4 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off

em Duke University


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This dissertation explores the complex process of organizational change, applying a behavioral lens to understand change in processes, products, and search behaviors. Chapter 1 examines new practice adoption, exploring factors that predict the extent to which routines are adopted “as designed” within the organization. Using medical record data obtained from the hospital’s Electronic Health Record (EHR) system I develop a novel measure of the “gap” between routine “as designed” and routine “as realized.” I link this to a survey administered to the hospital’s professional staff following the adoption of a new EHR system and find that beliefs about the expected impact of the change shape fidelity of the adopted practice to its design. This relationship is more pronounced in care units with experienced professionals and less pronounced when the care unit includes departmental leadership. This research offers new insights into the determinants of routine change in organizations, in particular suggesting the beliefs held by rank-and-file members of an organization are critical in new routine adoption. Chapter 2 explores changes to products, specifically examining culling behaviors in the mobile device industry. Using a panel of quarterly mobile device sales in Germany from 2004-2009, this chapter suggests that the organization’s response to performance feedback is conditional upon the degree to which decisions are centralized. While much of the research on product exit has pointed to economic drivers or prior experience, these central finding of this chapter—that performance below aspirations decreases the rate of phase-out—suggests that firms seek local solutions when doing poorly, which is consistent with behavioral explanations of organizational action. Chapter 3 uses a novel text analysis approach to examine how the allocation of attention within organizational subunits shapes adaptation in the form of search behaviors in Motorola from 1974-1997. It develops a theory that links organizational attention to search, and the results suggest a trade-off between both attentional specialization and coupling on search scope and depth. Specifically, specialized unit attention to a more narrow set of problems increases search scope but reduces search depth; increased attentional coupling also increases search scope at the cost of depth. This novel approach and these findings help clarify extant research on the behavioral outcomes of attention allocation, which have offered mixed results.

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Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) studies of blood flow in cerebrovascular aneurysms have potential to improve patient treatment planning by enabling clinicians and engineers to model patient-specific geometries and compute predictors and risks prior to neurovascular intervention. However, the use of patient-specific computational models in clinical settings is unfeasible due to their complexity, computationally intensive and time-consuming nature. An important factor contributing to this challenge is the choice of outlet boundary conditions, which often involves a trade-off between physiological accuracy, patient-specificity, simplicity and speed. In this study, we analyze how resistance and impedance outlet boundary conditions affect blood flow velocities, wall shear stresses and pressure distributions in a patient-specific model of a cerebrovascular aneurysm. We also use geometrical manipulation techniques to obtain a model of the patient’s vasculature prior to aneurysm development, and study how forces and stresses may have been involved in the initiation of aneurysm growth. Our CFD results show that the nature of the prescribed outlet boundary conditions is not as important as the relative distributions of blood flow through each outlet branch. As long as the appropriate parameters are chosen to keep these flow distributions consistent with physiology, resistance boundary conditions, which are simpler, easier to use and more practical than their impedance counterparts, are sufficient to study aneurysm pathophysiology, since they predict very similar wall shear stresses, time-averaged wall shear stresses, time-averaged pressures, and blood flow patterns and velocities. The only situations where the use of impedance boundary conditions should be prioritized is if pressure waveforms are being analyzed, or if local pressure distributions are being evaluated at specific time points, especially at peak systole, where the use of resistance boundary conditions leads to unnaturally large pressure pulses. In addition, we show that in this specific patient, the region of the blood vessel where the neck of the aneurysm developed was subject to abnormally high wall shear stresses, and that regions surrounding blebs on the aneurysmal surface were subject to low, oscillatory wall shear stresses. Computational models using resistance outlet boundary conditions may be suitable to study patient-specific aneurysm progression in a clinical setting, although several other challenges must be addressed before these tools can be applied clinically.

