Challenges in the diagnosis and treatment of depression in autism spectrum disorders across the lifespan.

Diagnosis and treatment of comorbid neuropsychiatric illness is often a secondary focus of treatment in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), given that substantial impairment may be caused by core symptoms of ASD itself. However, psychiatric comorbidities, including depressive disorders, are common and frequently result in additional functional impairment, treatment costs, and burden on caregivers. Clinicians may struggle to appropriately diagnose depression in ASD due to communication deficits, atypical presentation of depression in ASD, and lack of standardized diagnostic tools. Specific risk and resilience factors for depression in ASD across the lifespan, including level of functioning, age, family history, and coping style, have been suggested, but require further study. Treatment with medications or psychotherapy may be beneficial, though more research is required to establish guidelines for management of symptoms. This review will describe typical presentations of depression in individuals with ASD, review current information on the prevalence, assessment, and treatment of comorbid depression in individuals with ASD, and identify important research gaps.

Developing and Validating a Perinatal Depression Screening Tool in Bungoma County, Kenya

Background: Depression-screening tools exist and are widely used in Western settings. There have been few studies done to explore whether or not existing tools are valid and effective to use in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to develop and validate a perinatal depression-screening tool in rural Kenya.

Methods: We utilized conducted free listing and card sorting exercises with a purposive sample of 12 women and 38 CHVs living in a rural community to explore the manifestations of perinatal depression in that setting. We used the information obtained to produce a locally relevant depression-screening tool that comprised of existing Western psychiatric concepts and locally derived items. Subsequently, we administered the novel depression-screening tool and two existing screening tools (the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9) to 193 women and compared the results of the screening tool with that of a gold standard structured clinical interview to determine validity.

Results: The free listing and card sorting exercise produced a set of 60 screening items. Of the items in this set, we identified the 10 items that most accurately classified cases and non-cases. This 10-item scale had a sensitivity of 100.0 and specificity of 81.2. This compared to 90.0, 31.5 and 90.0, 49.7 for the EPDS and the PHQ-9, respectively. Overall, we found a prevalence of depression of 5.2 percent.

Conclusions: The new scale does very well in terms of diagnostic validity, having the highest scores in this domain compared to the EPDS, EPDS-R and PHQ-9. The adapted scale does very well with regards to convergent validity-illustrating clear distinction between mean scores across the different categories. It does well with regards to discriminant validity, internal consistency reliability, and test-retest reliability- not securing top scores in those domains but still yielding satisfactory results.

The Emergence of Access Controls in Small-Scale Fishing Commons: A Comparative Analysis of Individual Licenses and Common Property-Rights in Two Mexican Communities

Addressing global fisheries overexploitation requires better understanding of how small-scale fishing communities in developing countries limit access to fishing grounds. We analyze the performance of a system based on individual licenses and a common property-rights regime in their ability to generate incentives for self-governance and conservation of fishery resources. Using a qualitative before-after-control-impact approach, we compare two neighbouring fishing communities in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Both were initially governed by the same permit system, are situated in the same ecosystem, use similar harvesting technology, and have overharvested similar species. One community changed to a common property-right regime, enabling the emergence of access controls and avoiding overexploitation of benthic resources, while the other community, still relies on the permit system. We discuss the roles played by power, institutions, socio-historic, and biophysical factors to develop access controls. © 2012 The Author(s).

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Prayer and Depression: Women in Rural Pakistan

Background: Mental health, specifically depression, is a burden of disease in Pakistan. Religion and depression have not been studied in Pakistan currently, specially within a subset of a rural population. Methods: A secondary-data analysis was conducted using logistic regression for a non-parametrically distributed data set. The setting was in rural Pakistan, near Rawalpindi, and the sample size data was collected from the SHARE (South Asian Hub for Advocacy, Research, and Education). The measures used were the phq9 scaled for depression, prayer number, mother’s education, mother’s age, and if the mothers work. Results: This study demonstrated that there was no association between prayer and depression in this cohort. The mean prayer number between depressed and non-depressed women was 1.22 and 1.42, respectively, and a Wilcoxan rank sum test indicated that this was not significant. Conclusions: The primary finding indicates that increased frequency of prayer is not associated with a decreased rate of depression. This may be due to prayer number not being a significant enough measure. The implications of these findings stress the need for more depression intervention in rural Pakistan.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Understanding GPU programming for statistical computation: Studies in massively parallel massive mixtures

