Using Behavioral Insights For a Better Understanding of Economic Decisions (Regarding Savings, Inequality and Dishonesty)

This dissertation consists of three essays on behavioral economics, with a general aim of enriching our understanding of economic decisions using behavioral insights and experimental methodology. Each essay takes on one particular topic with this general aim.

The first chapter studies savings behavior of the poor. In this project, partnering with a savings product provider in Kenya, we tested the extent to which behavioral interventions and financial incentives can increase the saving rate of individuals with low and irregular income. Our experiment lasted for six months and included a total of twelve conditions. The control condition received weekly reminders and balance reporting via text messages. The treatment conditions received in addition one of the following interventions: (1) reminder text messages framed as if they came from the participant’s kid (2) a golden colored coin with numbers for each week of the trial, on which participants were asked to keep track of their weekly deposits (3) a match of weekly savings: The match was either 10% or 20% up to a certain amount per week. The match was either deposited at the end of each week or the highest possible match was deposited at the start of each week and was adjusted at the end. Among these interventions, by far the most effective was the coin: Those in the coin condition saved on average the highest amount and more than twice as those in the control condition. We hypothesize that being a tangible track-keeping object; the coin made subjects remember to save more often. Our results support the line of literature suggesting that saving decisions involve psychological aspects and that policy makers and product designers should take these influences into account.

The second chapter is related to views towards inequality. In this project, we investigate how the perceived fairness of income distributions depends on the beliefs about the process that generated the inequality. Specifically, we examine how two crucial features of this process affect fairness views: (1) Procedural justice - equal treatment of all, (2) Agency - one's ability to determine his/her income. We do this in a lab experiment by varying the equality of opportunity (procedural justice), and one's ability to make choices, which consequently influence subjects’ ability to influence their income (agency). We then elicit ex-post redistribution decisions of the earnings as a function of these two elements. Our results suggest both agency and procedural justice matter for fairness. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Highlighting the importance of agency, we find that inequality resulting from risk is considered to be fair only when risk is chosen freely; (2) Highlighting the importance of procedural justice, we find that introducing inequality of opportunity significantly increases redistribution, however the share of subjects redistributing none remain close to the share of subjects redistributing fully revealing an underlying heterogeneity in the population about how fairness views should account for inequality of opportunity.

The third chapter is on morality. In this project, we study whether religious rituals act as an internal reminder for basic moral principles and thus affect moral judgments. To this end, we conducted two survey experiments in Turkey and Israel to specifically test the effect of Ramadan and Yom Kippur. The results from the Turkish sample how that Ramadan has a significant effect on moral judgments to some extent for those who report to believe in God. Those who believe in God judged the moral acceptability of ten out of sixty one actions significantly differently in Ramadan, whereas those who reported not to believe in God significantly changed their judgments only for one action in Ramadan. Our results extends the hypothesis established by lab experiments that religious reminders have a significant effect on morality, by testing it in the field in the natural environment of religious rituals.

This thesis is part of a broader collaborative research agenda with both colleagues and advisors. The programming, analyses, and writing, as well as any errors in this work, are my own.

The implementation of a translational study involving a primary care based behavioral program to improve blood pressure control: The HTN-IMPROVE study protocol (01295).

BACKGROUND: Despite the impact of hypertension and widely accepted target values for blood pressure (BP), interventions to improve BP control have had limited success. OBJECTIVES: We describe the design of a 'translational' study that examines the implementation, impact, sustainability, and cost of an evidence-based nurse-delivered tailored behavioral self-management intervention to improve BP control as it moves from a research context to healthcare delivery. The study addresses four specific aims: assess the implementation of an evidence-based behavioral self-management intervention to improve BP levels; evaluate the clinical impact of the intervention as it is implemented; assess organizational factors associated with the sustainability of the intervention; and assess the cost of implementing and sustaining the intervention. METHODS: The project involves three geographically diverse VA intervention facilities and nine control sites. We first conduct an evaluation of barriers and facilitators for implementing the intervention at intervention sites. We examine the impact of the intervention by comparing 12-month pre/post changes in BP control between patients in intervention sites versus patients in the matched control sites. Next, we examine the sustainability of the intervention and organizational factors facilitating or hindering the sustained implementation. Finally, we examine the costs of intervention implementation. Key outcomes are acceptability and costs of the program, as well as changes in BP. Outcomes will be assessed using mixed methods (e.g., qualitative analyses--pattern matching; quantitative methods--linear mixed models). DISCUSSION: The study results will provide information about the challenges and costs to implement and sustain the intervention, and what clinical impact can be expected.

