Refractive changes after descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty: a simplified mathematical model.

PURPOSE: To develop a mathematical model that can predict refractive changes after Descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty (DSEK). METHODS: A mathematical formula based on the Gullstrand eye model was generated to estimate the change in refractive power of the eye after DSEK. This model was applied to four DSEK cases retrospectively, to compare measured and predicted refractive changes after DSEK. RESULTS: The refractive change after DSEK is determined by calculating the difference in the power of the eye before and after DSEK surgery. The power of the eye post-DSEK surgery can be calculated with modified Gullstrand eye model equations that incorporate the change in the posterior radius of curvature and change in the distance between the principal planes of the cornea and lens after DSEK. Analysis of this model suggests that the ratio of central to peripheral graft thickness (CP ratio) and central thickness can have significant effect on refractive change where smaller CP ratios and larger graft thicknesses result in larger hyperopic shifts. This model was applied to four patients, and the average predicted hyperopic shift in the overall power of the eye was calculated to be 0.83 D. This change reflected in a mean of 93% (range, 75%-110%) of patients' measured refractive shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This simplified DSEK mathematical model can be used as a first step for estimating the hyperopic shift after DSEK. Further studies are necessary to refine the validity of this model.

A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.