Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Estimating equilibrium models of sorting across locations

While there is growing interest in measuring the size and scope of local spillovers, it is well understood that such spillovers cannot be distinguished from unobservable local attributes using solely the observed location decisions of individuals or firms. We propose an empirical strategy for recovering estimates of spillovers in the presence of unobserved local attributes for a broadly applicable class of equilibrium sorting models. Our approach relies on an IV strategy derived from the internal logic of the sorting model itself. We show practically how the strategy is implemented, provide intuition for our instruments, discuss the role of effective choice-set variation in identifying the model, and carry-out a series of Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate performance in small samples. © 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

If smoking increases absences, does quitting reduce them?

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact of smoking, quitting, and time since quit on absences from work. METHODS: Data from the nationally representative Tobacco Use Supplements of the 1992/93, 1995/96, and 1998/99 Current Population Surveys were used. The study included full time workers aged between 18-64 years, yielding a sample size of 383 778 workers. A binary indicator of absence due to sickness in the last week was analysed as a function of smoking status including time since quit for former smokers. Extensive demographic variables were included as controls in all models. RESULTS: In initial comparisons between current and former smokers, smoking increased absences, but quitting did not reduce them. However, when length of time since quit was examined, it was discovered that those who quit within the last year, and especially the last three months, had a much greater probability of absences than did current smokers. As the time since quitting increased, absences returned to a rate somewhere between that of never and current smokers. Interactions between health and smoking status significantly improved the fit of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers who quit reduced their absences over time but increase their absences immediately after quitting. Quitting ill may account for some but not all of this short run impact.

Dimensions, issues, and bills: Appropriations voting on the house floor

One of the fundamental findings in the congressional literature is that one or sometimes two dimensions can successfully describe roll-call voting. In this paper we investigate if we can reach the same conclusions about low dimensionality when we divide the roll-call agenda into subsets of relatively homogeneous subject matter. We are primarily interested in the degree to which the same ordering of representatives is yielded across these different groups of votes. To conduct our analysis we focus on all roll calls on the 13 annual appropriations bills across eight congresses. When we concentrate on these smaller issue areas, we find that voting is multidimensional and members do not vote in a consistent ideological fashion across all issue areas. Copyright © Southern Political Science Association 2010.

The cost of biopharmaceutical R&D: Is biotech different?

The costs of developing the types of new drugs that have been pursued by traditional pharmaceutical firms have been estimated in a number of studies. However, similar analyses have not been published on the costs of developing the types of molecules on which biotech firms have focused. This study represents a first attempt to get a sense for the magnitude of the R&D costs associated with the discovery and development of new therapeutic biopharmaceuticals (specifically, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies [mAbs]). We utilize drug-specific data on cash outlays, development times, and success in obtaining regulatory marketing approval to estimate the average pre-tax R&D resource cost for biopharmaceuticals up to the point of initial US marketing approval (in year 2005 dollars). We found average out-of-pocket (cash outlay) cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $198 million, $361 million, and $559 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Including the time costs associated with biopharmaceutical R&D, we found average capitalized cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $615 million, $626 million, and $1241 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Adjusting previously published estimates of R&D costs for traditional pharmaceutical firms by using past growth rates for pharmaceutical company costs to correspond to the more recent period to which our biopharmaceutical data apply, we found that total out-of-pocket cost per approved biopharmaceutical was somewhat lower than for the pharmaceutical company data ($559 million vs $672 million). However, estimated total capitalized cost per approved new molecule was nearly the same for biopharmaceuticals as for the adjusted pharmaceutical company data ($1241 million versus $1318 million). The results should be viewed with some caution for now given a limited number of biopharmaceutical molecules with data on cash outlays, different therapeutic class distributions for biopharmaceuticals and for pharmaceutical company drugs, and uncertainty about whether recent growth rates in pharmaceutical company costs are different from immediate past growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Entry and competition in generic biologics

