Modeling economy-wide vs sectoral climate policies using combined aggregate-sectoral models

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economy-wide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: sector-based and/or inefficiently designed policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emission reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economy-wide policy does not significantly raise costs. Focusing policy solely on the electricity and transportation sectors doubles costs, however, and using non-market policies can raise cost by a factor of ten. These results are driven in part by, and are sensitive to, our modeling of pre-existing tax distortions. Copyright © 2006 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Risk of dislocation using large- vs. small-diameter femoral heads in total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Dislocation remains a difficult problem in total hip arthroplasty. Large-diameter femoral heads may lower the incidence of dislocation by enhancing the jump distance and decreasing impingement, but their performance against small-diameter heads has not been assessed. This study compared the mid-term radiographic and functional outcomes of two matched cohorts of patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty who had a high pre-operative risk for dislocation and who received either small-diameter (26- or 28-millimeters) or large-diameter (≥36-millimeters) femoral heads. METHODS: All patients who received large-diameter heads (≥36-millimeter) between 2002 and 2005, and who had pre-operative risk factors for dislocation, were identified in the institution's joint registry. Forty-one patients (52 hips) who received large-diameter heads were identified, and these patients were matched to 48 patients (52 hips) in the registry who received small-diameter femoral heads. RESULTS: At mean final follow-up of 62 months (range, 49 to 101 months), both groups achieved excellent functional outcomes as measured by Harris Hip scores, with slightly better final scores in the large-diameter group (90 vs. 83 points). No patient showed any radiographic signs of loosening. No patient dislocated in the large-diameter femoral head group; the smaller-diameter group had a greater rate of dislocation (3.8%, 2 out of 52). CONCLUSIONS: Large-diameter femoral head articulations may reduce dislocation rates in patients who have a high pre-operative risk for dislocation while providing the same functional improvements and safety as small-diameter bearings.

Orientation, Flow, and Clogging in a Two-Dimensional Hopper: Ellipses vs. Disks

Two-dimensional (2D) hopper flow of disks has been extensively studied. Here, we investigate hopper flow of ellipses with aspect ratio $\alpha = 2$, and we contrast that behavior to the flow of disks. We use a quasi-2D hopper containing photoelastic particles to obtain stress/force information. We simultaneously measure the particle motion and stress. We determine several properties, including discharge rates, jamming probabilities, and the number of particles in clogging arches. For both particle types, the size of the opening, $D$, relative to the size of particles, $\ell$ is an important dimensionless measure. The orientation of the ellipses plays an important role in flow rheology and clogging. The alignment of contacting ellipses enhances the probability of forming stable arches. This study offers insight for applications involving the flow of granular materials consisting of ellipsoidal shapes, and possibly other non-spherical shapes.

Clinician judgment vs formal scales for predicting intracerebral hemorrhage outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of formal prognostic instruments vs subjective clinical judgment with regards to predicting functional outcome in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled 121 ICH patients hospitalized at 5 US tertiary care centers. Within 24 hours of each patient's admission to the hospital, one physician and one nurse on each patient's clinical team were each asked to predict the patient's modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months and to indicate whether he or she would recommend comfort measures. The admission ICH score and FUNC score, 2 prognostic scales selected for their common use in neurologic practice, were calculated for each patient. Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r) with respect to patients' actual 3-month mRS for the physician and nursing predictions were compared against the same correlation coefficients for the ICH score and FUNC score. RESULTS: The absolute value of the correlation coefficient for physician predictions with respect to actual outcome (0.75) was higher than that of either the ICH score (0.62, p = 0.057) or the FUNC score (0.56, p = 0.01). The nursing predictions of outcome (r = 0.72) also trended towards an accuracy advantage over the ICH score (p = 0.09) and FUNC score (p = 0.03). In an analysis that excluded patients for whom comfort care was recommended, the 65 available attending physician predictions retained greater accuracy (r = 0.73) than either the ICH score (r = 0.50, p = 0.02) or the FUNC score (r = 0.42, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Early subjective clinical judgment of physicians correlates more closely with 3-month outcome after ICH than prognostic scales.