RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Host gene expression classifiers diagnose acute respiratory illness etiology.

Acute respiratory infections caused by bacterial or viral pathogens are among the most common reasons for seeking medical care. Despite improvements in pathogen-based diagnostics, most patients receive inappropriate antibiotics. Host response biomarkers offer an alternative diagnostic approach to direct antimicrobial use. This observational cohort study determined whether host gene expression patterns discriminate noninfectious from infectious illness and bacterial from viral causes of acute respiratory infection in the acute care setting. Peripheral whole blood gene expression from 273 subjects with community-onset acute respiratory infection (ARI) or noninfectious illness, as well as 44 healthy controls, was measured using microarrays. Sparse logistic regression was used to develop classifiers for bacterial ARI (71 probes), viral ARI (33 probes), or a noninfectious cause of illness (26 probes). Overall accuracy was 87% (238 of 273 concordant with clinical adjudication), which was more accurate than procalcitonin (78%, P < 0.03) and three published classifiers of bacterial versus viral infection (78 to 83%). The classifiers developed here externally validated in five publicly available data sets (AUC, 0.90 to 0.99). A sixth publicly available data set included 25 patients with co-identification of bacterial and viral pathogens. Applying the ARI classifiers defined four distinct groups: a host response to bacterial ARI, viral ARI, coinfection, and neither a bacterial nor a viral response. These findings create an opportunity to develop and use host gene expression classifiers as diagnostic platforms to combat inappropriate antibiotic use and emerging antibiotic resistance.

Viral Delivery of the Fat-1 Gene to Treat Post-Traumatic Arthritis with Diet-Induced Obesity

Post-traumatic arthritis (PTA) is arthritis that develops following joint injury, including meniscus and ligament tears. Current treatments for PTA range from over-the-counter medication to knee replacement; however, in the presence of obesity, the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as interleukin-1 (IL-1) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α,) are more elevated than in non-obese individuals. The role of fatty acids, obesity, and PTA has been examined, with omega-3 fatty acids showing promise as an anti-inflammatory after injury due to its ability to suppress IL-1 and TNF-α. Due to the difficulty in switching patients’ diets, an alternative solution to increasing omega-3 levels needs to be developed. The Fat-1 enzyme, an omega-3 desaturase that has the ability to convert omega-6 to omega-3 fatty acids, may be a good target for increasing the omega-3 levels in the body.

In the first study, we examined whether Fat-1 transgenic mice on a high-fat diet would exhibit lower levels of PTA degeneration following the destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM). Both male and female Fat-1 and wild-type (WT) littermates were put on either a control diet (10% fat) or an omega-6 rich high-fat diet (60% fat) and underwent DMM surgery. Arthritic changes were examined 12 weeks post-surgery. Fat-1 mice on both the control and high-fat diet showed protection from PTA-related degeneration, while WT mice showed severe arthritic changes. These findings suggest that the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in reducing PTA following injury, and demonstrates the potential therapeutic benefit of the Fat-1 enzyme in preventing PTA in both normal and obese patients following acute injury.

Following this, we needed to establish a translatable delivery mechanism for getting the Fat-1 enzyme, which is not present in mammalian cells, into patients. In the second study, we examined whether anti-inflammatory gene delivery of the Fat-1 enzyme would prevent PTA following DMM surgery. In vitro testing of both lentivirus (LV) and adeno-associated virus (AAV) was completed to confirm functionality and conformation of the Fat-1 enzyme after transduction. Male WT mice were placed on an omega-6 rich high-fat diet (60% fat) and underwent DMM surgery; either local or systemic AAV injections of the Fat-1 enzyme or Luciferase, a vector control, were given immediately following surgery. 12 weeks post-surgery, arthritic changes were assessed. The systemic administration of the Fat-1 enzyme showed protection from synovial inflammation and osteophyte formation, while administration of Luciferase did not confer protection. These findings suggest the utility of gene therapy to deliver the Fat-1 enzyme, which has potential as a therapeutic for injured obese patients for the prevention of PTA.