Modeling economy-wide vs sectoral climate policies using combined aggregate-sectoral models

Economic analyses of climate change policies frequently focus on reductions of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions via market-based, economy-wide policies. The current course of environment and energy policy debate in the United States, however, suggests an alternative outcome: sector-based and/or inefficiently designed policies. This paper uses a collection of specialized, sector-based models in conjunction with a computable general equilibrium model of the economy to examine and compare these policies at an aggregate level. We examine the relative cost of different policies designed to achieve the same quantity of emission reductions. We find that excluding a limited number of sectors from an economy-wide policy does not significantly raise costs. Focusing policy solely on the electricity and transportation sectors doubles costs, however, and using non-market policies can raise cost by a factor of ten. These results are driven in part by, and are sensitive to, our modeling of pre-existing tax distortions. Copyright © 2006 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

2000 NHGRI e-mail request for HGP sequencing center information, and corresponding aggregate data from NHGRI, compiled by Kris Wetterstrand

Email exchange in 2013 between Kathryn Maxson (Duke) and Kris Wetterstrand (NHGRI), regarding country funding and other data for the HGP sequencing centers. Also includes the email request for such information, from NHGRI to the centers, in 2000, and the aggregate data collected.

Equity trading volume and volatility: Latent information arrivals and common long-run dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate "news"-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.

Chondrogenesis and mineralization during in vitro culture of human mesenchymal stem cells on three-dimensional woven scaffolds.

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) and three-dimensional (3D) woven poly(ɛ-caprolactone) (PCL) scaffolds are promising tools for skeletal tissue engineering. We hypothesized that in vitro culture duration and medium additives can individually and interactively influence the structure, composition, mechanical, and molecular properties of engineered tissues based on hMSCs and 3D poly(ɛ-caprolactone). Bone marrow hMSCs were suspended in collagen gel, seeded on scaffolds, and cultured for 1, 21, or 45 days under chondrogenic and/or osteogenic conditions. Structure, composition, biomechanics, and gene expression were analyzed. In chondrogenic medium, cartilaginous tissue formed by day 21, and hypertrophic mineralization was observed in the newly formed extracellular matrix at the interface with underlying scaffold by day 45. Glycosaminoglycan, hydroxyproline, and calcium contents, and alkaline phosphatase activity depended on culture duration and medium additives, with significant interactive effects (all p < 0.0001). The 45-day constructs exhibited mechanical properties on the order of magnitude of native articular cartilage (aggregate, Young's, and shear moduli of 0.15, 0.12, and 0.033 MPa, respectively). Gene expression was characteristic of chondrogenesis and endochondral bone formation, with sequential regulation of Sox-9, collagen type II, aggrecan, core binding factor alpha 1 (Cbfα1)/Runx2, bone sialoprotein, bone morphogenetic protein-2, and osteocalcin. In contrast, osteogenic medium produced limited osteogenesis. Long-term culture of hMSC on 3D scaffolds resulted in chondrogenesis and regional mineralization at the interface between soft, newly formed engineered cartilage, and stiffer underlying scaffold. These findings merit consideration when developing grafts for osteochondral defect repair.

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mergers, Acquisitions, and Alliances

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article considers the determinants and effects of M&As in the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular focus on innovation and R&D productivity. As is the case in other industries, mergers in the pharmaceutical field are driven by a variety of company motives and conditions. These include defensive responses to industry shocks as well as more proactive rationales, such as economies of scale and scope, access to new technologies, and expansion to new markets. It is important to take account of firms' characteristics and motivations in evaluating merger performance, rather than using a broad aggregate brushstroke. Research to date on pharmaceuticals suggests considerable variation in both motivation and outcomes. From an antitrust policy standpoint, the larger horizontal mergers in pharmaceuticals have run into few challenges from regulatory authorities in the United States and the European Union, given the option to spin off competing therapeutic products to other drug firms.

