Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts.

Interior pathways of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

To understand how our global climate will change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing, it is essential to determine how quickly and by what pathways climate change signals are transported throughout the global ocean, a vast reservoir for heat and carbon dioxide. Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by open ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, is a particularly sensitive indicator of climate change on interannual to decadal timescales. Hydrographic observations made anywhere along the western boundary of the North Atlantic reveal a core of LSW at intermediate depths advected southward within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). These observations have led to the widely held view that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for the export of LSW from its formation site in the northern North Atlantic towards the Equator. Here we show that most of the recently ventilated LSW entering the subtropics follows interior, not DWBC, pathways. The interior pathways are revealed by trajectories of subsurface RAFOS floats released during the period 2003-2005 that recorded once-daily temperature, pressure and acoustically determined position for two years, and by model-simulated 'e-floats' released in the subpolar DWBC. The evidence points to a few specific locations around the Grand Banks where LSW is most often injected into the interior. These results have implications for deep ocean ventilation and suggest that the interior subtropical gyre should not be ignored when considering the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Reevaluation of mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Multiproxy temperature estimation requires careful attention to biological, chemical, physical, temporal, and calibration differences of each proxy and paleothermometry method. We evaluated mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from multiple proxies at Deep Sea Drilling Project Holes 552A, 609B, 607, and 606, transecting the North Atlantic Drift. SST estimates derived from faunal assemblages, foraminifer Mg/Ca, and alkenone unsaturation indices showed strong agreement at Holes 552A, 607, and 606 once differences in calibration, depth, and seasonality were addressed. Abundant extinct species and/or an unrecognized productivity signal in the faunal assemblage at Hole 609B resulted in exaggerated faunal-based SST estimates but did not affect alkenone-derived or Mg/Ca-derived estimates. Multiproxy mid-Pliocene North Atlantic SST estimates corroborate previous studies documenting high-latitude mid-Pliocene warmth and refine previous faunal-based estimates affected by environmental factors other than temperature. Multiproxy investigations will aid SST estimation in high-latitude areas sensitive to climate change and currently underrepresented in SST reconstructions. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

North atlantic deepwater temperature change during late pliocene and late quaternary climatic cycles

Variations in the ratio of magnesium to calcium (Mg/Ca) in fossil ostracodes from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 607 in the deep North Atlantic show that the change in bottom water temperature during late Pliocene 41,000-year obliquity cycles averaged 1.5°C between 3.2 and 2.8 million years ago (Ma) and increased to 2.3°C between 2.8 and 2.3 Ma, coincidentally with the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. During the last two 100,000-year glacial-to-interglacial climatic cycles of the Quaternary, bottom water temperatures changed by 4.5°C. These results show that glacial deepwater cooling has intensified since 3.2 Ma, most likely as the result of progressively diminished deep-water production in the North Atlantic and of the greater influence of Antarctic bottom water in the North Atlantic during glacial periods. The ostracode Mg/Ca data also allow the direct determination of the temperature component of the benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope record from Site 607, as well as derivation of a hypothetical sea-level curve for the late Pliocene and late Quaternary. The effects of dissolution on the Mg/Ca ratios of ostracode shells appear to have been minimal.

Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States

This study investigates the changes of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and its impact on summer precipitation over the southeastern (SE) United States using the 850-hPa geopotential height field in the National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), long-term rainfall data, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) model simulations during the past six decades (1948-2007). The results show that the NASH in the last 30 yr has become more intense, and its western ridge has displaced westward with an enhanced meridional movement compared to the previous 30 yr. When the NASH moved closer to the continental United States in the three most recent decades, the effect of the NASH on the interannual variation of SE U.S. precipitation is enhanced through the ridge's north-south movement. The study's attribution analysis suggested that the changes of the NASH are mainly due to anthropogenic warming. In the twenty-first century with an increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the center of the NASH would be intensified and the western ridge of the NASH would shift farther westward. These changes would increase the likelihood of both strong anomalously wet and dry summers over the SEUnited States in the future, as suggested by the IPCC AR4 models. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.