Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Conservation, duplication, and loss of the Tor signaling pathway in the fungal kingdom.

BACKGROUND: The nutrient-sensing Tor pathway governs cell growth and is conserved in nearly all eukaryotic organisms from unicellular yeasts to multicellular organisms, including humans. Tor is the target of the immunosuppressive drug rapamycin, which in complex with the prolyl isomerase FKBP12 inhibits Tor functions. Rapamycin is a gold standard drug for organ transplant recipients that was approved by the FDA in 1999 and is finding additional clinical indications as a chemotherapeutic and antiproliferative agent. Capitalizing on the plethora of recently sequenced genomes we have conducted comparative genomic studies to annotate the Tor pathway throughout the fungal kingdom and related unicellular opisthokonts, including Monosiga brevicollis, Salpingoeca rosetta, and Capsaspora owczarzaki. RESULTS: Interestingly, the Tor signaling cascade is absent in three microsporidian species with available genome sequences, the only known instance of a eukaryotic group lacking this conserved pathway. The microsporidia are obligate intracellular pathogens with highly reduced genomes, and we hypothesize that they lost the Tor pathway as they adapted and streamlined their genomes for intracellular growth in a nutrient-rich environment. Two TOR paralogs are present in several fungal species as a result of either a whole genome duplication or independent gene/segmental duplication events. One such event was identified in the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a chytrid responsible for worldwide global amphibian declines and extinctions. CONCLUSIONS: The repeated independent duplications of the TOR gene in the fungal kingdom might reflect selective pressure acting upon this kinase that populates two proteinaceous complexes with different cellular roles. These comparative genomic analyses illustrate the evolutionary trajectory of a central nutrient-sensing cascade that enables diverse eukaryotic organisms to respond to their natural environments.

Use of "entertainment" chimpanzees in commercials distorts public perception regarding their conservation status.

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) are often used in movies, commercials and print advertisements with the intention of eliciting a humorous response from audiences. The portrayal of chimpanzees in unnatural, human-like situations may have a negative effect on the public's understanding of their endangered status in the wild while making them appear as suitable pets. Alternatively, media content that elicits a positive emotional response toward chimpanzees may increase the public's commitment to chimpanzee conservation. To test these competing hypotheses, participants (n = 165) watched a series of commercials in an experiment framed as a marketing study. Imbedded within the same series of commercials was one of three chimpanzee videos. Participants either watched 1) a chimpanzee conservation commercial, 2) commercials containing "entertainment" chimpanzees or 3) control footage of the natural behavior of wild chimpanzees. Results from a post-viewing questionnaire reveal that participants who watched the conservation message understood that chimpanzees were endangered and unsuitable as pets at higher levels than those viewing the control footage. Meanwhile participants watching commercials with entertainment chimpanzees showed a decrease in understanding relative to those watching the control footage. In addition, when participants were given the opportunity to donate part of their earnings from the experiment to a conservation charity, donations were least frequent in the group watching commercials with entertainment chimpanzees. Control questions show that participants did not detect the purpose of the study. These results firmly support the hypothesis that use of entertainment chimpanzees in the popular media negatively distorts the public's perception and hinders chimpanzee conservation efforts.

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

Systematic review and metasummary of attitudes toward research in emergency medical conditions

Emergency departments are challenging research settings, where truly informed consent can be difficult to obtain. A deeper understanding of emergency medical patients' opinions about research is needed. We conducted a systematic review and meta-summary of quantitative and qualitative studies on which values, attitudes, or beliefs of emergent medical research participants influence research participation. We included studies of adults that investigated opinions toward emergency medicine research participation. We excluded studies focused on the association between demographics or consent document features and participation and those focused on non-emergency research. In August 2011, we searched the following databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Google Scholar, Scirus, PsycINFO, AgeLine and Global Health. Titles, abstracts and then full manuscripts were independently evaluated by two reviewers. Disagreements were resolved by consensus and adjudicated by a third author. Studies were evaluated for bias using standardised scores. We report themes associated with participation or refusal. Our initial search produced over 1800 articles. A total of 44 articles were extracted for full-manuscript analysis, and 14 were retained based on our eligibility criteria. Among factors favouring participation, altruism and personal health benefit had the highest frequency. Mistrust of researchers, feeling like a 'guinea pig' and risk were leading factors favouring refusal. Many studies noted limitations of informed consent processes in emergent conditions. We conclude that highlighting the benefits to the participant and society, mitigating risk and increasing public trust may increase research participation in emergency medical research. New methods for conducting informed consent in such studies are needed.