Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Adaptive Brain-Computer Interface Systems For Communication in People with Severe Neuromuscular Disabilities

Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have the potential to restore communication or control abilities in individuals with severe neuromuscular limitations, such as those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The role of a BCI is to extract and decode relevant information that conveys a user's intent directly from brain electro-physiological signals and translate this information into executable commands to control external devices. However, the BCI decision-making process is error-prone due to noisy electro-physiological data, representing the classic problem of efficiently transmitting and receiving information via a noisy communication channel.

This research focuses on P300-based BCIs which rely predominantly on event-related potentials (ERP) that are elicited as a function of a user's uncertainty regarding stimulus events, in either an acoustic or a visual oddball recognition task. The P300-based BCI system enables users to communicate messages from a set of choices by selecting a target character or icon that conveys a desired intent or action. P300-based BCIs have been widely researched as a communication alternative, especially in individuals with ALS who represent a target BCI user population. For the P300-based BCI, repeated data measurements are required to enhance the low signal-to-noise ratio of the elicited ERPs embedded in electroencephalography (EEG) data, in order to improve the accuracy of the target character estimation process. As a result, BCIs have relatively slower speeds when compared to other commercial assistive communication devices, and this limits BCI adoption by their target user population. The goal of this research is to develop algorithms that take into account the physical limitations of the target BCI population to improve the efficiency of ERP-based spellers for real-world communication.

In this work, it is hypothesised that building adaptive capabilities into the BCI framework can potentially give the BCI system the flexibility to improve performance by adjusting system parameters in response to changing user inputs. The research in this work addresses three potential areas for improvement within the P300 speller framework: information optimisation, target character estimation and error correction. The visual interface and its operation control the method by which the ERPs are elicited through the presentation of stimulus events. The parameters of the stimulus presentation paradigm can be modified to modulate and enhance the elicited ERPs. A new stimulus presentation paradigm is developed in order to maximise the information content that is presented to the user by tuning stimulus paradigm parameters to positively affect performance. Internally, the BCI system determines the amount of data to collect and the method by which these data are processed to estimate the user's target character. Algorithms that exploit language information are developed to enhance the target character estimation process and to correct erroneous BCI selections. In addition, a new model-based method to predict BCI performance is developed, an approach which is independent of stimulus presentation paradigm and accounts for dynamic data collection. The studies presented in this work provide evidence that the proposed methods for incorporating adaptive strategies in the three areas have the potential to significantly improve BCI communication rates, and the proposed method for predicting BCI performance provides a reliable means to pre-assess BCI performance without extensive online testing.

A New Method for Modeling Free Surface Flows and Fluid-structure Interaction with Ocean Applications

The computational modeling of ocean waves and ocean-faring devices poses numerous challenges. Among these are the need to stably and accurately represent both the fluid-fluid interface between water and air as well as the fluid-structure interfaces arising between solid devices and one or more fluids. As techniques are developed to stably and accurately balance the interactions between fluid and structural solvers at these boundaries, a similarly pressing challenge is the development of algorithms that are massively scalable and capable of performing large-scale three-dimensional simulations on reasonable time scales. This dissertation introduces two separate methods for approaching this problem, with the first focusing on the development of sophisticated fluid-fluid interface representations and the second focusing primarily on scalability and extensibility to higher-order methods.

We begin by introducing the narrow-band gradient-augmented level set method (GALSM) for incompressible multiphase Navier-Stokes flow. This is the first use of the high-order GALSM for a fluid flow application, and its reliability and accuracy in modeling ocean environments is tested extensively. The method demonstrates numerous advantages over the traditional level set method, among these a heightened conservation of fluid volume and the representation of subgrid structures.

Next, we present a finite-volume algorithm for solving the incompressible Euler equations in two and three dimensions in the presence of a flow-driven free surface and a dynamic rigid body. In this development, the chief concerns are efficiency, scalability, and extensibility (to higher-order and truly conservative methods). These priorities informed a number of important choices: The air phase is substituted by a pressure boundary condition in order to greatly reduce the size of the computational domain, a cut-cell finite-volume approach is chosen in order to minimize fluid volume loss and open the door to higher-order methods, and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is employed to focus computational effort and make large-scale 3D simulations possible. This algorithm is shown to produce robust and accurate results that are well-suited for the study of ocean waves and the development of wave energy conversion (WEC) devices.