Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Increasing Motorcycle Taxi Driver Conspicuity in Tanzania

Motorcycle crash related injuries and deaths are increasing rapidly in many African nations. Utilizing conspicuity measures, such as wearing reflective, fluorescent safety vests, are effective as crash prevention strategies. Furthermore, use of some conspicuity measures is mandated by law among motorcycle-taxi drivers in Tanzania. Nonetheless, uptake remains low. Locally appropriate strategies to improve crash preventative behaviors are needed.

To explore whether use of conspicuity measures could be improved through eliminating cost-barriers, we tested a distribution strategy involving the provision of free motorcycle safety vests among a population of motorcycle-taxi drivers in Moshi, Tanzania. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial among 180 motorcycle-taxi drivers in which half of the participants (90) were randomized to the intervention arm and received a free reflective vest. The other half of the participants (90) were randomized to the control arm and did not receive free vests. Whether motorcycle taxi drivers used the reflective vest was then unobtrusively observed on city streets over a period of three months.

Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to estimate differential uptake of the vests between trial arms. At baseline, 3.3% of individuals in both arms used a reflective vest. In three months of follow-up, 79 drivers in the intervention arm and 82 drivers in the control arm were able to be observed. In the intervention arm the average proportion of observations during which drivers were observed to be using a reflective vest was 9.5%, compared to 2.0% in the control arm (odds ratio: 5.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.1-26.9, p-value: 0.04). Distribution of free reflective vests did lead to an increase in vest usage, however, the increase was minimal. Removing economic barriers alone appears insufficient to adequately improve adherence to conspicuity measures.

Evidence for GC-biased gene conversion as a driver of between-lineage differences in avian base composition.

BACKGROUND: While effective population size (Ne) and life history traits such as generation time are known to impact substitution rates, their potential effects on base composition evolution are less well understood. GC content increases with decreasing body mass in mammals, consistent with recombination-associated GC biased gene conversion (gBGC) more strongly impacting these lineages. However, shifts in chromosomal architecture and recombination landscapes between species may complicate the interpretation of these results. In birds, interchromosomal rearrangements are rare and the recombination landscape is conserved, suggesting that this group is well suited to assess the impact of life history on base composition. RESULTS: Employing data from 45 newly and 3 previously sequenced avian genomes covering a broad range of taxa, we found that lineages with large populations and short generations exhibit higher GC content. The effect extends to both coding and non-coding sites, indicating that it is not due to selection on codon usage. Consistent with recombination driving base composition, GC content and heterogeneity were positively correlated with the rate of recombination. Moreover, we observed ongoing increases in GC in the majority of lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide evidence that gBGC may drive patterns of nucleotide composition in avian genomes and are consistent with more effective gBGC in large populations and a greater number of meioses per unit time; that is, a shorter generation time. Thus, in accord with theoretical predictions, base composition evolution is substantially modulated by species life history.