Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical information sources, a simple average provides the optimal crowd forecast. However, correlated forecast errors greatly limit the ability of the wisdom of crowds to recover the truth. In practice, this dependence often emerges because information is shared: forecasters may to a large extent draw on the same data when formulating their responses.

To address this problem, I propose an elicitation procedure in which each respondent is asked to provide both their own best forecast and a guess of the average forecast that will be given by all other respondents. I study optimal responses in a stylized information setting and develop an aggregation method, called pivoting, which separates individual forecasts into shared and private information and then recombines these results in the optimal manner. I develop a tailored pivoting procedure for each of three information models, and introduce a simple and robust variant that outperforms the simple average across a variety of settings.

In three experiments, I investigate the method and the accuracy of the crowd forecasts. In the first study, I vary the shared and private information in a controlled environment, while the latter two studies examine forecasts in real-world contexts. Overall, the data suggest that a simple minimal pivoting procedure provides an effective aggregation technique that can significantly outperform the crowd average.

Peer rejection and social information-processing factors in the development of aggressive behavior problems in children.

The relation between social rejection and growth in antisocial behavior was investigated. In Study 1,259 boys and girls (34% African American) were followed from Grades 1 to 3 (ages 6-8 years) to Grades 5 to 7 (ages 10-12 years). Early peer rejection predicted growth in aggression. In Study 2,585 boys and girls (16% African American) were followed from kindergarten to Grade 3 (ages 5-8 years), and findings were replicated. Furthermore, early aggression moderated the effect of rejection, such that rejection exacerbated antisocial development only among children initially disposed toward aggression. In Study 3, social information-processing patterns measured in Study 1 were found to mediate partially the effect of early rejection on later aggression. In Study 4, processing patterns measured in Study 2 replicated the mediation effect. Findings are integrated into a recursive model of antisocial development.

Imagery and retrieval of auditory and visual information: neural correlates of successful and unsuccessful performance.

Remembering past events - or episodic retrieval - consists of several components. There is evidence that mental imagery plays an important role in retrieval and that the brain regions supporting imagery overlap with those supporting retrieval. An open issue is to what extent these regions support successful vs. unsuccessful imagery and retrieval processes. Previous studies that examined regional overlap between imagery and retrieval used uncontrolled memory conditions, such as autobiographical memory tasks, that cannot distinguish between successful and unsuccessful retrieval. A second issue is that fMRI studies that compared imagery and retrieval have used modality-aspecific cues that are likely to activate auditory and visual processing regions simultaneously. Thus, it is not clear to what extent identified brain regions support modality-specific or modality-independent imagery and retrieval processes. In the current fMRI study, we addressed this issue by comparing imagery to retrieval under controlled memory conditions in both auditory and visual modalities. We also obtained subjective measures of imagery quality allowing us to dissociate regions contributing to successful vs. unsuccessful imagery. Results indicated that auditory and visual regions contribute both to imagery and retrieval in a modality-specific fashion. In addition, we identified four sets of brain regions with distinct patterns of activity that contributed to imagery and retrieval in a modality-independent fashion. The first set of regions, including hippocampus, posterior cingulate cortex, medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyrus, showed a pattern common to imagery/retrieval and consistent with successful performance regardless of task. The second set of regions, including dorsal precuneus, anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, also showed a pattern common to imagery and retrieval, but consistent with unsuccessful performance during both tasks. Third, left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex showed an interaction between task and performance and was associated with successful imagery but unsuccessful retrieval. Finally, the fourth set of regions, including ventral precuneus, midcingulate cortex and supramarginal gyrus, showed the opposite interaction, supporting unsuccessful imagery, but successful retrieval performance. Results are discussed in relation to reconstructive, attentional, semantic memory, and working memory processes. This is the first study to separate the neural correlates of successful and unsuccessful performance for both imagery and retrieval and for both auditory and visual modalities.