High-Resolution In Situ Oxygen-Argon Studies of Surface Biological and Physical Processes in the Polar Oceans

The Arctic Ocean and Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are the fastest warming regions on the planet and are undergoing rapid climate and ecosystem changes. Until we can fully resolve the coupling between biological and physical processes we cannot predict how warming will influence carbon cycling and ecosystem function and structure in these sensitive and climactically important regions. My dissertation centers on the use of high-resolution measurements of surface dissolved gases, primarily O2 and Ar, as tracers or physical and biological functioning that we measure underway using an optode and Equilibrator Inlet Mass Spectrometry (EIMS). Total O2 measurements are common throughout the historical and autonomous record but are influenced by biological (net metabolic balance) and physical (temperature, salinity, pressure changes, ice melt/freeze, mixing, bubbles and diffusive gas exchange) processes. We use Ar, an inert gas with similar solubility properties to O2, to devolve distinct records of biological (O2/Ar) and physical (Ar) oxygen. These high-resolution measurements that expose intersystem coupling and submesoscale variability were central to studies in the Arctic Ocean, WAP and open Southern Ocean that make up this dissertation.

Key findings of this work include the documentation of under ice and ice-edge blooms and basin scale net sea ice freeze/melt processes in the Arctic Ocean. In the WAP O2 and pCO2 are both biologically driven and net community production (NCP) variability is controlled by Fe and light availability tied to glacial and sea ice meltwater input. Further, we present a feasibility study that shows the ability to use modeled Ar to derive NCP from total O2 records. This approach has the potential to unlock critical carbon flux estimates from historical and autonomous O2 measurements in the global oceans.

Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States

This study investigates the changes of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and its impact on summer precipitation over the southeastern (SE) United States using the 850-hPa geopotential height field in the National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), long-term rainfall data, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) model simulations during the past six decades (1948-2007). The results show that the NASH in the last 30 yr has become more intense, and its western ridge has displaced westward with an enhanced meridional movement compared to the previous 30 yr. When the NASH moved closer to the continental United States in the three most recent decades, the effect of the NASH on the interannual variation of SE U.S. precipitation is enhanced through the ridge's north-south movement. The study's attribution analysis suggested that the changes of the NASH are mainly due to anthropogenic warming. In the twenty-first century with an increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the center of the NASH would be intensified and the western ridge of the NASH would shift farther westward. These changes would increase the likelihood of both strong anomalously wet and dry summers over the SEUnited States in the future, as suggested by the IPCC AR4 models. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.