Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.

The research and development costs of 93 randomly selected new chemical entities (NCEs) were obtained from a survey of 12 U.S.-owned pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the pre-tax average cost of new drug development. The costs of abandoned NCEs were linked to the costs of NCEs that obtained marketing approval. For base case parameter values, the estimated out-of-pocket cost per approved NCE is $114 million (1987 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a 9% discount rate yielded an average cost estimate of $231 million (1987 dollars).

Science incubators: synthesis centers and their role in the research ecosystem.

How should funding agencies enable researchers to explore high-risk but potentially high-reward science? One model that appears to work is the NSF-funded synthesis center, an incubator for community-led, innovative science.

Overview of FEED, the feeding experiments end-user database.

The Feeding Experiments End-user Database (FEED) is a research tool developed by the Mammalian Feeding Working Group at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center that permits synthetic, evolutionary analyses of the physiology of mammalian feeding. The tasks of the Working Group are to compile physiologic data sets into a uniform digital format stored at a central source, develop a standardized terminology for describing and organizing the data, and carry out a set of novel analyses using FEED. FEED contains raw physiologic data linked to extensive metadata. It serves as an archive for a large number of existing data sets and a repository for future data sets. The metadata are stored as text and images that describe experimental protocols, research subjects, and anatomical information. The metadata incorporate controlled vocabularies to allow consistent use of the terms used to describe and organize the physiologic data. The planned analyses address long-standing questions concerning the phylogenetic distribution of phenotypes involving muscle anatomy and feeding physiology among mammals, the presence and nature of motor pattern conservation in the mammalian feeding muscles, and the extent to which suckling constrains the evolution of feeding behavior in adult mammals. We expect FEED to be a growing digital archive that will facilitate new research into understanding the evolution of feeding anatomy.

Computational Methods for RNA Structure Validation and Improvement.

With increasing recognition of the roles RNA molecules and RNA/protein complexes play in an unexpected variety of biological processes, understanding of RNA structure-function relationships is of high current importance. To make clean biological interpretations from three-dimensional structures, it is imperative to have high-quality, accurate RNA crystal structures available, and the community has thoroughly embraced that goal. However, due to the many degrees of freedom inherent in RNA structure (especially for the backbone), it is a significant challenge to succeed in building accurate experimental models for RNA structures. This chapter describes the tools and techniques our research group and our collaborators have developed over the years to help RNA structural biologists both evaluate and achieve better accuracy. Expert analysis of large, high-resolution, quality-conscious RNA datasets provides the fundamental information that enables automated methods for robust and efficient error diagnosis in validating RNA structures at all resolutions. The even more crucial goal of correcting the diagnosed outliers has steadily developed toward highly effective, computationally based techniques. Automation enables solving complex issues in large RNA structures, but cannot circumvent the need for thoughtful examination of local details, and so we also provide some guidance for interpreting and acting on the results of current structure validation for RNA.

Bridging the Scale Gap from Leaf to Canopy in Biosphere-Atmosphere Gas and Particle Exchanges

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying more than 25% of the Earth's surface, can serve as

`biological valves' in regulating the anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric aerosol

particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as responses to their surrounding environments.

While the signicance of quantifying the exchange rates of GHGs and atmospheric

aerosol particles between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is

hardly questioned in many scientic elds, the progress in improving model predictability,

data interpretation or the combination of the two remains impeded by

the lack of precise framework elucidating their dynamic transport processes over a

wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The diculty in developing prognostic modeling

tools to quantify the source or sink strength of these atmospheric substances

can be further magnied by the fact that the climate system is also sensitive to the

feedback from terrestrial ecosystems forming the so-called `feedback cycle'. Hence,

the emergent need is to reduce uncertainties when assessing this complex and dynamic

feedback cycle that is necessary to support the decisions of mitigation and

adaptation policies associated with human activities (e.g., anthropogenic emission

controls and land use managements) under current and future climate regimes.

With the goal to improve the predictions for the biosphere-atmosphere exchange

of biologically active gases and atmospheric aerosol particles, the main focus of this

dissertation is on revising and up-scaling the biotic and abiotic transport processes

from leaf to canopy scales. The validity of previous modeling studies in determining

iv

the exchange rate of gases and particles is evaluated with detailed descriptions of their

limitations. Mechanistic-based modeling approaches along with empirical studies

across dierent scales are employed to rene the mathematical descriptions of surface

conductance responsible for gas and particle exchanges as commonly adopted by all

operational models. Specically, how variation in horizontal leaf area density within

the vegetated medium, leaf size and leaf microroughness impact the aerodynamic attributes

and thereby the ultrane particle collection eciency at the leaf/branch scale

is explored using wind tunnel experiments with interpretations by a porous media

model and a scaling analysis. A multi-layered and size-resolved second-order closure

model combined with particle

uxes and concentration measurements within and

above a forest is used to explore the particle transport processes within the canopy

sub-layer and the partitioning of particle deposition onto canopy medium and forest

oor. For gases, a modeling framework accounting for the leaf-level boundary layer

eects on the stomatal pathway for gas exchange is proposed and combined with sap

ux measurements in a wind tunnel to assess how leaf-level transpiration varies with

increasing wind speed. How exogenous environmental conditions and endogenous

soil-root-stem-leaf hydraulic and eco-physiological properties impact the above- and

below-ground water dynamics in the soil-plant system and shape plant responses

to droughts is assessed by a porous media model that accommodates the transient

water

ow within the plant vascular system and is coupled with the aforementioned

leaf-level gas exchange model and soil-root interaction model. It should be noted

that tackling all aspects of potential issues causing uncertainties in forecasting the

feedback cycle between terrestrial ecosystem and the climate is unrealistic in a single

dissertation but further research questions and opportunities based on the foundation

derived from this dissertation are also brie

y discussed.