Gender differences in the risk of HIV infection among persons reporting abstinence, monogamy, and multiple sexual partners in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.

c-Myc is required for maintenance of glioma cancer stem cells.

BACKGROUND: Malignant gliomas rank among the most lethal cancers. Gliomas display a striking cellular heterogeneity with a hierarchy of differentiation states. Recent studies support the existence of cancer stem cells in gliomas that are functionally defined by their capacity for extensive self-renewal and formation of secondary tumors that phenocopy the original tumors. As the c-Myc oncoprotein has recognized roles in normal stem cell biology, we hypothesized that c-Myc may contribute to cancer stem cell biology as these cells share characteristics with normal stem cells. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on previous methods that we and others have employed, tumor cell populations were enriched or depleted for cancer stem cells using the stem cell marker CD133 (Prominin-1). We characterized c-Myc expression in matched tumor cell populations using real time PCR, immunoblotting, immunofluorescence and flow cytometry. Here we report that c-Myc is highly expressed in glioma cancer stem cells relative to non-stem glioma cells. To interrogate the significance of c-Myc expression in glioma cancer stem cells, we targeted its expression using lentivirally transduced short hairpin RNA (shRNA). Knockdown of c-Myc in glioma cancer stem cells reduced proliferation with concomitant cell cycle arrest in the G(0)/G(1) phase and increased apoptosis. Non-stem glioma cells displayed limited dependence on c-Myc expression for survival and proliferation. Further, glioma cancer stem cells with decreased c-Myc levels failed to form neurospheres in vitro or tumors when xenotransplanted into the brains of immunocompromised mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings support a central role of c-Myc in regulating proliferation and survival of glioma cancer stem cells. Targeting core stem cell pathways may offer improved therapeutic approaches for advanced cancers.

Serotonin transporter genotype modulates social reward and punishment in rhesus macaques

Background: Serotonin signaling influences social behavior in both human and nonhuman primates. In humans, variation upstream of the promoter region of the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR) has recently been shown to influence both behavioral measures of social anxiety and amygdala response to social threats. Here we show that length polymorphisms in 5-HTTLPR predict social reward and punishment in rhesus macaques, a species in which 5-HTTLPR variation is analogous to that of humans. Methodology/Principal Findings: In contrast to monkeys with two copies of the long allele (L/L), monkeys with one copy of the short allele of this gene (S/L) spent less time gazing at face than non-face images, less time looking in the eye region of faces, and had larger pupil diameters when gazing at photos of a high versus low status male macaques. Moreover, in a novel primed gambling task, presentation of photos of high status male macaques promoted risk-aversion in S/L monkeys but promoted risk-seeking in L/L monkeys. Finally, as measured by a "pay-per-view" task, S/L monkeys required juice payment to view photos of high status males, whereas L/L monkeys sacrificed fluid to see the same photos. Conclusions/Significance: These data indicate that genetic variation in serotonin function contributes to social reward and punishment in rhesus macaques, and thus shapes social behavior in humans and rhesus macaques alike. © 2009 Watson et al.

Evidence that SOX2 overexpression is oncogenic in the lung.

