Volume, volatility, and leverage: A dynamic analysis

This paper uses dynamic impulse response analysis to investigate the interrelationships among stock price volatility, trading volume, and the leverage effect. Dynamic impulse response analysis is a technique for analyzing the multi-step-ahead characteristics of a nonparametric estimate of the one-step conditional density of a strictly stationary process. The technique is the generalization to a nonlinear process of Sims-style impulse response analysis for linear models. In this paper, we refine the technique and apply it to a long panel of daily observations on the price and trading volume of four stocks actively traded on the NYSE: Boeing, Coca-Cola, IBM, and MMM.

Predicting Transcript Production Rates in Yeast With Sparse Linear Models

To provide biological insights into transcriptional regulation, a couple of groups have recently presented models relating the promoter DNA-bound transcription factors (TFs) to downstream gene’s mean transcript level or transcript production rates over time. However, transcript production is dynamic in response to changes of TF concentrations over time. Also, TFs are not the only factors binding to promoters; other DNA binding factors (DBFs) bind as well, especially nucleosomes, resulting in competition between DBFs for binding at same genomic location. Additionally, not only TFs, but also some other elements regulate transcription. Within core promoter, various regulatory elements influence RNAPII recruitment, PIC formation, RNAPII searching for TSS, and RNAPII initiating transcription. Moreover, it is proposed that downstream from TSS, nucleosomes resist RNAPII elongation.

Here, we provide a machine learning framework to predict transcript production rates from DNA sequences. We applied this framework in the S. cerevisiae yeast for two scenarios: a) to predict the dynamic transcript production rate during the cell cycle for native promoters; b) to predict the mean transcript production rate over time for synthetic promoters. As far as we know, our framework is the first successful attempt to have a model that can predict dynamic transcript production rates from DNA sequences only: with cell cycle data set, we got Pearson correlation coefficient Cp = 0.751 and coefficient of determination r2 = 0.564 on test set for predicting dynamic transcript production rate over time. Also, for DREAM6 Gene Promoter Expression Prediction challenge, our fitted model outperformed all participant teams, best of all teams, and a model combining best team’s k-mer based sequence features and another paper’s biologically mechanistic features, in terms of all scoring metrics.

Moreover, our framework shows its capability of identifying generalizable fea- tures by interpreting the highly predictive models, and thereby provide support for associated hypothesized mechanisms about transcriptional regulation. With the learned sparse linear models, we got results supporting the following biological insights: a) TFs govern the probability of RNAPII recruitment and initiation possibly through interactions with PIC components and transcription cofactors; b) the core promoter amplifies the transcript production probably by influencing PIC formation, RNAPII recruitment, DNA melting, RNAPII searching for and selecting TSS, releasing RNAPII from general transcription factors, and thereby initiation; c) there is strong transcriptional synergy between TFs and core promoter elements; d) the regulatory elements within core promoter region are more than TATA box and nucleosome free region, suggesting the existence of still unidentified TAF-dependent and cofactor-dependent core promoter elements in yeast S. cerevisiae; e) nucleosome occupancy is helpful for representing +1 and -1 nucleosomes’ regulatory roles on transcription.

Typical delay determines waiting time on periodic-food schedules: Static and dynamic tests.

Pigeons and other animals soon learn to wait (pause) after food delivery on periodic-food schedules before resuming the food-rewarded response. Under most conditions the steady-state duration of the average waiting time, t, is a linear function of the typical interfood interval. We describe three experiments designed to explore the limits of this process. In all experiments, t was associated with one key color and the subsequent food delay, T, with another. In the first experiment, we compared the relation between t (waiting time) and T (food delay) under two conditions: when T was held constant, and when T was an inverse function of t. The pigeons could maximize the rate of food delivery under the first condition by setting t to a consistently short value; optimal behavior under the second condition required a linear relation with unit slope between t and T. Despite this difference in optimal policy, the pigeons in both cases showed the same linear relation, with slope less than one, between t and T. This result was confirmed in a second parametric experiment that added a third condition, in which T + t was held constant. Linear waiting appears to be an obligatory rule for pigeons. In a third experiment we arranged for a multiplicative relation between t and T (positive feedback), and produced either very short or very long waiting times as predicted by a quasi-dynamic model in which waiting time is strongly determined by the just-preceding food delay.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Mechanochemistry for Active Materials and Devices

The coupling of mechanical stress fields in polymers to covalent chemistry (polymer mechanochemistry) has provided access to previously unattainable chemical reactions and polymer transformations. In the bulk, mechanochemical activation has been used as the basis for new classes of stress-responsive polymers that demonstrate stress/strain sensing, shear-induced intermolecular reactivity for molecular level remodeling and self-strengthening, and the release of acids and other small molecules that are potentially capable of triggering further chemical response. The potential utility of polymer mechanochemistry in functional materials is limited, however, by the fact that to date, all reported covalent activation in the bulk occurs in concert with plastic yield and deformation, so that the structure of the activated object is vastly different from its nascent form. Mechanochemically activated materials have thus been limited to “single use” demonstrations, rather than as multi-functional materials for structural and/or device applications. Here, we report that filled polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) elastomers provide a robust elastic substrate into which mechanophores can be embedded and activated under conditions from which the sample regains its original shape and properties. Fabrication is straightforward and easily accessible, providing access for the first time to objects and devices that either release or reversibly activate chemical functionality over hundreds of loading cycles.

While the mechanically accelerated ring-opening reaction of spiropyran to merocyanine and associated color change provides a useful method by which to image the molecular scale stress/strain distribution within a polymer, the magnitude of the forces necessary for activation had yet to be quantified. Here, we report single molecule force spectroscopy studies of two spiropyran isomers. Ring opening on the timescale of tens of milliseconds is found to require forces of ~240 pN, well below that of previously characterized covalent mechanophores. The lower threshold force is a combination of a low force-free activation energy and the fact that the change in rate with force (activation length) of each isomer is greater than that inferred in other systems. Importantly, quantifying the magnitude of forces required to activate individual spiropyran-based force-probes enables the probe behave as a “scout” of molecular forces in materials; the observed behavior of which can be extrapolated to predict the reactivity of potential mechanophores within a given material and deformation.

We subsequently translated the design platform to existing dynamic soft technologies to fabricate the first mechanochemically responsive devices; first, by remotely inducing dielectric patterning of an elastic substrate to produce assorted fluorescent patterns in concert with topological changes; and second, by adopting a soft robotic platform to produce a color change from the strains inherent to pneumatically actuated robotic motion. Shown herein, covalent polymer mechanochemistry provides a viable mechanism to convert the same mechanical potential energy used for actuation into value-added, constructive covalent chemical responses. The color change associated with actuation suggests opportunities for not only new color changing or camouflaging strategies, but also the possibility for simultaneous activation of latent chemistry (e.g., release of small molecules, change in mechanical properties, activation of catalysts, etc.) in soft robots. In addition, mechanochromic stress mapping in a functional actuating device might provide a useful design and optimization tool, revealing spatial and temporal force evolution within the actuator in a way that might also be coupled to feedback loops that allow autonomous, self-regulation of activity.

In the future, both the specific material and the general approach should be useful in enriching the responsive functionality of soft elastomeric materials and devices. We anticipate the development of new mechanophores that, like the materials, are reversibly and repeatedly activated, expanding the capabilities of soft, active devices and further permitting dynamic control over chemical reactivity that is otherwise inaccessible, each in response to a single remote signal.