This article describes advances in statistical computation for large-scale data analysis in structured Bayesian mixture models via graphics processing unit (GPU) programming. The developments are partly motivated by computational challenges arising in fitting models of increasing heterogeneity to increasingly large datasets. An example context concerns common biological studies using high-throughput technologies generating many, very large datasets and requiring increasingly high-dimensional mixture models with large numbers of mixture components.We outline important strategies and processes for GPU computation in Bayesian simulation and optimization approaches, give examples of the benefits of GPU implementations in terms of processing speed and scale-up in ability to analyze large datasets, and provide a detailed, tutorial-style exposition that will benefit readers interested in developing GPU-based approaches in other statistical models. Novel, GPU-oriented approaches to modifying existing algorithms software design can lead to vast speed-up and, critically, enable statistical analyses that presently will not be performed due to compute time limitations in traditional computational environments. Supplementalmaterials are provided with all source code, example data, and details that will enable readers to implement and explore the GPU approach in this mixture modeling context. © 2010 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

Hippocampus shape analysis and late-life depression.

Major depression in the elderly is associated with brain structural changes and vascular lesions. Changes in the subcortical regions of the limbic system have also been noted. Studies examining hippocampus volumetric differences in depression have shown variable results, possibly due to any volume differences being secondary to local shape changes rather than differences in the overall volume. Shape analysis offers the potential to detect such changes. The present study applied spherical harmonic (SPHARM) shape analysis to the left and right hippocampi of 61 elderly subjects with major depression and 43 non-depressed elderly subjects. Statistical models controlling for age, sex, and total cerebral volume showed a significant reduction in depressed compared with control subjects in the left hippocampus (F(1,103) = 5.26; p = 0.0240) but not right hippocampus volume (F(1,103) = 0.41; p = 0.5213). Shape analysis showed significant differences in the mid-body of the left (but not the right) hippocampus between depressed and controls. When the depressed group was dichotomized into those whose depression was remitted at time of imaging and those who were unremitted, the shape comparison showed remitted subjects to be indistinguishable from controls (both sides) while the unremitted subjects differed in the midbody and the lateral side near the head. Hippocampal volume showed no difference between controls and remitted subjects but nonremitted subjects had significantly smaller left hippocampal volumes with no significant group differences in the right hippocampus. These findings may provide support to other reports of neurogenic effects of antidepressants and their relation to successful treatment for depressive symptoms.

Biological and ecological mechanisms supporting marine self-governance: The Seri Callo de Hacha Fishery in Mexico

My goal was to describe how biological and ecological factors give shape to fishing practices that can contribute to the successful self-governance of a small-scale fishing system in the Gulf of California, Mexico. The analysis was based on a comparison of the main ecological and biological indicators that fishers claim to use to govern their day-to-day decision making about fishing and data collected in situ. I found that certain indicators allow fishers to learn about differences and characteristics of the resource system and its units. Fishers use such information to guide their day-to-day fishing decisions. More importantly, these decisions appear unable to shape the reproductive viability of the fishery because no indicators were correlated to the reproductive cycle of the target species. As a result, the fishing practices constitute a number of mechanisms that might provide short-term buffering capacity against perturbations or stress factors that otherwise would threaten the overall sustainability and self-governance of the system. The particular biological circumstances that shape the harvesting practices might also act as a precursor of self-governance because they provide fishers with enough incentives to meet the costs of organizing the necessary rule structure that underlies a successful self-governance system.

The neural basis of naming impairments in Alzheimer's disease revealed through positron emission tomography.

The naming impairments in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been attributed to a variety of cognitive processing deficits, including impairments in semantic memory, visual perception, and lexical access. To further understand the underlying biological basis of the naming failures in AD, the present investigation examined the relationship of various classes of naming errors to regional brain measures of cerebral glucose metabolism as measured with 18 F-Fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) and positron emission tomography (PET). Errors committed on a visual naming test were categorized according to a cognitive processing schema and then examined in relationship to metabolism within specific brain regions. The results revealed an association of semantic errors with glucose metabolism in the frontal and temporal regions. Language access errors, such as circumlocutions, and word blocking nonresponses were associated with decreased metabolism in areas within the left hemisphere. Visuoperceptive errors were related to right inferior parietal metabolic function. The findings suggest that specific brain areas mediate the perceptual, semantic, and lexical processing demands of visual naming and that visual naming problems in dementia are related to dysfunction in specific neural circuits.