Essays on Energy Economics and Industrial Organization

The dissertation consists of three chapters related to the low-price guarantee marketing strategy and energy efficiency analysis. The low-price guarantee is a marketing strategy in which firms promise to charge consumers the lowest price among their competitors. Chapter 1 addresses the research question "Does a Low-Price Guarantee Induce Lower Prices'' by looking into the retail gasoline industry in Quebec where there was a major branded firm which started a low-price guarantee back in 1996. Chapter 2 does a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to drive police indications and offers a new explanation of the firms' incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Chapter 3 develops the energy performance indicators (EPIs) to measure energy efficiency of the manufacturing plants in pulp, paper and paperboard industry.

Chapter 1 revisits the traditional view that a low-price guarantee results in higher prices by facilitating collusion. Using accurate market definitions and station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I conducted a descriptive analysis based on stations and price zones to compare the price and sales movement before and after the guarantee was adopted. I find that, contrary to the traditional view, the stores that offered the guarantee significantly decreased their prices and increased their sales. I also build a difference-in-difference model to quantify the decrease in posted price of the stores that offered the guarantee to be 0.7 cents per liter. While this change is significant, I do not find the response in comeptitors' prices to be significant. The sales of the stores that offered the guarantee increased significantly while the competitors' sales decreased significantly. However, the significance vanishes if I use the station clustered standard errors. Comparing my observations and the predictions of different theories of modeling low-price guarantees, I conclude the empirical evidence here supports that the low-price guarantee is a simple commitment device and induces lower prices.

Chapter 2 conducts a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to address the antitrust concerns and potential regulations from the government; explains the firms' potential incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Using station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I estimated consumers' demand of gasoline by a structural model with spatial competition incorporating the low-price guarantee as a commitment device, which allows firms to pre-commit to charge the lowest price among their competitors. The counterfactual analysis under the Bertrand competition setting shows that the stores that offered the guarantee attracted a lot more consumers and decreased their posted price by 0.6 cents per liter. Although the matching stores suffered a decrease in profits from gasoline sales, they are incentivized to adopt the low-price guarantee to attract more consumers to visit the store likely increasing profits at attached convenience stores. Firms have strong incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee on the product that their consumers are most price-sensitive about, while earning a profit from the products that are not covered in the guarantee. I estimate that consumers earn about 0.3% more surplus when the low-price guarantee is in place, which suggests that the authorities should not be concerned and regulate low-price guarantees. In Appendix B, I also propose an empirical model to look into how low-price guarantees would change consumer search behavior and whether consumer search plays an important role in estimating consumer surplus accurately.

Chapter 3, joint with Gale Boyd, describes work with the pulp, paper, and paperboard (PP&PB) industry to provide a plant-level indicator of energy efficiency for facilities that produce various types of paper products in the United States. Organizations that implement strategic energy management programs undertake a set of activities that, if carried out properly, have the potential to deliver sustained energy savings. Energy performance benchmarking is a key activity of strategic energy management and one way to enable companies to set energy efficiency targets for manufacturing facilities. The opportunity to assess plant energy performance through a comparison with similar plants in its industry is a highly desirable and strategic method of benchmarking for industrial energy managers. However, access to energy performance data for conducting industry benchmarking is usually unavailable to most industrial energy managers. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), through its ENERGY STAR program, seeks to overcome this barrier through the development of manufacturing sector-based plant energy performance indicators (EPIs) that encourage U.S. industries to use energy more efficiently. In the development of the energy performance indicator tools, consideration is given to the role that performance-based indicators play in motivating change; the steps necessary for indicator development, from interacting with an industry in securing adequate data for the indicator; and actual application and use of an indicator when complete. How indicators are employed in EPA’s efforts to encourage industries to voluntarily improve their use of energy is discussed as well. The chapter describes the data and statistical methods used to construct the EPI for plants within selected segments of the pulp, paper, and paperboard industry: specifically pulp mills and integrated paper & paperboard mills. The individual equations are presented, as are the instructions for using those equations as implemented in an associated Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet tool.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

The increasing impact of human immunodeficiency virus infections, sexually transmitted diseases, and viral hepatitis in Durham County, North Carolina: a call for coordinated and integrated services.

BACKGROUND: Durham County, North Carolina, faces high rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (with or without progression to AIDS) and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). We explored the use of health care services and the prevalence of coinfections, among HIV-infected residents, and we recorded community perspectives on HIV-related issues. METHODS: We evaluated data on diagnostic codes, outpatient visits, and hospitalizations for individuals with HIV infection, STDs, and/or hepatitis B or C who visited Duke University Hospital System (DUHS). Viral loads for HIV-infected patients receiving care were estimated for 2009. We conducted geospatial mapping to determine disease trends and used focus groups and key informant interviews to identify barriers and solutions to improving testing and care. RESULTS: We identified substantial increases in HIV/STDs in the southern regions of the county. During the 5-year period, 1,291 adults with HIV infection, 4,245 with STDs, and 2,182 with hepatitis B or C were evaluated at DUHS. Among HIV-infected persons, 13.9% and 21.8% were coinfected with an STD or hepatitis B or C, respectively. In 2009, 65.7% of HIV-infected persons receiving care had undetectable viral loads. Barriers to testing included stigma, fear, and denial of risk, while treatment barriers included costs, transportation, and low medical literacy. LIMITATIONS: Data for health care utilization and HIV load were available from different periods. Focus groups were conducted among a convenience sample, but they represented a diverse population. CONCLUSIONS: Durham County has experienced an increase in the number of HIV-infected persons in the county, and coinfections with STDs and hepatitis B or C are common. Multiple barriers to testing/treatment exist in the community. Coordinated care models are needed to improve access to HIV care and to reduce testing and treatment barriers.