Patents for several blockbuster biological products are expected to expire soon. The Food and Drug Administration is examining whether biologies can and should be treated like pharmaceuticals with regard to generics. In contrast with pharmaceuticals, which are manufactured through chemical synthesis, biologies are manufactured through fermentation, a process that is more variable and costly. Regulators might require extensive clinical testing of generic biologies to demonstrate equivalence to the branded product. The focus of the debate on generic biologies has been on legal and health concerns, but there are important economic implications. We combine a theoretical model of generic biologies with regression estimates from generic pharmaceuticals to estimate market entry and prices in the generic biologic market. We find that generic biologies will have high fixed costs from clinical testing and from manufacturing, so there will be less entry than would be expected for generic pharmaceuticals. With fewer generic competitors, generic biologies will be relatively close in price to branded biologies. Policy makers should be prudent in estimating financial benefits of generic biologies for consumers and payers. We also examine possible government strategies to promote generic competition. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energy recovery in individuals with knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Pathological gaits have been shown to limit transfer between potential (PE) and kinetic (KE) energy during walking, which can increase locomotor costs. The purpose of this study was to examine whether energy exchange would be limited in people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Ground reaction forces during walking were collected from 93 subjects with symptomatic knee OA (self-selected and fast speeds) and 13 healthy controls (self-selected speed) and used to calculate their center of mass (COM) movements, PE and KE relationships, and energy recovery during a stride. Correlations and linear regressions examined the impact of energy fluctuation phase and amplitude, walking velocity, body mass, self-reported pain, and radiographic severity on recovery. Paired t-tests were run to compare energy recovery between cohorts. RESULTS: Symptomatic knee OA subjects displayed lower energetic recovery during self-selected walking speeds than healthy controls (P = 0.0018). PE and KE phase relationships explained the majority (66%) of variance in recovery. Recovery had a complex relationship with velocity and its change across speeds was significantly influenced by the self-selected walking speed of each subject. Neither radiographic OA scores nor subject self-reported measures demonstrated any relationship with energy recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Knee OA reduces effective exchange of PE and KE, potentially increasing the muscular work required to control movements of the COM. Gait retraining may return subjects to more normal patterns of energy exchange and allow them to reduce fatigue.

Adaptive temporal compressive sensing for video

This paper introduces the concept of adaptive temporal compressive sensing (CS) for video. We propose a CS algorithm to adapt the compression ratio based on the scene's temporal complexity, computed from the compressed data, without compromising the quality of the reconstructed video. The temporal adaptivity is manifested by manipulating the integration time of the camera, opening the possibility to realtime implementation. The proposed algorithm is a generalized temporal CS approach that can be incorporated with a diverse set of existing hardware systems. © 2013 IEEE.

POCS-based reconstruction of multiplexed sensitivity encoded MRI (POCSMUSE): A general algorithm for reducing motion-related artifacts.

PURPOSE: A projection onto convex sets reconstruction of multiplexed sensitivity encoded MRI (POCSMUSE) is developed to reduce motion-related artifacts, including respiration artifacts in abdominal imaging and aliasing artifacts in interleaved diffusion-weighted imaging. THEORY: Images with reduced artifacts are reconstructed with an iterative projection onto convex sets (POCS) procedure that uses the coil sensitivity profile as a constraint. This method can be applied to data obtained with different pulse sequences and k-space trajectories. In addition, various constraints can be incorporated to stabilize the reconstruction of ill-conditioned matrices. METHODS: The POCSMUSE technique was applied to abdominal fast spin-echo imaging data, and its effectiveness in respiratory-triggered scans was evaluated. The POCSMUSE method was also applied to reduce aliasing artifacts due to shot-to-shot phase variations in interleaved diffusion-weighted imaging data corresponding to different k-space trajectories and matrix condition numbers. RESULTS: Experimental results show that the POCSMUSE technique can effectively reduce motion-related artifacts in data obtained with different pulse sequences, k-space trajectories and contrasts. CONCLUSION: POCSMUSE is a general post-processing algorithm for reduction of motion-related artifacts. It is compatible with different pulse sequences, and can also be used to further reduce residual artifacts in data produced by existing motion artifact reduction methods.

Delay activity of saccade-related neurons in the caudal dentate nucleus of the macaque cerebellum.

