies should continue to pursue the role of oxidative stress and other mechanisms in Se toxicity and the biotransformation of Se in aquatic ecosystems.

Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2) = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.