BACKGROUND: SOX2 (Sry-box 2) is required to maintain a variety of stem cells, is overexpressed in some solid tumors, and is expressed in epithelial cells of the lung. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that SOX2 is overexpressed in human squamous cell lung tumors and some adenocarcinomas. We have generated mouse models in which Sox2 is upregulated in epithelial cells of the lung during development and in the adult. In both cases, overexpression leads to extensive hyperplasia. In the terminal bronchioles, a trachea-like pseudostratified epithelium develops with p63-positive cells underlying columnar cells. Over 12-34 weeks, about half of the mice expressing the highest levels of Sox2 develop carcinoma. These tumors resemble adenocarcinoma but express the squamous marker, Trp63 (p63). CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that Sox2 overexpression both induces a proximal phenotype in the distal airways/alveoli and leads to cancer.

Spike avalanches exhibit universal dynamics across the sleep-wake cycle.

BACKGROUND: Scale-invariant neuronal avalanches have been observed in cell cultures and slices as well as anesthetized and awake brains, suggesting that the brain operates near criticality, i.e. within a narrow margin between avalanche propagation and extinction. In theory, criticality provides many desirable features for the behaving brain, optimizing computational capabilities, information transmission, sensitivity to sensory stimuli and size of memory repertoires. However, a thorough characterization of neuronal avalanches in freely-behaving (FB) animals is still missing, thus raising doubts about their relevance for brain function. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address this issue, we employed chronically implanted multielectrode arrays (MEA) to record avalanches of action potentials (spikes) from the cerebral cortex and hippocampus of 14 rats, as they spontaneously traversed the wake-sleep cycle, explored novel objects or were subjected to anesthesia (AN). We then modeled spike avalanches to evaluate the impact of sparse MEA sampling on their statistics. We found that the size distribution of spike avalanches are well fit by lognormal distributions in FB animals, and by truncated power laws in the AN group. FB data surrogation markedly decreases the tail of the distribution, i.e. spike shuffling destroys the largest avalanches. The FB data are also characterized by multiple key features compatible with criticality in the temporal domain, such as 1/f spectra and long-term correlations as measured by detrended fluctuation analysis. These signatures are very stable across waking, slow-wave sleep and rapid-eye-movement sleep, but collapse during anesthesia. Likewise, waiting time distributions obey a single scaling function during all natural behavioral states, but not during anesthesia. Results are equivalent for neuronal ensembles recorded from visual and tactile areas of the cerebral cortex, as well as the hippocampus. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Altogether, the data provide a comprehensive link between behavior and brain criticality, revealing a unique scale-invariant regime of spike avalanches across all major behaviors.

A randomized clinical trial of a coping improvement group intervention for HIV-infected older adults.

This research tested if a 12-session coping improvement group intervention (n = 104) reduced depressive symptoms in HIV-infected older adults compared to an interpersonal support group intervention (n = 105) and an individual therapy upon request (ITUR) control condition (n = 86). Participants were 295 HIV-infected men and women 50-plus years of age living in New York City, Cincinnati, OH, and Columbus, OH. Using A-CASI assessment methodology, participants provided data on their depressive symptoms using the Geriatric Depression Screening Scale (GDS) at pre-intervention, post-intervention, and 4- and 8-month follow-up. Whether conducted with all participants (N = 295) or only a subset of participants diagnosed with mild, moderate, or severe depressive symptoms (N = 171), mixed models analyses of repeated measures found that both coping improvement and interpersonal support group intervention participants reported fewer depressive symptoms than ITUR controls at post-intervention, 4-month follow-up, and 8-month follow-up. The effect sizes of the differences between the two active interventions and the control group were greater when outcome analyses were limited to those participants with mild, moderate, or severe depressive symptoms. At no assessment period did coping improvement and interpersonal support group intervention participants differ in depressive symptoms.

Changes in midbrain pain receptor expression, gait and behavioral sensitivity in a rat model of radiculopathy.

