Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

A Molecular-scale Programmable Stochastic Process Based On Resonance Energy Transfer Networks: Modeling And Applications

While molecular and cellular processes are often modeled as stochastic processes, such as Brownian motion, chemical reaction networks and gene regulatory networks, there are few attempts to program a molecular-scale process to physically implement stochastic processes. DNA has been used as a substrate for programming molecular interactions, but its applications are restricted to deterministic functions and unfavorable properties such as slow processing, thermal annealing, aqueous solvents and difficult readout limit them to proof-of-concept purposes. To date, whether there exists a molecular process that can be programmed to implement stochastic processes for practical applications remains unknown.

In this dissertation, a fully specified Resonance Energy Transfer (RET) network between chromophores is accurately fabricated via DNA self-assembly, and the exciton dynamics in the RET network physically implement a stochastic process, specifically a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), which has a direct mapping to the physical geometry of the chromophore network. Excited by a light source, a RET network generates random samples in the temporal domain in the form of fluorescence photons which can be detected by a photon detector. The intrinsic sampling distribution of a RET network is derived as a phase-type distribution configured by its CTMC model. The conclusion is that the exciton dynamics in a RET network implement a general and important class of stochastic processes that can be directly and accurately programmed and used for practical applications of photonics and optoelectronics. Different approaches to using RET networks exist with vast potential applications. As an entropy source that can directly generate samples from virtually arbitrary distributions, RET networks can benefit applications that rely on generating random samples such as 1) fluorescent taggants and 2) stochastic computing.

By using RET networks between chromophores to implement fluorescent taggants with temporally coded signatures, the taggant design is not constrained by resolvable dyes and has a significantly larger coding capacity than spectrally or lifetime coded fluorescent taggants. Meanwhile, the taggant detection process becomes highly efficient, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) based taggant identification guarantees high accuracy even with only a few hundred detected photons.

Meanwhile, RET-based sampling units (RSU) can be constructed to accelerate probabilistic algorithms for wide applications in machine learning and data analytics. Because probabilistic algorithms often rely on iteratively sampling from parameterized distributions, they can be inefficient in practice on the deterministic hardware traditional computers use, especially for high-dimensional and complex problems. As an efficient universal sampling unit, the proposed RSU can be integrated into a processor / GPU as specialized functional units or organized as a discrete accelerator to bring substantial speedups and power savings.

Algorithms for Geometric Matching, Clustering, and Covering

With the popularization of GPS-enabled devices such as mobile phones, location data are becoming available at an unprecedented scale. The locations may be collected from many different sources such as vehicles moving around a city, user check-ins in social networks, and geo-tagged micro-blogging photos or messages. Besides the longitude and latitude, each location record may also have a timestamp and additional information such as the name of the location. Time-ordered sequences of these locations form trajectories, which together contain useful high-level information about people's movement patterns.

The first part of this thesis focuses on a few geometric problems motivated by the matching and clustering of trajectories. We first give a new algorithm for computing a matching between a pair of curves under existing models such as dynamic time warping (DTW). The algorithm is more efficient than standard dynamic programming algorithms both theoretically and practically. We then propose a new matching model for trajectories that avoids the drawbacks of existing models. For trajectory clustering, we present an algorithm that computes clusters of subtrajectories, which correspond to common movement patterns. We also consider trajectories of check-ins, and propose a statistical generative model, which identifies check-in clusters as well as the transition patterns between the clusters.

The second part of the thesis considers the problem of covering shortest paths in a road network, motivated by an EV charging station placement problem. More specifically, a subset of vertices in the road network are selected to place charging stations so that every shortest path contains enough charging stations and can be traveled by an EV without draining the battery. We first introduce a general technique for the geometric set cover problem. This technique leads to near-linear-time approximation algorithms, which are the state-of-the-art algorithms for this problem in either running time or approximation ratio. We then use this technique to develop a near-linear-time algorithm for this

shortest-path cover problem.