Telescoping is not time compression: a model of the dating of autobiographical events.

A model of telescoping is proposed that assumes no systematic errors in dating. Rather, the overestimation of recent occurrences of events is based on the combination of three factors: (1) Retention is greater for recent events; (2) errors in dating, though unbiased, increase linearly with the time since the dated event; and (3) intrusions often occur from events outside the period being asked about, but such intrusions do not come from events that have not yet occurred. In Experiment 1, we found that recall for colloquia fell markedly over a 2-year interval, the magnitude of errors in psychologists' dating of the colloquia increased at a rate of .4 days per day of delay, and the direction of the dating error was toward the middle of the interval. In Experiment 2, the model used the retention function and dating errors from the first study to predict the distribution of the actual dates of colloquia recalled as being within a 5-month period. In Experiment 3, the findings of the first study were replicated with colloquia given by, instead of for, the subjects.

An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the next day, on the same day, or neither. Discharge predictions were recorded at 3 time points: mornings (7-9 am), midday (12-2 pm), or afternoons (5-7 pm), for a total of 2641 predictions. For predictions of next-day discharge, the sensitivity (SN) and positive predictive value (PPV) were lowest in the morning (27% and 33%, respectively), but increased by the afternoon (SN 67%, PPV 69%). Similarly, for same-day discharge predictions, SN and PPV were highest at midday (88% and 79%, respectively). We found that although physicians have difficulty predicting next-day discharges in the morning prior to the day of expected discharge, their ability to correctly predict discharges continually improved as the time to actual discharge decreased. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;10:808-810. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.