Inner speech and bilingual autobiographical memory: a Polish-Danish cross-cultural study.

Thirty years after fleeing from Poland to Denmark, 20 immigrants were enlisted in a study of bilingual autobiographical memory. Ten "early immigrators" averaged 24 years old at the time of immigration, and ten "late immigrators" averaged 34 years old at immigration. Although all 20 had spent 30 years in Denmark, early immigrators reported more current inner speech behaviours in Danish, whereas late immigrators showed more use of Polish. Both groups displayed proportionally more numerous autobiographical retrievals that were reported as coming to them internally in Polish (vs Danish) for the decades prior to immigration and more in Danish (vs Polish) after immigration. We propose a culture- and language-specific shaping of semantic and conceptual stores that underpins autobiographical and world knowledge.

Atherosclerosis: Viewing the problem from a different perspective including possible treatment options

This paper proposes that atherosclerosis is initiated by a signaling event that deposits calcium hydroxyapatite (Ca-HAP). This event is preceded by a loss of mechanical structure in the arterial wall. After Ca-HAP has been deposited, it is unlikely that it will be reabsorbed because the solubility product constant (K sp) is very small, and the large stores of Ca +2 and PO 4-3 in the bones oppose any attempts to dissolve Ca-HAP by decreasing the common ions. The hydroxide ion (OH -) of Ca-HAP can be displaced in nature by fluoride (F -) and carbonate (CO 3-2) ions, and it is proposed that anions associated with cholesterol ester hydrolysis and, in very small quantities, the enolate of 7-ketocholesterol could also displace the OH -of Ca-HAP, forming an ionic bond. The free energy of hydration of Ca-HAP at 310 K is most likely negative, and the ionic radii of the anions associated with the hydrolysis of cholesterol ester are compatible with the substitution. Furthermore, examination of the pathology of atherosclerotic lesions by Raman and NMR spectroscopy and confocal microscopy supports deposition of Ca-HAP associated with cholesterol. Investigating the affinity of intermediates of cholesterol hydrolysis for Ca-HAP compared to lipoproteins such as HDL, LDL, and VLDL using isothermic titration calorimetry could add proof of this concept and may lead to the development of a new class of medications targeted at the deposition of cholesterol within Ca-HAP. Treatment of acute ischemic events as a consequence of atherosclerosis with denitrogenation and oxygenation is discussed. © the author(s), publisher and licensee Libertas Academica Ltd.

Recruiting young adults into a weight loss trial: report of protocol development and recruitment results.

Obesity has spread to all segments of the U.S. population. Young adults, aged 18-35 years, are rarely represented in clinical weight loss trials. We conducted a qualitative study to identify factors that may facilitate recruitment of young adults into a weight loss intervention trial. Participants were 33 adults aged 18-35 years with BMI ≥25 kg/m(2). Six group discussions were conducted using the nominal group technique. Health, social image, and "self" factors such as emotions, self-esteem, and confidence were reported as reasons to pursue weight loss. Physical activity, dietary intake, social support, medical intervention, and taking control (e.g. being motivated) were perceived as the best weight loss strategies. Incentives, positive outcomes, education, convenience, and social support were endorsed as reasons young adults would consider participating in a weight loss study. Incentives, advertisement, emphasizing benefits, and convenience were endorsed as ways to recruit young adults. These results informed the Cellphone Intervention for You (CITY) marketing and advertising, including message framing and advertising avenues. Implications for recruitment methods are discussed.

Optical-CT 3D Dosimetry Using Fresnel Lenses with Minimal Refractive-Index Matching Fluid.

Telecentric optical computed tomography (optical-CT) is a state-of-the-art method for visualizing and quantifying 3-dimensional dose distributions in radiochromic dosimeters. In this work a prototype telecentric system (DFOS-Duke Fresnel Optical-CT Scanner) is evaluated which incorporates two substantial design changes: the use of Fresnel lenses (reducing lens costs from $10-30K t0 $1-3K) and the use of a 'solid tank' (which reduces noise, and the volume of refractively matched fluid from 1 ltr to 10 cc). The efficacy of DFOS was evaluated by direct comparison against commissioned scanners in our lab. Measured dose distributions from all systems were compared against the predicted dose distributions from a commissioned treatment planning system (TPS). Three treatment plans were investigated including a simple four-field box treatment, a multiple small field delivery, and a complex IMRT treatment. Dosimeters were imaged within 2 h post irradiation, using consistent scanning techniques (360 projections acquired at 1 degree intervals, reconstruction at 2mm). DFOS efficacy was evaluated through inspection of dose line-profiles, and 2D and 3D dose and gamma maps. DFOS/TPS gamma pass rates with 3%/3mm dose difference/distance-to-agreement criteria ranged from 89.3% to 92.2%, compared to from 95.6% to 99.0% obtained with the commissioned system. The 3D gamma pass rate between the commissioned system and DFOS was 98.2%. The typical noise rates in DFOS reconstructions were up to 3%, compared to under 2% for the commissioned system. In conclusion, while the introduction of a solid tank proved advantageous with regards to cost and convenience, further work is required to improve the image quality and dose reconstruction accuracy of the new DFOS optical-CT system.