Intervertebral disc herniation may contribute to inflammatory processes that associate with radicular pain and motor deficits. Molecular changes at the affected dorsal root ganglion (DRG), spinal cord, and even midbrain, have been documented in rat models of radiculopathy or nerve injury. The objective of this study was to evaluate gait and the expression of key pain receptors in the midbrain in a rodent model of radiculopathy. Radiculopathy was induced by harvesting tail nucleus pulposus (NP) and placing upon the right L5 DRG in rats (NP-treated, n=12). Tail NP was discarded in sham-operated animals (n=12). Mechanical allodynia, weight-bearing, and gait were evaluated in all animals over time. At 1 and 4 weeks after surgery, astrocyte and microglial activation was tested in DRG sections. Midbrain sections were similarly evaluated for immunoreactivity to serotonin (5HT(2B)), mu-opioid (µ-OR), and metabotropic glutamate (mGluR4 and 5) receptor antibodies. NP-treated animals placed less weight on the affected limb 1 week after surgery and experienced mechanical hypersensitivity over the duration of the study. Astroctye activation was observed at DRGs only at 4 weeks after surgery. Findings for pain receptors in the midbrain of NP-treated rats included an increased expression of 5HT(2B) at 1, but not 4 weeks; increased expression of µ-OR and mGluR5 at 1 and 4 weeks (periaqueductal gray region only); and no changes in expression of mGluR4 at any point in this study. These observations provide support for the hypothesis that the midbrain responds to DRG injury with a transient change in receptors regulating pain responses.

The effect of differences in methodology among some recent applications of shearing quotients.

A shearing quotient (SQ) is a way of quantitatively representing the Phase I shearing edges on a molar tooth. Ordinary or phylogenetic least squares regression is fit to data on log molar length (independent variable) and log sum of measured shearing crests (dependent variable). The derived linear equation is used to generate an 'expected' shearing crest length from molar length of included individuals or taxa. Following conversion of all variables to real space, the expected value is subtracted from the observed value for each individual or taxon. The result is then divided by the expected value and multiplied by 100. SQs have long been the metric of choice for assessing dietary adaptations in fossil primates. Not all studies using SQ have used the same tooth position or crests, nor have all computed regression equations using the same approach. Here we focus on re-analyzing the data of one recent study to investigate the magnitude of effects of variation in 1) shearing crest inclusion, and 2) details of the regression setup. We assess the significance of these effects by the degree to which they improve or degrade the association between computed SQs and diet categories. Though altering regression parameters for SQ calculation has a visible effect on plots, numerous iterations of statistical analyses vary surprisingly little in the success of the resulting variables for assigning taxa to dietary preference. This is promising for the comparability of patterns (if not casewise values) in SQ between studies. We suggest that differences in apparent dietary fidelity of recent studies are attributable principally to tooth position examined.

Rapid behavioral and genomic responses to social opportunity.

From primates to bees, social status regulates reproduction. In the cichlid fish Astatotilapia (Haplochromis) burtoni, subordinate males have reduced fertility and must become dominant to reproduce. This increase in sexual capacity is orchestrated by neurons in the preoptic area, which enlarge in response to dominance and increase expression of gonadotropin-releasing hormone 1 (GnRH1), a peptide critical for reproduction. Using a novel behavioral paradigm, we show for the first time that subordinate males can become dominant within minutes of an opportunity to do so, displaying dramatic changes in body coloration and behavior. We also found that social opportunity induced expression of the immediate-early gene egr-1 in the anterior preoptic area, peaking in regions with high densities of GnRH1 neurons, and not in brain regions that express the related peptides GnRH2 and GnRH3. This genomic response did not occur in stable subordinate or stable dominant males even though stable dominants, like ascending males, displayed dominance behaviors. Moreover, egr-1 in the optic tectum and the cerebellum was similarly induced in all experimental groups, showing that egr-1 induction in the anterior preoptic area of ascending males was specific to this brain region. Because egr-1 codes for a transcription factor important in neural plasticity, induction of egr-1 in the anterior preoptic area by social opportunity could be an early trigger in the molecular cascade that culminates in enhanced fertility and other long-term physiological changes associated with dominance.

Can Genetics Predict Response to Complex Behavioral Interventions? Evidence from a Genetic Analysis of the Fast Track Randomized Control Trial.