Carbon mitigation costs for the commercial building sector: Discrete-continuous choice analysis of multifuel energy demand

We estimate a carbon mitigation cost curve for the U.S. commercial sector based on econometric estimation of the responsiveness of fuel demand and equipment choices to energy price changes. The model econometrically estimates fuel demand conditional on fuel choice, which is characterized by a multinomial logit model. Separate estimation of end uses (e.g., heating, cooking) using the U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey allows for exceptionally detailed estimation of price responsiveness disaggregated by end use and fuel type. We then construct aggregate long-run elasticities, by fuel type, through a series of simulations; own-price elasticities range from -0.9 for district heat services to -2.9 for fuel oil. The simulations form the basis of a marginal cost curve for carbon mitigation, which suggests that a price of $20 per ton of carbon would result in an 8% reduction in commercial carbon emissions, and a price of $100 per ton would result in a 28% reduction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomics research: world survey of public funding.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, genomics has evolved as a scientific research discipline. Genomics research was fueled initially by government and nonprofit funding sources, later augmented by private research and development (R&D) funding. Citizens and taxpayers of many countries have funded much of the research, and have expectations about access to the resulting information and knowledge. While access to knowledge gained from all publicly funded research is desired, access is especially important for fields that have broad social impact and stimulate public dialogue. Genomics is one such field, where public concerns are raised for reasons such as health care and insurance implications, as well as personal and ancestral identification. Thus, genomics has grown rapidly as a field, and attracts considerable interest. RESULTS: One way to study the growth of a field of research is to examine its funding. This study focuses on public funding of genomics research, identifying and collecting data from major government and nonprofit organizations around the world, and updating previous estimates of world genomics research funding, including information about geographical origins. We initially identified 89 publicly funded organizations; we requested information about each organization's funding of genomics research. Of these organizations, 48 responded and 34 reported genomics research expenditures (of those that responded but did not supply information, some did not fund such research, others could not quantify it). The figures reported here include all the largest funders and we estimate that we have accounted for most of the genomics research funding from government and nonprofit sources. CONCLUSION: Aggregate spending on genomics research from 34 funding sources averaged around $2.9 billion in 2003-2006. The United States spent more than any other country on genomics research, corresponding to 35% of the overall worldwide public funding (compared to 49% US share of public health research funding for all purposes). When adjusted to genomics funding intensity, however, the United States dropped below Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Canada, as measured both by genomics research expenditure per capita and per Gross Domestic Product.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). METHODS: Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. RESULTS: Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. CONCLUSION: Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

Public goods and procreation.

Procreation is the ultimate public goods problem. Each new child affects the welfare of many other people, and some (but not all) children produce uncompensated value that future people will enjoy. This essay addresses challenges that arise if we think of procreation and parenting as public goods. These include whether individual choices are likely to lead to a socially desirable outcome, and whether changes in laws, social norms, or access to genetic engineering and embryo selection might improve the aggregate outcome of our reproductive choices.

Allopregnanolone Levels Are Inversely Associated with Self-Reported Pain Symptoms in U.S. Iraq and Afghanistan-Era Veterans: Implications for Biomarkers and Therapeutics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pain symptoms are common among Iraq/Afghanistan-era veterans, many of whom continue to experience persistent pain symptoms despite multiple pharmacological interventions. Preclinical data suggest that neurosteroids such as allopregnanolone demonstrate pronounced analgesic properties, and thus represent logical biomarker candidates and therapeutic targets for pain. Allopregnanolone is also a positive GABAA receptor modulator with anxiolytic, anticonvulsant, and neuroprotective actions in rodent models. We previously reported inverse associations between serum allopregnanolone levels and self-reported pain symptom severity in a pilot study of 82 male veterans. METHODS: The current study investigates allopregnanolone levels in a larger cohort of 485 male Iraq/Afghanistan-era veterans to attempt to replicate these initial findings. Pain symptoms were assessed by items from the Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R) querying headache, chest pain, muscle soreness, and low back pain over the past 7 days. Allopregnanolone levels were quantified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. RESULTS: Associations between pain ratings and allopregnanolone levels were examined with Poisson regression analyses, controlling for age and smoking. Bivariate nonparametric Mann–Whitney analyses examining allopregnanolone levels across high and low levels of pain were also conducted. Allopregnanolone levels were inversely associated with muscle soreness [P = 0.0028], chest pain [P = 0.032], and aggregate total pain (sum of all four pain items) [P = 0.0001]. In the bivariate analyses, allopregnanolone levels were lower in the group reporting high levels of muscle soreness [P = 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are generally consistent with our prior pilot study and suggest that allopregnanolone may function as an endogenous analgesic. Thus, exogenous supplementation with allopregnanolone could have therapeutic potential. The characterization of neurosteroid profiles may also have biomarker utility.