Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R&D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Convergence of numerical time-averaging and stationary measures via Poisson equations

Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic di.erential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical method converges to that of the SDE. The error analysis is based on using an associated Poisson equation for the underlying SDE. The main advantages of this approach are its simplicity and universality. It works equally well for a range of explicit and implicit schemes, including those with simple simulation of random variables, and for hypoelliptic SDEs. To simplify the exposition, we consider only the case where the state space of the SDE is a torus, and we study only smooth test functions. However, we anticipate that the approach can be applied more widely. An analogy between our approach and Stein's method is indicated. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

Assessment of LD matrix measures for the analysis of biological pathway association.

Complex diseases will have multiple functional sites, and it will be invaluable to understand the cross-locus interaction in terms of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between those sites (epistasis) in addition to the haplotype-LD effects. We investigated the statistical properties of a class of matrix-based statistics to assess this epistasis. These statistical methods include two LD contrast tests (Zaykin et al., 2006) and partial least squares regression (Wang et al., 2008). To estimate Type 1 error rates and power, we simulated multiple two-variant disease models using the SIMLA software package. SIMLA allows for the joint action of up to two disease genes in the simulated data with all possible multiplicative interaction effects between them. Our goal was to detect an interaction between multiple disease-causing variants by means of their linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns with other markers. We measured the effects of marginal disease effect size, haplotype LD, disease prevalence and minor allele frequency have on cross-locus interaction (epistasis). In the setting of strong allele effects and strong interaction, the correlation between the two disease genes was weak (r=0.2). In a complex system with multiple correlations (both marginal and interaction), it was difficult to determine the source of a significant result. Despite these complications, the partial least squares and modified LD contrast methods maintained adequate power to detect the epistatic effects; however, for many of the analyses we often could not separate interaction from a strong marginal effect. While we did not exhaust the entire parameter space of possible models, we do provide guidance on the effects that population parameters have on cross-locus interaction.

Environmental impacts of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee: an 18-month survey.

An 18 month investigation of the environmental impacts of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee combined with leaching experiments on the spilled TVA coal ash have revealed that leachable coal ash contaminants (LCACs), particularly arsenic, selenium, boron, strontium, and barium, have different effects on the quality of impacted environments. While LCACs levels in the downstream river water are relatively low and below the EPA drinking water and ecological thresholds, elevated levels were found in surface water with restricted water exchange and in pore water extracted from the river sediments downstream from the spill. The high concentration of arsenic (up to 2000 μg/L) is associated with some degree of anoxic conditions and predominance of the reduced arsenic species (arsenite) in the pore waters. Laboratory leaching simulations show that the pH and ash/water ratio control the LCACs' abundance and geochemical composition of the impacted water. These results have important implications for the prediction of the fate and migration of LCACs in the environment, particularly for the storage of coal combustion residues (CCRs) in holding ponds and landfills, and any potential CCRs effluents leakage into lakes, rivers, and other aquatic systems.

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee.

An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. First the surface release of coal ash with high levels of toxic elements (As = 75 mg/kg; Hg = 150 microg/kg) and radioactivity (226Ra + 228Ra = 8 pCi/g) to the environment has the potential to generate resuspended ambient fine particles (< 10 microm) containing these toxics into the atmosphere that may pose a health risk to local communities. Second, leaching of contaminants from the coal ash caused contamination of surface waters in areas of restricted water exchange, but only trace levels were found in the downstream Emory and Clinch Rivers due to river dilution. Third, the accumulation of Hg- and As-rich coal ash in river sediments has the potential to have an impact on the ecological system in the downstream rivers by fish poisoning and methylmercury formation in anaerobic river sediments.

Impacts of Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining on the Mud River, West Virginia: Selenium Accumulation, Trophic Transfer, and Toxicity in Fish

Selenium (Se) is a micronutrient necessary for the function of a variety of important enzymes; Se also exhibits a narrow range in concentrations between essentiality and toxicity. Oviparous vertebrates such as birds and fish are especially sensitive to Se toxicity, which causes reproductive impairment and defects in embryo development. Selenium occurs naturally in the Earth's crust, but it can be mobilized by a variety of anthropogenic activities, including agricultural practices, coal burning, and mining.

Mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining is a form of surface mining found throughout central Appalachia in the United States that involves blasting off the tops of mountains to access underlying coal seams. Spoil rock from the mountain is placed into adjacent valleys, forming valley fills, which bury stream headwaters and negatively impact surface water quality. This research focused on the biological impacts of Se leached from MTR/VF coal mining operations located around the Mud River, West Virginia.

In order to assess the status of Se in a lotic (flowing) system such as the Mud River, surface water, insects, and fish samples including creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) were collected from a mining impacted site as well as from a reference site not impacted by mining. Analysis of samples from the mined site showed increased conductivity and Se in the surface waters compared to the reference site in addition to increased concentrations of Se in insects and fish. Histological analysis of mined site fish gills showed a lack of normal parasites, suggesting parasite populations may be disrupted due to poor water quality. X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy techniques were used to determine the speciation of Se in insect and creek chub samples. Insects contained approximately 40-50% inorganic Se (selenate and selenite) and 50-60% organic Se (Se-methionine and Se-cystine) while fish tissues contained lower proportions of inorganic Se than insects, instead having higher proportions of organic Se in the forms of methyl-Se-cysteine, Se-cystine, and Se-methionine.

Otoliths, calcified inner ear structures, were also collected from Mud River creek chubs and green sunfish and analyzed for Se content using laser ablation inductively couple mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Significant differences were found between the two species of fish, based on the concentrations of otolith Se. Green sunfish otoliths from all sites contained background or low concentrations of otolith Se (< 1 µg/g) that were not significantly different between mined and unmined sites. In contrast creek chub otoliths from the historically mined site contained much higher (≥ 5 µg/g, up to approximately 68 µg/g) concentrations of Se than for the same species in the unmined site or for the green sunfish. Otolith Se concentrations were related to muscle Se concentrations for creek chubs (R2 = 0.54, p = 0.0002 for the last 20% of the otolith Se versus muscle Se) while no relationship was observed for green sunfish.

Additional experiments using biofilms grown in the Mud River showed increased Se in mined site biofilms compared to the reference site. When we fed fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) on these biofilms in the laboratory they accumulated higher concentrations of Se in liver and ovary tissues compared to fathead minnows fed on reference site biofilms. No differences in Se accumulation were found in muscle from either treatment group. Biofilms were also centrifuged and separated into filamentous green algae and the remaining diatom fraction. The majority of Se was found in the diatom fraction with only about 1/3rd of total biofilm Se concentration present in the filamentous green algae fraction

Finally, zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos were exposed to aqueous Se in the form of selenate, selenite, and L-selenomethionine in an attempt to determine if oxidative stress plays a role in selenium embryo toxicity. Selenate and selenite exposure did not induce embryo deformities (lordosis and craniofacial malformation). L-selenomethionine, however, induced significantly higher deformity rates at 100 µg/L compared to controls. Antioxidant rescue of L-selenomethionime induced deformities was attempted in embryos using N-acetylcysteine (NAC). Pretreatment with NAC significantly reduced deformities in the zebrafish embryos secondarily treated with L-selenomethionine, suggesting that oxidative stress may play a role in Se toxicity. Selenite exposure also induced a 6.6-fold increase in glutathione-S-transferase pi class 2 gene expression, which is involved in xenobiotic transformation. No changes in gene expression were observed for selenate or L-selenomethionine-exposed embryos.

The findings in this dissertation contribute to the understanding of how Se bioaccumulates in a lotic system and is transferred through a simulated foodweb in addition to further exploring oxidative stress as a potential mechanism for Se-induced embryo toxicity. Future studies should continue to pursue the role of oxidative stress and other mechanisms in Se toxicity and the biotransformation of Se in aquatic ecosystems.

Boron and strontium isotopic characterization of coal combustion residuals: validation of new environmental tracers.