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I explore and analyze a problem of finding the socially optimal capital requirements for financial institutions considering two distinct channels of contagion: direct exposures among the institutions, as represented by a network and fire sales externalities, which reflect the negative price impact of massive liquidation of assets.These two channels amplify shocks from individual financial institutions to the financial system as a whole and thus increase the risk of joint defaults amongst the interconnected financial institutions; this is often referred to as systemic risk. In the model, there is a trade-off between reducing systemic risk and raising the capital requirements of the financial institutions. The policymaker considers this trade-off and determines the optimal capital requirements for individual financial institutions. I provide a method for finding and analyzing the optimal capital requirements that can be applied to arbitrary network structures and arbitrary distributions of investment returns.

In particular, I first consider a network model consisting only of direct exposures and show that the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic linear programming problem. I then extend the analysis to financial networks with default costs and show the optimal capital requirements can be found by solving a stochastic mixed integer programming problem. The computational complexity of this problem poses a challenge, and I develop an iterative algorithm that can be efficiently executed. I show that the iterative algorithm leads to solutions that are nearly optimal by comparing it with lower bounds based on a dual approach. I also show that the iterative algorithm converges to the optimal solution.

Finally, I incorporate fire sales externalities into the model. In particular, I am able to extend the analysis of systemic risk and the optimal capital requirements with a single illiquid asset to a model with multiple illiquid assets. The model with multiple illiquid assets incorporates liquidation rules used by the banks. I provide an optimization formulation whose solution provides the equilibrium payments for a given liquidation rule.

I further show that the socially optimal capital problem using the ``socially optimal liquidation" and prioritized liquidation rules can be formulated as a convex and convex mixed integer problem, respectively. Finally, I illustrate the results of the methodology on numerical examples and

discuss some implications for capital regulation policy and stress testing.

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Backscatter communication is an emerging wireless technology that recently has gained an increase in attention from both academic and industry circles. The key innovation of the technology is the ability of ultra-low power devices to utilize nearby existing radio signals to communicate. As there is no need to generate their own energetic radio signal, the devices can benefit from a simple design, are very inexpensive and are extremely energy efficient compared with traditional wireless communication. These benefits have made backscatter communication a desirable candidate for distributed wireless sensor network applications with energy constraints.

The backscatter channel presents a unique set of challenges. Unlike a conventional one-way communication (in which the information source is also the energy source), the backscatter channel experiences strong self-interference and spread Doppler clutter that mask the information-bearing (modulated) signal scattered from the device. Both of these sources of interference arise from the scattering of the transmitted signal off of objects, both stationary and moving, in the environment. Additionally, the measurement of the location of the backscatter device is negatively affected by both the clutter and the modulation of the signal return.

This work proposes a channel coding framework for the backscatter channel consisting of a bi-static transmitter/receiver pair and a quasi-cooperative transponder. It proposes to use run-length limited coding to mitigate the background self-interference and spread-Doppler clutter with only a small decrease in communication rate. The proposed method applies to both binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) and quadrature-amplitude modulation (QAM) scheme and provides an increase in rate by up to a factor of two compared with previous methods.

Additionally, this work analyzes the use of frequency modulation and bi-phase waveform coding for the transmitted (interrogating) waveform for high precision range estimation of the transponder location. Compared to previous methods, optimal lower range sidelobes are achieved. Moreover, since both the transmitted (interrogating) waveform coding and transponder communication coding result in instantaneous phase modulation of the signal, cross-interference between localization and communication tasks exists. Phase discriminating algorithm is proposed to make it possible to separate the waveform coding from the communication coding, upon reception, and achieve localization with increased signal energy by up to 3 dB compared with previous reported results.

The joint communication-localization framework also enables a low-complexity receiver design because the same radio is used both for localization and communication.

Simulations comparing the performance of different codes corroborate the theoretical results and offer possible trade-off between information rate and clutter mitigation as well as a trade-off between choice of waveform-channel coding pairs. Experimental results from a brass-board microwave system in an indoor environment are also presented and discussed.