Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.

Essays in Firm Responses to Demand and Competition Shocks

The aim of this dissertation is to examine, model and estimate firm responses to

demand shocks by focusing on specific industries where demand shocks are well

identified. Combining reduced-form evidence and structural analysis, this dissertation

extends the economic literature by focusing on within-firm responses of firms

to two important demand shocks that are identifiable in empirical settings. First,

I focus on how firms respond to a decrease in effective demand due to competition

shocks coming from globalization. By considering China's accession to the World

Trade Organization in 2001 and its impact on the apparel industry, the aim of these

chapters is to answer how firms react to the increase in Chinese import competition,

what is the mechanism behind these responses, and how important they are in explaining

the survival of the Peruvian apparel industry. Second, I study how suppliers'

survival probability relates to the sudden disruption of their main customer-supplier

relationships with downstream manufacturers, conditional on suppliers' own idiosyncratic

characteristics such as physical productivity.

A genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility variants for type 2 diabetes in Han Chinese.

To investigate the underlying mechanisms of T2D pathogenesis, we looked for diabetes susceptibility genes that increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a Han Chinese population. A two-stage genome-wide association (GWA) study was conducted, in which 995 patients and 894 controls were genotyped using the Illumina HumanHap550-Duo BeadChip for the first genome scan stage. This was further replicated in 1,803 patients and 1,473 controls in stage 2. We found two loci not previously associated with diabetes susceptibility in and around the genes protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type D (PTPRD) (P = 8.54x10(-10); odds ratio [OR] = 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36-1.82), and serine racemase (SRR) (P = 3.06x10(-9); OR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.18-1.39). We also confirmed that variants in KCNQ1 were associated with T2D risk, with the strongest signal at rs2237895 (P = 9.65x10(-10); OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.19-1.40). By identifying two novel genetic susceptibility loci in a Han Chinese population and confirming the involvement of KCNQ1, which was previously reported to be associated with T2D in Japanese and European descent populations, our results may lead to a better understanding of differences in the molecular pathogenesis of T2D among various populations.

Polymorphisms in the kinesin-like factor 1 B gene and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in Eastern Chinese women.

The kinesin-like factor 1 B (KIF1B) gene plays an important role in the process of apoptosis and the transformation and progression of malignant cells. Genetic variations in KIF1B may contribute to risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). In this study of 1,324 EOC patients and 1,386 cancer-free female controls, we investigated associations between two potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms in KIF1B and EOC risk by the conditional logistic regression analysis. General linear regression model was used to evaluate the correlation between the number of variant alleles and KIF1B mRNA expression levels. We found that the rs17401966 variant AG/GG genotypes were significantly associated with a decreased risk of EOC (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.68-0.97), compared with the AA genotype, but no associations were observed for rs1002076. Women who carried both rs17401966 AG/GG and rs1002076 AG/AA genotypes of KIF1B had a 0.82-fold decreased risk (adjusted 95 % CI = 0.69-0.97), compared with others. Additionally, there was no evidence of possible interactions between about-mentioned co-variants. Further genotype-phenotype correlation analysis indicated that the number of rs17401966 variant G allele was significantly associated with KIF1B mRNA expression levels (P for GLM = 0.003 and 0.001 in all and Chinese subjects, respectively), with GG carriers having the lowest level of KIF1B mRNA expression. Taken together, the rs17401966 polymorphism likely regulates KIF1B mRNA expression and thus may be associated with EOC risk in Eastern Chinese women. Larger, independent studies are warranted to validate our findings.

A Comparative Study of the Chinese Trickster Hero Sun Wukong

Sun Wukong is a fictional hero from the Chinese classic The Journey to the West. As a well-known trickster, Wukong has a lot of similarities with several other tricksters around the world. In order to analyze him, I try to explain both his similarities with, and differences from, other tricksters, especially in the Ancient Greek folklore and myth traditions. The first half of the paper focuses on the general characteristics of tricksters. As a very distinctive group in global mythology, tricksters have particular features. The definition and symbolization of tricksters are illustrated by comparing Wukong and major Greek tricksters, such as Hermes, Odysseus, and Prometheus. The second part of the paper is concentrated on the heroic features of tricksters and the cultural values reflected in the Wukong narrative. How tricksters become cultural heroes is the main theme of Chapter Three. I explain their evolution by elaborating on the change in their nature mentioned in the second chapter. The fourth chapter illustrates the reason why Wukong is an East Asian cultural hero.I explore the personalities of Wukong and see how they fit the dominant philosophy and cultural values of the region. The last chapter briefly shows how popular Wukong is in Chinese and the entire East Asian culture.

Serum cholesterol levels within the high normal range are associated with better cognitive performance among Chinese elderly

© 2016, Serdi and Springer-Verlag France.Objectives: The association between cognitive function and cholesterol levels is poorly understood and inconsistent results exist among the elderly. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of cholesterol level with cognitive performance among Chinese elderly. Design: A cross-sectional study was implemented in 2012 and data were analyzed using generalized additive models, linear regression models and logistic regression models. Setting: Community-based setting in eight longevity areas in China. Subjects: A total of 2000 elderly aged 65 years and over (mean 85.8±12.0 years) participated in this study. Measurements: Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration were determined and cognitive impairment was defined as Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score≤23. Results: There was a significant positive linear association between TC, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C and MMSE score in linear regression models. Each 1 mmol/L increase in TC, TG, LDL-C and HDL-C corresponded to a decreased risk of cognitive impairment in logistic regression models. Compared with the lowest tertile, the highest tertile of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C had a lower risk of cognitive impairment. The adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI were 0.73(0.62–0.84) for TC, 0.81(0.70–0.94) for LDL-C and 0.81(0.70–0.94) for HDL-C. There was no gender difference in the protective effects of high TC and LDL-C levels on cognitive impairment. However, for high HDL-C levels the effect was only observed in women. High TC, LDL-C and HDL-C levels were associated with lower risk of cognitive impairment in the oldest old (aged 80 and older), but not in the younger elderly (aged 65 to 79 years). Conclusions: These findings suggest that cholesterol levels within the high normal range are associated with better cognitive performance in Chinese elderly, specifically in the oldest old. With further validation, low cholesterol may serve a clinical indicator of risk for cognitive impairment in the elderly.