In the U.S., coal fired power plants produce over 136 million tons of coal combustion residuals (CCRs) annually. CCRs are enriched in toxic elements, and their leachates can have significant impacts on water quality. Here we report the boron and strontium isotopic ratios of leaching experiments on CCRs from a variety of coal sources (Appalachian, Illinois, and Powder River Basins). CCR leachates had a mostly negative δ(11)B, ranging from -17.6 to +6.3‰, and (87)Sr/(86)Sr ranging from 0.70975 to 0.71251. Additionally, we utilized these isotopic ratios for tracing CCR contaminants in different environments: (1) the 2008 Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) coal ash spill affected waters; (2) CCR effluents from power plants in Tennessee and North Carolina; (3) lakes and rivers affected by CCR effluents in North Carolina; and (4) porewater extracted from sediments in lakes affected by CCRs. The boron isotopes measured in these environments had a distinctive negative δ(11)B signature relative to background waters. In contrast (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios in CCRs were not always exclusively different from background, limiting their use as a CCR tracer. This investigation demonstrates the validity of the combined geochemical and isotopic approach as a unique and practical identification method for delineating and evaluating the environmental impact of CCRs.

Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.

Temporal Stability of Molecular Diversity Measures in Natural Populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura and Drosophila persimilis

Many molecular ecological and evolutionary studies sample wild populations at a single point in time, failing to consider that data they collect represents genetic variation from a potentially unrepresentative snapshot in time. Variation across time in genetic parameters may occur quickly in species that produce multiple generations of offspring per year. However, many studies of rapid contemporary microevolution examine phenotypic trait divergence as opposed to molecular evolutionary divergence. Here, we compare genetic diversity in wild caught populations of Drosophila persimilis and D. pseudoobscura collected 16 years apart at the same time of year and same site at four X-linked and two mitochondrial loci to assess genetic stability. We found no major changes in nucleotide diversity in either species, but we observed a drastic shift in Tajima’s D between D. pseudoobscura timepoints at one locus associated with the increased abundance of a set of related haplotypes. Our data also suggests that D. persimilis may have recently accelerated its demographic expansion. While the changes we observed were modest, this study reinforces the importance of considering potential temporal variation in genetic parameters within single populations over short evolutionary timescales.

Participant, rater, and computer measures of coherence in posttraumatic stress disorder.

We examined the coherence of trauma memories in a trauma-exposed community sample of 30 adults with and 30 without posttraumatic stress disorder. The groups had similar categories of traumas and were matched on multiple factors that could affect the coherence of memories. We compared the transcribed oral trauma memories of participants with their most important and most positive memories. A comprehensive set of 28 measures of coherence including 3 ratings by the participants, 7 ratings by outside raters, and 18 computer-scored measures, provided a variety of approaches to defining and measuring coherence. A multivariate analysis of variance indicated differences in coherence among the trauma, important, and positive memories, but not between the diagnostic groups or their interaction with these memory types. Most differences were small in magnitude; in some cases, the trauma memories were more, rather than less, coherent than the control memories. Where differences existed, the results agreed with the existing literature, suggesting that factors other than the incoherence of trauma memories are most likely to be central to the maintenance of posttraumatic stress disorder and thus its treatment.

Accounting for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Severity With Pre- and Posttrauma Measures: A Longitudinal Study of Older Adults.

Using data from a longitudinal study of community-dwelling older adults, we analyzed the most extensive set of known correlates of PTSD symptoms obtained from a single sample to examine the measures' independent and combined utility in accounting for PTSD symptom severity. Fifteen measures identified as PTSD risk factors in published meta-analyses and 12 theoretically and empirically supported individual difference and health-related measures were included. Individual difference measures assessed after the trauma, including insecure attachment and factors related to the current trauma memory, such as self-rated severity, event centrality, frequency of involuntary recall, and physical reactions to the memory, accounted for symptom severity better than measures of pre-trauma factors. In an analysis restricted to prospective measures assessed before the trauma, the total variance explained decreased from 56% to 16%. Results support a model of PTSD in which characteristics of the current trauma memory promote the development and maintenance of PTSD symptoms.