Cost-effectiveness of electricity energy efficiency programs

We analyze the cost-effectiveness of electric utility ratepayer-funded programs to promote demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) investments. We specify a model that relates electricity demand to previous EE DSM spending, energy prices, income, weather, and other demand factors. In contrast to previous studies, we allow EE DSM spending to have a potential longterm demand effect and explicitly address possible endogeneity in spending. We find that current period EE DSM expenditures reduce electricity demand and that this effect persists for a number of years. Our findings suggest that ratepayer funded DSM expenditures between 1992 and 2006 produced a central estimate of 0.9 percent savings in electricity consumption over that time period and a 1.8 percent savings over all years. These energy savings came at an expected average cost to utilities of roughly 5 cents per kWh saved when future savings are discounted at a 5 percent rate. Copyright © 2012 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Consumption of cyanogenic bamboo by a newly discovered species of bamboo lemur

Three species of bamboo‐eating lemurs were found to be sympatric in the southeastern rain forests of Madagascar. Sympatric species generally differ in habitat utilization or diet, but these three closely related bamboo lemurs lived in the same habitat and all ate bamboo. Behavioral observation revealed that they did select different parts of the bamboo, and chemical analyses confirmed that there was a difference in the secondary compound content present in those selections. The growing tips of Cephalostachyum ef uiguieri selected by the golden bamboo lemur (Hapalemuraureus) contained 15 mg of cyanide per 100 g fresh weight bamboo while the leaves of C. perrieri selected by the gentle bamboo lemur (H. griseus)and the mature culms of C. cf uiguieri selected by the greater bamboolemur (H. simus) did not contain cyanide. Since each individual golden bamboo lemur ate about 500 g of bamboo per day, they daily ingestedabout 12 times the lethal dose of cyanide. The mechanism by which this small primate avoids the acute and chronic symptoms of cyanide poisioning is unknown. Copyright © 1989 Wiley‐Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company

A COMPARISON OF MARKET CLEARING TOOLS IN ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS

To maintain a strict balance between demand and supply in the US power systems, the Independent System Operators (ISOs) schedule power plants and determine electricity prices using a market clearing model. This model determines for each time period and power plant, the times of startup, shutdown, the amount of power production, and the provisioning of spinning and non-spinning power generation reserves, etc. Such a deterministic optimization model takes as input the characteristics of all the generating units such as their power generation installed capacity, ramp rates, minimum up and down time requirements, and marginal costs for production, as well as the forecast of intermittent energy such as wind and solar, along with the minimum reserve requirement of the whole system. This reserve requirement is determined based on the likelihood of outages on the supply side and on the levels of error forecasts in demand and intermittent generation. With increased installed capacity of intermittent renewable energy, determining the appropriate level of reserve requirements has become harder. Stochastic market clearing models have been proposed as an alternative to deterministic market clearing models. Rather than using a fixed reserve targets as an input, stochastic market clearing models take different scenarios of wind power into consideration and determine reserves schedule as output. Using a scaled version of the power generation system of PJM, a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, and wind scenarios generated from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) data, this paper explores a comparison of the performance between a stochastic and deterministic model in market clearing. The two models are compared in their ability to contribute to the affordability, reliability and sustainability of the electricity system, measured in terms of total operational costs, load shedding and air emissions. The process of building the models and running for tests indicate that a fair comparison is difficult to obtain due to the multi-dimensional performance metrics considered here, and the difficulty in setting up the parameters of the models in a way that does not advantage or disadvantage one modeling framework. Along these lines, this study explores the effect that model assumptions such as reserve requirements, value of lost load (VOLL) and wind spillage costs have on the comparison of the performance of stochastic vs deterministic market clearing models.

Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

Monitoring maternal Beta carotene and retinol consumption may decrease the incidence of neurodevelopmental disorders in offspring.

Retinoic acids (13-cis and 13-trans) are known teratogens, and their precursor is retinol, a form of vitamin A. In 1995, Rothman et al demonstrated an association between excessive vitamin A, >10,000 IU/day, during the first trimester of pregnancy and teratogenic effects, particularly in the central nervous system. However, vitamin A deficiency has long been known to be deleterious to the mother and fetus. Therefore, there may be a narrow therapeutic ratio for vitamin A during pregnancy that has not previously been fully appreciated. Neurodevelopmental disorders may not be apparent by macroscopic brain examination or imaging, and proving the existence of a behavioral teratogen is not straightforward. However, an excess of retinoic acid and some neurodevelopmental disorders are both associated with abnormalities in cerebellar morphology. Physical and chemical evidence strongly supports the notion that beta carotene crosses the placenta and is metabolized to retinol. Only very limited amounts of beta carotene are stored in fetal fat cells as evidenced by the fact that maternal fat is yellow from beta carotene, whereas non-brown neonatal fat is white. Furthermore, newborns of carotenemic mothers do not share the yellow complexion of their mothers. The excess 13-trans retinoic acid derived from metabolized beta carotene in the fetus increases the concentration of the more teratogenic 13-cis retinoic acid since the isomerization equilibrium is shifted to the left. Therefore, this paper proposes that consideration be given to monitoring all potential sources of fetal 13-cis and 13-trans retinoic acid, including nutritional supplements, dietary retinol, and beta carotene, particularly in the first trimester of pregnancy.

Illicit cigarette consumption and government revenue loss in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection. METHODS: This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia. RESULTS: Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia's status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.