Is Rapid Adaptation to New Environments Fueled by Old Mutations? A Case Study of Copper Tolerance on Mimulus guttatus

Rapid adaptation and tolerance is a phenomenon experienced by a variety of organisms typically because of new and harsh environments. Mimulus guttatus, a plant commonly seen on the west coast of the United States, is a prime example as it has rapidly evolved to soil contamination by copper due to mining in California in the last 150 years. There have been two hypotheses posed by researchers as to the genetic basis of how organisms have evolved so quickly which I set out to study: 1) There is a low frequency of tolerant genotypes in the ancestral population otherwise known as standing variation or 2) new mutations occurred once exposed to a new environment. In the past, researchers found it difficult to distinguish between the two because they lacked the technology we have today for DNA analysis. I used four different populations of M. guttatus from varying locations in order to address which hypothesis was valid. I conducted both survival assays of these populations and DNA analysis of known tolerant and non-tolerant lines using a copper oxidase gene. I found that there was at least some degree of tolerance in all populations in the survival assays, supporting the hypothesis of standing variation. I also found patterns within DNA analysis suggesting the copper oxidase gene would be useful for further study to verify the standing variation hypothesis. The results from this experiment helps in understanding rapid evolution not just in the context of soil contamination by metals but also ties back to why an alarming number of species are not able to adapt to our constantly changing world.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

A systematic approach to institutional analysis: Applying Crawford and Ostrom's grammar

In 1995, Crawford and Ostrom proposed a grammatical syntax for examining institutional statements (i.e., rules, norms, and strategies) as part of the institutional analysis and development framework. This article constitutes the first attempt at applying the grammatical syntax to code institutional statements using two pieces of U.S. legislation. The authors illustrate how the grammatical syntax can serve as a basis for collecting, presenting, and analyzing data in a way that is reliable and conveys valid and substantive meaning for the researcher. The article concludes by describing some implementation challenges and ideas for future theoretical and field research. © 2010 University of Utah.

Thermodynamic analysis of ligand-induced changes in protein thermal unfolding applied to high-throughput determination of ligand affinities with extrinsic fluorescent dyes.

The quantification of protein-ligand interactions is essential for systems biology, drug discovery, and bioengineering. Ligand-induced changes in protein thermal stability provide a general, quantifiable signature of binding and may be monitored with dyes such as Sypro Orange (SO), which increase their fluorescence emission intensities upon interaction with the unfolded protein. This method is an experimentally straightforward, economical, and high-throughput approach for observing thermal melts using commonly available real-time polymerase chain reaction instrumentation. However, quantitative analysis requires careful consideration of the dye-mediated reporting mechanism and the underlying thermodynamic model. We determine affinity constants by analysis of ligand-mediated shifts in melting-temperature midpoint values. Ligand affinity is determined in a ligand titration series from shifts in free energies of stability at a common reference temperature. Thermodynamic parameters are obtained by fitting the inverse first derivative of the experimental signal reporting on thermal denaturation with equations that incorporate linear or nonlinear baseline models. We apply these methods to fit protein melts monitored with SO that exhibit prominent nonlinear post-transition baselines. SO can perturb the equilibria on which it is reporting. We analyze cases in which the ligand binds to both the native and denatured state or to the native state only and cases in which protein:ligand stoichiometry needs to treated explicitly.

Using Image Processing Methods to Improve the Detection of Buried Explosive Threats in GPR Data

Current state of the art techniques for landmine detection in ground penetrating radar (GPR) utilize statistical methods to identify characteristics of a landmine response. This research makes use of 2-D slices of data in which subsurface landmine responses have hyperbolic shapes. Various methods from the field of visual image processing are adapted to the 2-D GPR data, producing superior landmine detection results. This research goes on to develop a physics-based GPR augmentation method motivated by current advances in visual object detection. This GPR specific augmentation is used to mitigate issues caused by insufficient training sets. This work shows that augmentation improves detection performance under training conditions that are normally very difficult. Finally, this work introduces the use of convolutional neural networks as a method to learn feature extraction parameters. These learned convolutional features outperform hand-designed features in GPR detection tasks. This work presents a number of methods, both borrowed from and motivated by the substantial work in visual image processing. The methods developed and presented in this work show an improvement in overall detection performance and introduce a method to improve the robustness of statistical classification.