Early interventions are a preferred method for addressing behavioral problems in high-risk children, but often have only modest effects. Identifying sources of variation in intervention effects can suggest means to improve efficiency. One potential source of such variation is the genome. We conducted a genetic analysis of the Fast Track randomized control trial, a 10-year-long intervention to prevent high-risk kindergarteners from developing adult externalizing problems including substance abuse and antisocial behavior. We tested whether variants of the glucocorticoid receptor gene NR3C1 were associated with differences in response to the Fast Track intervention. We found that in European-American children, a variant of NR3C1 identified by the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs10482672 was associated with increased risk for externalizing psychopathology in control group children and decreased risk for externalizing psychopathology in intervention group children. Variation in NR3C1 measured in this study was not associated with differential intervention response in African-American children. We discuss implications for efforts to prevent externalizing problems in high-risk children and for public policy in the genomic era.

Computer vision tools for the non-invasive assessment of autism-related behavioral markers

The early detection of developmental disorders is key to child outcome, allowing interventions to be initiated that promote development and improve prognosis. Research on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) suggests behavioral markers can be observed late in the first year of life. Many of these studies involved extensive frame-by-frame video observation and analysis of a child's natural behavior. Although non-intrusive, these methods are extremely time-intensive and require a high level of observer training; thus, they are impractical for clinical and large population research purposes. Diagnostic measures for ASD are available for infants but are only accurate when used by specialists experienced in early diagnosis. This work is a first milestone in a long-term multidisciplinary project that aims at helping clinicians and general practitioners accomplish this early detection/measurement task automatically. We focus on providing computer vision tools to measure and identify ASD behavioral markers based on components of the Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI). In particular, we develop algorithms to measure three critical AOSI activities that assess visual attention. We augment these AOSI activities with an additional test that analyzes asymmetrical patterns in unsupported gait. The first set of algorithms involves assessing head motion by tracking facial features, while the gait analysis relies on joint foreground segmentation and 2D body pose estimation in video. We show results that provide insightful knowledge to augment the clinician's behavioral observations obtained from real in-clinic assessments.

Nurse-led behavioral management of diabetes and hypertension in community practices: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Several trials have demonstrated the efficacy of nurse telephone case management for diabetes (DM) and hypertension (HTN) in academic or vertically integrated systems. Little is known about the real-world potency of these interventions. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of nurse behavioral management of DM and HTN in community practices among patients with both diseases. DESIGN: The study was designed as a patient-level randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included adult patients with both type 2 DM and HTN who were receiving care at one of nine community fee-for-service practices. Subjects were required to have inadequately controlled DM (hemoglobin A1c [A1c] ≥ 7.5%) but could have well-controlled HTN. INTERVENTIONS: All patients received a call from a nurse experienced in DM and HTN management once every two months over a period of two years, for a total of 12 calls. Intervention patients received tailored DM- and HTN- focused behavioral content; control patients received non-tailored, non-interactive information regarding health issues unrelated to DM and HTN (e.g., skin cancer prevention). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and A1c were co-primary outcomes, measured at 6, 12, and 24 months; 24 months was the primary time point. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-seven subjects were enrolled; 193 were randomized to intervention, 184 to control. Subjects were 55% female and 50% white; the mean baseline A1c was 9.1% (SD = 1%) and mean SBP was 142 mmHg (SD = 20). Eighty-two percent of scheduled interviews were conducted; 69% of intervention patients and 70% of control patients reached the 24-month time point. Expressing model estimated differences as (intervention--control), at 24 months, intervention patients had similar A1c [diff = 0.1 %, 95 % CI (-0.3, 0.5), p = 0.51] and SBP [diff = -0.9 mmHg, 95% CI (-5.4, 3.5), p = 0.68] values compared to control patients. Likewise, DBP (diff = 0.4 mmHg, p = 0.76), weight (diff = 0.3 kg, p = 0.80), and physical activity levels (diff = 153 MET-min/week, p = 0.41) were similar between control and intervention patients. Results were also similar at the 6- and 12-month time points. CONCLUSIONS: In nine community fee-for-service practices, telephonic nurse case management did not lead to improvement in A1c or SBP. Gains seen in telephonic behavioral self-management interventions in optimal settings may not translate to the wider range of primary care settings.