Dual-energy computed tomography with advanced postimage acquisition data processing: improved determination of urinary stone composition.

INTRODUCTION: The characterization of urinary calculi using noninvasive methods has the potential to affect clinical management. CT remains the gold standard for diagnosis of urinary calculi, but has not reliably differentiated varying stone compositions. Dual-energy CT (DECT) has emerged as a technology to improve CT characterization of anatomic structures. This study aims to assess the ability of DECT to accurately discriminate between different types of urinary calculi in an in vitro model using novel postimage acquisition data processing techniques. METHODS: Fifty urinary calculi were assessed, of which 44 had >or=60% composition of one component. DECT was performed utilizing 64-slice multidetector CT. The attenuation profiles of the lower-energy (DECT-Low) and higher-energy (DECT-High) datasets were used to investigate whether differences could be seen between different stone compositions. RESULTS: Postimage acquisition processing allowed for identification of the main different chemical compositions of urinary calculi: brushite, calcium oxalate-calcium phosphate, struvite, cystine, and uric acid. Statistical analysis demonstrated that this processing identified all stone compositions without obvious graphical overlap. CONCLUSION: Dual-energy multidetector CT with postprocessing techniques allows for accurate discrimination among the main different subtypes of urinary calculi in an in vitro model. The ability to better detect stone composition may have implications in determining the optimum clinical treatment modality for urinary calculi from noninvasive, preprocedure radiological assessment.

Bayesian Gaussian Copula Factor Models for Mixed Data.

Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables or through generalized latent trait models acommodating measurements in the exponential family. However, when generalizing to non-Gaussian measured variables the latent variables typically influence both the dependence structure and the form of the marginal distributions, complicating interpretation and introducing artifacts. To address this problem we propose a novel class of Bayesian Gaussian copula factor models which decouple the latent factors from the marginal distributions. A semiparametric specification for the marginals based on the extended rank likelihood yields straightforward implementation and substantial computational gains. We provide new theoretical and empirical justifications for using this likelihood in Bayesian inference. We propose new default priors for the factor loadings and develop efficient parameter-expanded Gibbs sampling for posterior computation. The methods are evaluated through simulations and applied to a dataset in political science. The models in this paper are implemented in the R package bfa.

Spectrotemporal CT data acquisition and reconstruction at low dose.

PURPOSE: X-ray computed tomography (CT) is widely used, both clinically and preclinically, for fast, high-resolution anatomic imaging; however, compelling opportunities exist to expand its use in functional imaging applications. For instance, spectral information combined with nanoparticle contrast agents enables quantification of tissue perfusion levels, while temporal information details cardiac and respiratory dynamics. The authors propose and demonstrate a projection acquisition and reconstruction strategy for 5D CT (3D+dual energy+time) which recovers spectral and temporal information without substantially increasing radiation dose or sampling time relative to anatomic imaging protocols. METHODS: The authors approach the 5D reconstruction problem within the framework of low-rank and sparse matrix decomposition. Unlike previous work on rank-sparsity constrained CT reconstruction, the authors establish an explicit rank-sparse signal model to describe the spectral and temporal dimensions. The spectral dimension is represented as a well-sampled time and energy averaged image plus regularly undersampled principal components describing the spectral contrast. The temporal dimension is represented as the same time and energy averaged reconstruction plus contiguous, spatially sparse, and irregularly sampled temporal contrast images. Using a nonlinear, image domain filtration approach, the authors refer to as rank-sparse kernel regression, the authors transfer image structure from the well-sampled time and energy averaged reconstruction to the spectral and temporal contrast images. This regularization strategy strictly constrains the reconstruction problem while approximately separating the temporal and spectral dimensions. Separability results in a highly compressed representation for the 5D data in which projections are shared between the temporal and spectral reconstruction subproblems, enabling substantial undersampling. The authors solved the 5D reconstruction problem using the split Bregman method and GPU-based implementations of backprojection, reprojection, and kernel regression. Using a preclinical mouse model, the authors apply the proposed algorithm to study myocardial injury following radiation treatment of breast cancer. RESULTS: Quantitative 5D simulations are performed using the MOBY mouse phantom. Twenty data sets (ten cardiac phases, two energies) are reconstructed with 88 μm, isotropic voxels from 450 total projections acquired over a single 360° rotation. In vivo 5D myocardial injury data sets acquired in two mice injected with gold and iodine nanoparticles are also reconstructed with 20 data sets per mouse using the same acquisition parameters (dose: ∼60 mGy). For both the simulations and the in vivo data, the reconstruction quality is sufficient to perform material decomposition into gold and iodine maps to localize the extent of myocardial injury (gold accumulation) and to measure cardiac functional metrics (vascular iodine). Their 5D CT imaging protocol represents a 95% reduction in radiation dose per cardiac phase and energy and a 40-fold decrease in projection sampling time relative to their standard imaging protocol. CONCLUSIONS: Their 5D CT data acquisition and reconstruction protocol efficiently exploits the rank-sparse nature of spectral and temporal CT data to provide high-fidelity reconstruction results without increased radiation dose or sampling time.