The caudal dentate nucleus (DN) in lateral cerebellum is connected with two visual/oculomotor areas of the cerebrum: the frontal eye field and lateral intraparietal cortex. Many neurons in frontal eye field and lateral intraparietal cortex produce "delay activity" between stimulus and response that correlates with processes such as motor planning. Our hypothesis was that caudal DN neurons would have prominent delay activity as well. From lesion studies, we predicted that this activity would be related to self-timing, i.e., the triggering of saccades based on the internal monitoring of time. We recorded from neurons in the caudal DN of monkeys (Macaca mulatta) that made delayed saccades with or without a self-timing requirement. Most (84%) of the caudal DN neurons had delay activity. These neurons conveyed at least three types of information. First, their activity was often correlated, trial by trial, with saccade initiation. Correlations were found more frequently in a task that required self-timing of saccades (53% of neurons) than in a task that did not (27% of neurons). Second, the delay activity was often tuned for saccade direction (in 65% of neurons). This tuning emerged continuously during a trial. Third, the time course of delay activity associated with self-timed saccades differed significantly from that associated with visually guided saccades (in 71% of neurons). A minority of neurons had sensory-related activity. None had presaccadic bursts, in contrast to DN neurons recorded more rostrally. We conclude that caudal DN neurons convey saccade-related delay activity that may contribute to the motor preparation of when and where to move.

Division of labor in frontal eye field neurons during presaccadic remapping of visual receptive fields.

Our percept of visual stability across saccadic eye movements may be mediated by presaccadic remapping. Just before a saccade, neurons that remap become visually responsive at a future field (FF), which anticipates the saccade vector. Hence, the neurons use corollary discharge of saccades. Many of the neurons also decrease their response at the receptive field (RF). Presaccadic remapping occurs in several brain areas including the frontal eye field (FEF), which receives corollary discharge of saccades in its layer IV from a collicular-thalamic pathway. We studied, at two levels, the microcircuitry of remapping in the FEF. At the laminar level, we compared remapping between layers IV and V. At the cellular level, we compared remapping between different neuron types of layer IV. In the FEF in four monkeys (Macaca mulatta), we identified 27 layer IV neurons with orthodromic stimulation and 57 layer V neurons with antidromic stimulation from the superior colliculus. With the use of established criteria, we classified the layer IV neurons as putative excitatory (n = 11), putative inhibitory (n = 12), or ambiguous (n = 4). We found that just before a saccade, putative excitatory neurons increased their visual response at the RF, putative inhibitory neurons showed no change, and ambiguous neurons increased their visual response at the FF. None of the neurons showed presaccadic visual changes at both RF and FF. In contrast, neurons in layer V showed full remapping (at both the RF and FF). Our data suggest that elemental signals for remapping are distributed across neuron types in early cortical processing and combined in later stages of cortical microcircuitry.

Dynamics of visual receptive fields in the macaque frontal eye field.

Neuronal receptive fields (RFs) provide the foundation for understanding systems-level sensory processing. In early visual areas, investigators have mapped RFs in detail using stochastic stimuli and sophisticated analytical approaches. Much less is known about RFs in prefrontal cortex. Visual stimuli used for mapping RFs in prefrontal cortex tend to cover a small range of spatial and temporal parameters, making it difficult to understand their role in visual processing. To address these shortcomings, we implemented a generalized linear model to measure the RFs of neurons in the macaque frontal eye field (FEF) in response to sparse, full-field stimuli. Our high-resolution, probabilistic approach tracked the evolution of RFs during passive fixation, and we validated our results against conventional measures. We found that FEF neurons exhibited a surprising level of sensitivity to stimuli presented as briefly as 10 ms or to multiple dots presented simultaneously, suggesting that FEF visual responses are more precise than previously appreciated. FEF RF spatial structures were largely maintained over time and between stimulus conditions. Our results demonstrate that the application of probabilistic RF mapping to FEF and similar association areas is an important tool for clarifying the neuronal mechanisms of cognition.

Beyond LibGuides: The Past, Present, and Future of Online Research Guides

© 2015, Jon C. Giullian and Ernest A. Zitser.The proliferation of research guides created using the LibGuides platform has triggered extensive discussion touting their benefits for everything from assessment, engagement, and marketing, to outreach and pedagogy. However, there is at present a relative paucity of critical reflection about the product’s place in the broader informational landscape. This article is an attempt to redress this lacuna. Relying primarily on examples from the field of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian studies, the authors briefly describe the evolution of online research guides; identify reasons for the proliferation of Springshare’s product in academic libraries; question whether LibGuides improve learning or reinforce information inequality in higher education; and propose a way to move beyond LibGuides.